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POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENTS IN KARABAKH
The Messenger
Sept 20 2011
Georgia
According to Oxford Analytic that conducts international research,
the conflict in Karabakh, which is a serious obstacle to safety and
stability in the South Caucasus, could move into a conflict that
would be very bloody and dangerous, if any of the countries like,
Russia, Iran, or Turkey were to get involved. It could be much more
devastating than the Russian-Georgian August war in 2008. There will
be a direct threat to the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, as well
as other oil or gas pipelines. The possible military developments
might impose serious threat to the air corridor of US and NATO
operations in Afghanistan, in which supplies of military cargo pass
through Azerbaijani airspace. Georgia will be definitely touched
by the conflict; possible military developments will hinder further
democratic reforms in Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Oxford Analytic suggests that Baku is frustrated with peaceful
negotiations, as the confrontation on the bordering regions sometimes
takes on a bloody character and there are casualties. The Russian
brokered meeting in Kazan between the presidents of Azerbaijan and
Armenia brought no results there is more and more speculation in
Azerbaijan about the possibility of military solution of the conflict.
Azerbaijan spends more and more money on its military budget. In 2004,
Baku spent for defense reasons only USD 175 million, while in 2011,
the amount spent for these means reached USD 3.3 billion. This is about
twenty percent of the entire budget. The research of Oxford Analytic
suggests however that Azerbaijani military expenditure is not enough
and the level of the Azerbaijani armed forces is not commensurate
with the money spent.
The Messenger
Sept 20 2011
Georgia
According to Oxford Analytic that conducts international research,
the conflict in Karabakh, which is a serious obstacle to safety and
stability in the South Caucasus, could move into a conflict that
would be very bloody and dangerous, if any of the countries like,
Russia, Iran, or Turkey were to get involved. It could be much more
devastating than the Russian-Georgian August war in 2008. There will
be a direct threat to the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, as well
as other oil or gas pipelines. The possible military developments
might impose serious threat to the air corridor of US and NATO
operations in Afghanistan, in which supplies of military cargo pass
through Azerbaijani airspace. Georgia will be definitely touched
by the conflict; possible military developments will hinder further
democratic reforms in Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Oxford Analytic suggests that Baku is frustrated with peaceful
negotiations, as the confrontation on the bordering regions sometimes
takes on a bloody character and there are casualties. The Russian
brokered meeting in Kazan between the presidents of Azerbaijan and
Armenia brought no results there is more and more speculation in
Azerbaijan about the possibility of military solution of the conflict.
Azerbaijan spends more and more money on its military budget. In 2004,
Baku spent for defense reasons only USD 175 million, while in 2011,
the amount spent for these means reached USD 3.3 billion. This is about
twenty percent of the entire budget. The research of Oxford Analytic
suggests however that Azerbaijani military expenditure is not enough
and the level of the Azerbaijani armed forces is not commensurate
with the money spent.