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The Washington Post
September 18, 2011 Sunday
Regional Edition
Between Turkey and Israel
Editorial: Morton Abramowitz;Henri J. Barkey;
The U.S. policy in the Middle East is f loundering. President Obama's
two most important allies in the region are on a collision course. It
will not be resolved by the State Department's injunction toTurkey and
Israel to "cool it."
Turkey's importance to Washington is clear: its involvement in NATO
and its forces in Afghanistan; its strong economic ties to northern
Iraq; its ongoing cooperation against terrorism; and, most recently,
its role in the NATO missile defense shield. The depth of the
U.S.-Turkey alliance makes the crisis in Israeli-Turkish relations one
that equally involves the United States.
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has expanded his
confrontation with Israel beyond the May 2010 Gaza flotilla incident
and into a full-scale assault on Israel's position in the region. He
recently declared that the Turkish navy will escort Turkish vessels
going to Gaza to provide aid.
Washington did not grasp where Erdogan's sustained verbal attacks on
Israel were heading. He now directly challenges our major alliance in
the Middle East, and how far he will go is unclear. Obama himself must
acknowledge that the situation is a crisis. As the political climates
in Turkey and the United States harden, Erdogan and Obama will find it
increasingly difficult to compromise.
Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said years ago that Turkey would
construct a new order in the region. Erdogan followed this with
criticism of interference in Middle Eastern affairs by "outside"
powers, a clear shot at Washington. Erdogan's rhetoric of late is
about reducing Western influence in the region and teaching Israel a
lesson for "irresponsible" or "immature" behavior.
Had Erdogan pushed only for an apology over the deaths of Turkish
citizens in the flotilla incident, Turkey's actions would be
understandable in the face of Israel's unwise decision not to
immediately resolve the problem. The recently leaked U.N. report on
the flotilla affair sought to find a way for the sides to reconcile.
Erdogan, however, is not interested in repairing the situation with
Israel.
Erdogan is calculating that, as a NATO member, a European Union
candidate country and the world's 16th-largest economy, Turkey can
move the Middle East in ways no other regional country can. He has
significantly expanded Turkey's trade and investment. He has
successfully pivoted away from Libya and Syria, where he had been
closely affiliated with the authoritarian regimes. He is wildly
popular on the Arab street, and his address to the Arab League last
Tuesday could well be a bid for the populist mantle last held by the
late Egyptian president Gamal Abdel Nasser. His vigorous battle at the
United Nations for a Palestinian statehood resolution is another step
in his effort to isolate Israel.
By threatening to militarily contest Israel's blockade of Gaza - which
was deemed legal by the U.N. Palmer Commission - the Turkish
government has laid down a serious challenge to American policy.
Danger stems not just from potential miscommunication between those
two countries but also from third parties with their own agendas,
creating conditions for confrontation.
The eastern Mediterranean is already a caldron of competing claims and
threatening rhetoric. Turkey's minister for E.U. affairs warned this
month that his country might stop Cyprus's exploration for gas and
oil, saying, "This is what we have the navy for." Lebanon's
Hezbollah-dominated government is engaged in a verbal war with Israel
over the latter's gas discoveries off the coast at Haifa. Erdogan
involved Turkey in negotiations between Cyprus and Israel on joint
exploration opportunities when he told al-Jazeera this month that
Israel would be prevented from exploiting the eastern Mediterranean's
oil and gas reserves on its own.
Washington is caught between two longtime allies. It cannot deal with
the Israelis and Turks separately. Inaction is not a real option, as
Israel could become a significant issue in the 2012 presidential
campaign, especially if the United States is defeated in its
opposition to a General Assembly vote to create a Palestinian state.
The situation will generate concern on Capitol Hill and give
Republicans another opportunity to attack Obama for not defending
American interests and Israel.
Congress could also worsen the fray by reviving legislation regarding
the Armenian genocide. A resolution recognizing the 1.5 million
Armenians killed by Ottoman Turks has repeatedly failed to garner
enough support for a floor vote. But its backers may calculate that
the worsening conditions between Israel and Turkey would prompt the
powerful Israel lobby to drop support for Turkey on this matter,
raising the likelihood that the resolution would pass. Similarly, arms
exports to Turkey will face greater scrutiny.
Obama may not have much time to prevent further deterioration. Israel
has been seeking to build ties with Asia, Europe and the Americas;
while the Arab Spring evolves, Israel is becoming increasingly
isolated as countries such as Egypt and Jordan reassess ties. It is
also floundering from the Obama administration's mishandling of the
peace process and of Israel in particular.
Obama's meeting with Erdogan on Tuesday is crucial. He can take a few
important steps. He should immediately deploy 6th Fleet ships from
Norfolk to the eastern Mediterranean to signal that the United States
will not tolerate even inadvertent naval clashes. He needs to make
clear to Erdogan that the United States will not side with Turkey
against Israel and that Turkey's current strategy risks undermining
regional stability.
Obama could offer to work with Turkey and Israel to end the partial
blockade of Gaza, provided Erdogan can persuade Hamas to abandon, once
and for all, missile barrages and violence against Israel. Such a
policy course would have wide international backing and give everyone
some of what they want.
Erdogan has a choice: He can boost his domestic and regional
popularity by deepening the confrontation with Israel or he could
think beyond that by engaging in a constructive endeavor that will
help regional stability.
Morton Abramowitz, a senior fellow at the Century Foundation, was U.S.
ambassador to Turkey from 1989 to 1991. Henri J. Barkey is a professor
of international relations at Lehigh University.
September 18, 2011 Sunday
Regional Edition
Between Turkey and Israel
Editorial: Morton Abramowitz;Henri J. Barkey;
The U.S. policy in the Middle East is f loundering. President Obama's
two most important allies in the region are on a collision course. It
will not be resolved by the State Department's injunction toTurkey and
Israel to "cool it."
Turkey's importance to Washington is clear: its involvement in NATO
and its forces in Afghanistan; its strong economic ties to northern
Iraq; its ongoing cooperation against terrorism; and, most recently,
its role in the NATO missile defense shield. The depth of the
U.S.-Turkey alliance makes the crisis in Israeli-Turkish relations one
that equally involves the United States.
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has expanded his
confrontation with Israel beyond the May 2010 Gaza flotilla incident
and into a full-scale assault on Israel's position in the region. He
recently declared that the Turkish navy will escort Turkish vessels
going to Gaza to provide aid.
Washington did not grasp where Erdogan's sustained verbal attacks on
Israel were heading. He now directly challenges our major alliance in
the Middle East, and how far he will go is unclear. Obama himself must
acknowledge that the situation is a crisis. As the political climates
in Turkey and the United States harden, Erdogan and Obama will find it
increasingly difficult to compromise.
Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said years ago that Turkey would
construct a new order in the region. Erdogan followed this with
criticism of interference in Middle Eastern affairs by "outside"
powers, a clear shot at Washington. Erdogan's rhetoric of late is
about reducing Western influence in the region and teaching Israel a
lesson for "irresponsible" or "immature" behavior.
Had Erdogan pushed only for an apology over the deaths of Turkish
citizens in the flotilla incident, Turkey's actions would be
understandable in the face of Israel's unwise decision not to
immediately resolve the problem. The recently leaked U.N. report on
the flotilla affair sought to find a way for the sides to reconcile.
Erdogan, however, is not interested in repairing the situation with
Israel.
Erdogan is calculating that, as a NATO member, a European Union
candidate country and the world's 16th-largest economy, Turkey can
move the Middle East in ways no other regional country can. He has
significantly expanded Turkey's trade and investment. He has
successfully pivoted away from Libya and Syria, where he had been
closely affiliated with the authoritarian regimes. He is wildly
popular on the Arab street, and his address to the Arab League last
Tuesday could well be a bid for the populist mantle last held by the
late Egyptian president Gamal Abdel Nasser. His vigorous battle at the
United Nations for a Palestinian statehood resolution is another step
in his effort to isolate Israel.
By threatening to militarily contest Israel's blockade of Gaza - which
was deemed legal by the U.N. Palmer Commission - the Turkish
government has laid down a serious challenge to American policy.
Danger stems not just from potential miscommunication between those
two countries but also from third parties with their own agendas,
creating conditions for confrontation.
The eastern Mediterranean is already a caldron of competing claims and
threatening rhetoric. Turkey's minister for E.U. affairs warned this
month that his country might stop Cyprus's exploration for gas and
oil, saying, "This is what we have the navy for." Lebanon's
Hezbollah-dominated government is engaged in a verbal war with Israel
over the latter's gas discoveries off the coast at Haifa. Erdogan
involved Turkey in negotiations between Cyprus and Israel on joint
exploration opportunities when he told al-Jazeera this month that
Israel would be prevented from exploiting the eastern Mediterranean's
oil and gas reserves on its own.
Washington is caught between two longtime allies. It cannot deal with
the Israelis and Turks separately. Inaction is not a real option, as
Israel could become a significant issue in the 2012 presidential
campaign, especially if the United States is defeated in its
opposition to a General Assembly vote to create a Palestinian state.
The situation will generate concern on Capitol Hill and give
Republicans another opportunity to attack Obama for not defending
American interests and Israel.
Congress could also worsen the fray by reviving legislation regarding
the Armenian genocide. A resolution recognizing the 1.5 million
Armenians killed by Ottoman Turks has repeatedly failed to garner
enough support for a floor vote. But its backers may calculate that
the worsening conditions between Israel and Turkey would prompt the
powerful Israel lobby to drop support for Turkey on this matter,
raising the likelihood that the resolution would pass. Similarly, arms
exports to Turkey will face greater scrutiny.
Obama may not have much time to prevent further deterioration. Israel
has been seeking to build ties with Asia, Europe and the Americas;
while the Arab Spring evolves, Israel is becoming increasingly
isolated as countries such as Egypt and Jordan reassess ties. It is
also floundering from the Obama administration's mishandling of the
peace process and of Israel in particular.
Obama's meeting with Erdogan on Tuesday is crucial. He can take a few
important steps. He should immediately deploy 6th Fleet ships from
Norfolk to the eastern Mediterranean to signal that the United States
will not tolerate even inadvertent naval clashes. He needs to make
clear to Erdogan that the United States will not side with Turkey
against Israel and that Turkey's current strategy risks undermining
regional stability.
Obama could offer to work with Turkey and Israel to end the partial
blockade of Gaza, provided Erdogan can persuade Hamas to abandon, once
and for all, missile barrages and violence against Israel. Such a
policy course would have wide international backing and give everyone
some of what they want.
Erdogan has a choice: He can boost his domestic and regional
popularity by deepening the confrontation with Israel or he could
think beyond that by engaging in a constructive endeavor that will
help regional stability.
Morton Abramowitz, a senior fellow at the Century Foundation, was U.S.
ambassador to Turkey from 1989 to 1991. Henri J. Barkey is a professor
of international relations at Lehigh University.