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ARMENIA WILL CONTOL PIPELINES
Igor Muradyan
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/politics23387.html
13:51:20 - 17/09/2011
If there is oil and gas, sooner or later they will be produced. In the
1990s, after innumerable intrigues, it became known that Baku-Ceyhan
will nevertheless be built.
Interestingly, the main U.S. partners doubted the appropriateness
of their participation in this project, and Washington was torn with
doubts until the final decision on the implementation of the project.
A few months before the start of construction, Stanley Cobber,
a leading expert of the CATO think tank in Washington, highlighted
the vulnerability of this project in terms of further geopolitical
interests of the United States. At that time, it would not be delicate
and meaningful to speak about deterioration of the U.S. and Turkish
relations.
Nevertheless, the leading U.S. experts on the Near East and energy
stated than that the Near East may undergo geopolitical change,
which would suspend the pipeline. However, Bill Clinton’s
administration, along with the South Caucasian absorption, pursued
steady supply of oil to Israel, which is happening now.
Immediately after the start of construction, the U.S. interests
regarding regional security in the South Caucasus became more
substantial, and after the completion of construction security in
this region became the U.S. geostrategic priority.
Later it became known that the political role of Baku-Ceyhan had been
essentially limited. We think if the decision on this project were
made now, it simply would not exist because the Turkish routes have
been recognized as the most vulnerable.
The NABUCCO project which supposed the use of the Turkish route is
discussed in every nuance in terms of minimizing its dependence on
Turkey. For instance, it is proposed to build branches immediately
on exit from the territory of Turkey, which will not address the main
issue though.
However, if we assume that Baku-Ceyhan was not built, a comparatively
worse situation would await Armenia. First, the greater part of the
Azerbaijani oil, if not whole, would run via Russia. We see that the
supply of only 2 billion cu m Azerbaijani oil led to supply of o300
to Azerbaijan. One can only guess what Russia would have offered if
all the Azerbaijani oil had flown via Russia. Second, Armenia would
lose the chance to disrupt the operation of oil and gas pipelines in
case of war.
Hence, Azerbaijan gained huge profits and can afford major defense
expenditure, while Armenia acquired stability, as well as an important
factor to restrain Turkey and Azerbaijan.
It is a matter of time when Armenia will be able to land a destructive
blow on the complex of energy communications in the regions which
cost 40 billion dollars.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Igor Muradyan
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/politics23387.html
13:51:20 - 17/09/2011
If there is oil and gas, sooner or later they will be produced. In the
1990s, after innumerable intrigues, it became known that Baku-Ceyhan
will nevertheless be built.
Interestingly, the main U.S. partners doubted the appropriateness
of their participation in this project, and Washington was torn with
doubts until the final decision on the implementation of the project.
A few months before the start of construction, Stanley Cobber,
a leading expert of the CATO think tank in Washington, highlighted
the vulnerability of this project in terms of further geopolitical
interests of the United States. At that time, it would not be delicate
and meaningful to speak about deterioration of the U.S. and Turkish
relations.
Nevertheless, the leading U.S. experts on the Near East and energy
stated than that the Near East may undergo geopolitical change,
which would suspend the pipeline. However, Bill Clinton’s
administration, along with the South Caucasian absorption, pursued
steady supply of oil to Israel, which is happening now.
Immediately after the start of construction, the U.S. interests
regarding regional security in the South Caucasus became more
substantial, and after the completion of construction security in
this region became the U.S. geostrategic priority.
Later it became known that the political role of Baku-Ceyhan had been
essentially limited. We think if the decision on this project were
made now, it simply would not exist because the Turkish routes have
been recognized as the most vulnerable.
The NABUCCO project which supposed the use of the Turkish route is
discussed in every nuance in terms of minimizing its dependence on
Turkey. For instance, it is proposed to build branches immediately
on exit from the territory of Turkey, which will not address the main
issue though.
However, if we assume that Baku-Ceyhan was not built, a comparatively
worse situation would await Armenia. First, the greater part of the
Azerbaijani oil, if not whole, would run via Russia. We see that the
supply of only 2 billion cu m Azerbaijani oil led to supply of o300
to Azerbaijan. One can only guess what Russia would have offered if
all the Azerbaijani oil had flown via Russia. Second, Armenia would
lose the chance to disrupt the operation of oil and gas pipelines in
case of war.
Hence, Azerbaijan gained huge profits and can afford major defense
expenditure, while Armenia acquired stability, as well as an important
factor to restrain Turkey and Azerbaijan.
It is a matter of time when Armenia will be able to land a destructive
blow on the complex of energy communications in the regions which
cost 40 billion dollars.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress