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VestnikKavkaza.net
Sept 17 2011
Nagorno-Karabakh: small provocations may lead to a full scale war
The military solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is still a
possible deadly option.
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was one of the top issues on the agenda at
the conference -"Twenty Years of Independence in the South Caucasus:
Achievements and Challenges" - which was hosted by the New European
Democracies Project at the Center for Strategic and International
studies (CSIS). Participants was unanimous that situation in the
region still arises concern.
`There has been over the last year rising instability in this
conflict, significant increase in fire violations and accelerated arms
race by both sides' - pointed out Colonel Robert Hamilton of the US
Army War College. This arms race can lead to a new war. Azerbaijan,
which economy is developing much faster, is buying most advanced
military technologies, and soon will be superior militarily to
Armenia. This might tempt Baku to solve the issue by force. Erevan, on
the other hand, knowing this, might take preemptive measures, by
attacking Azeri positions. `I am not arguing it's going to be a
conscious decision', - stressed Col. Hamilton, - `but these
calculations or small incidents along the line of separation could
escalate with this kind of thoughts in the background'.
Nagorno Karabakh conflict will be discussed at the autumn session of
the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, which will take place in Croatia on
October 7-11.
Azerbaijan could become a guarantor of stability in the South Caucasus
Azerbaijan's natural resources can play a major role in revival of the
region and economic development of the neighboring countries.
According to Ariel Cohen, a Senior Fellow at the Heritage Foundation:
`The lifeblood of the economic development of the Caucasus is
energies, oil and gas. For Azerbaijan it's production and processing,
for Georgia it's transit, and, hopefully, in the future for Armenia
too it's going to be transit and possibly some processing and some
related industries'. The American political expert was speaking at a
conference - "Twenty Years of Independence in the South Caucasus:
Achievements and Challenges" - at the Center for Strategic and
International studies (CSIS)..
The reserves in the Caspian region, although are not as huge as those
of Middle East or Russia, play a very important role beyond the region
of the South Caucasus. If one takes a look at a wider picture, it's
obvious, that these reserves are significant and do make a difference.
`It makes a difference also because relatively to some parts of the
Middle East it's more stable. As BTC , despite
the criticism of many, showed, you can build a pipeline from the
Caspian to the Mediterranean and you can export these resources'.
BTC pipeline was inaugurated in May of 2005. It transports one million
barrels a day at a distance of over 1700 kilometers (approximately
1100 miles). The pipeline crosses Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey.
Georgia, as a transit country was supposed to receive over 60 million
dollars a year.
The South Caucasus draws world attention
The last few years have demonstrated a rapidly increasing world
interest towards the Caspian region and the South Caucasus in
particular. The event at CSIS - "Twenty Years of Independence in the
South Caucasus: Achievements and Challenges" - has brought together
leading American and world experts and officials. As Angela Stent,
Director at the Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies
at Georgetown University said: `The South Caucasus is a key strategic
area for Russia, for the United States, at the moment, for Europe and
increasingly for countries as Turkey and Iran'. Among these countries
Russia still has a more `robust' interest in the region than any other
country, because of its historical or geographical ties. `The US can
come and go, and it probably will come and go, but Russia will always
be there. It's a reality and you have to deal with it, when you think
about the future of the region' - said professor Stent.
However it does not mean that these countries are of less interest or
importance for Washington. The numerous Armenian diasopora has big
influence in the country and `the US remains committed to resolving
the Nogorno-Karabakh problem, probably more than some other parties
involved' - stressed professor. Relations with Azerbaijan are very
important in terms of security (post 9/11 security cooperation, the
Caspian guard the Northern distribution network) and, of course
because of its energy resources. And Georgia is sending 1500 troops to
fight along with their American colleagues in Afghanistan.
Angela Stent also confronted those who criticize the United States for
lack of interest in the region during last years. According to the
professor the White House administration has to `calibrate' its
involvement in the South Caucasus vis-à-vis the need to have
productive relations with Russia, to name some: a better access to
Afghanistan or cooperation on Iran.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/interviews/politics/17987.html
Sept 17 2011
Nagorno-Karabakh: small provocations may lead to a full scale war
The military solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is still a
possible deadly option.
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was one of the top issues on the agenda at
the conference -"Twenty Years of Independence in the South Caucasus:
Achievements and Challenges" - which was hosted by the New European
Democracies Project at the Center for Strategic and International
studies (CSIS). Participants was unanimous that situation in the
region still arises concern.
`There has been over the last year rising instability in this
conflict, significant increase in fire violations and accelerated arms
race by both sides' - pointed out Colonel Robert Hamilton of the US
Army War College. This arms race can lead to a new war. Azerbaijan,
which economy is developing much faster, is buying most advanced
military technologies, and soon will be superior militarily to
Armenia. This might tempt Baku to solve the issue by force. Erevan, on
the other hand, knowing this, might take preemptive measures, by
attacking Azeri positions. `I am not arguing it's going to be a
conscious decision', - stressed Col. Hamilton, - `but these
calculations or small incidents along the line of separation could
escalate with this kind of thoughts in the background'.
Nagorno Karabakh conflict will be discussed at the autumn session of
the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, which will take place in Croatia on
October 7-11.
Azerbaijan could become a guarantor of stability in the South Caucasus
Azerbaijan's natural resources can play a major role in revival of the
region and economic development of the neighboring countries.
According to Ariel Cohen, a Senior Fellow at the Heritage Foundation:
`The lifeblood of the economic development of the Caucasus is
energies, oil and gas. For Azerbaijan it's production and processing,
for Georgia it's transit, and, hopefully, in the future for Armenia
too it's going to be transit and possibly some processing and some
related industries'. The American political expert was speaking at a
conference - "Twenty Years of Independence in the South Caucasus:
Achievements and Challenges" - at the Center for Strategic and
International studies (CSIS)..
The reserves in the Caspian region, although are not as huge as those
of Middle East or Russia, play a very important role beyond the region
of the South Caucasus. If one takes a look at a wider picture, it's
obvious, that these reserves are significant and do make a difference.
`It makes a difference also because relatively to some parts of the
Middle East it's more stable. As BTC , despite
the criticism of many, showed, you can build a pipeline from the
Caspian to the Mediterranean and you can export these resources'.
BTC pipeline was inaugurated in May of 2005. It transports one million
barrels a day at a distance of over 1700 kilometers (approximately
1100 miles). The pipeline crosses Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey.
Georgia, as a transit country was supposed to receive over 60 million
dollars a year.
The South Caucasus draws world attention
The last few years have demonstrated a rapidly increasing world
interest towards the Caspian region and the South Caucasus in
particular. The event at CSIS - "Twenty Years of Independence in the
South Caucasus: Achievements and Challenges" - has brought together
leading American and world experts and officials. As Angela Stent,
Director at the Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies
at Georgetown University said: `The South Caucasus is a key strategic
area for Russia, for the United States, at the moment, for Europe and
increasingly for countries as Turkey and Iran'. Among these countries
Russia still has a more `robust' interest in the region than any other
country, because of its historical or geographical ties. `The US can
come and go, and it probably will come and go, but Russia will always
be there. It's a reality and you have to deal with it, when you think
about the future of the region' - said professor Stent.
However it does not mean that these countries are of less interest or
importance for Washington. The numerous Armenian diasopora has big
influence in the country and `the US remains committed to resolving
the Nogorno-Karabakh problem, probably more than some other parties
involved' - stressed professor. Relations with Azerbaijan are very
important in terms of security (post 9/11 security cooperation, the
Caspian guard the Northern distribution network) and, of course
because of its energy resources. And Georgia is sending 1500 troops to
fight along with their American colleagues in Afghanistan.
Angela Stent also confronted those who criticize the United States for
lack of interest in the region during last years. According to the
professor the White House administration has to `calibrate' its
involvement in the South Caucasus vis-à-vis the need to have
productive relations with Russia, to name some: a better access to
Afghanistan or cooperation on Iran.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/interviews/politics/17987.html