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  • Partnership With Egypt Is Predicted By Turkey

    PARTNERSHIP WITH EGYPT IS PREDICTED BY TURKEY
    By Anthony Shadid

    The New York Times
    September 19, 2011 Monday

    ANKARA, Turkey -- A newly assertive Turkey offered on Sunday a vision
    of a starkly realigned Middle East, where the country's former allies
    in Syria and Israel fall into deeper isolation, and a burgeoning
    alliance with Egypt underpins a new order in a region roiled by revolt
    and revolution.

    The portrait was described by Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu
    of Turkey in an hourlong interview before he was to leave for the
    United Nations, where a contentious debate was expected this week
    over a Palestinian bid for recognition as a state. Viewed by many
    as the architect of a foreign policy that has made Turkey one
    of the most relevant players in the Muslim world, Mr. Davutoglu
    pointed to that issue and others to describe a region in the midst
    of a transformation. Turkey, he said, was "right at the center of
    everything."

    He declared that Israel was solely responsible for the near collapse in
    relations with Turkey, once an ally, and he accused Syria's president
    of lying to him after Turkish officials offered the government there
    a "last chance" to salvage power by halting its brutal crackdown
    on dissent.

    Strikingly, he predicted a partnership between Turkey and Egypt, two
    of the region's militarily strongest and most populous and influential
    countries, which he said could create a new axis of power at a time
    when American influence in the Middle East seems to be diminishing.

    "This is what we want," Mr. Davutoglu said.

    "This will not be an axis against any other country -- not Israel, not
    Iran, not any other country, but this will be an axis of democracy,
    real democracy," he added. "That will be an axis of democracy of
    the two biggest nations in our region, from the north to the south,
    from the Black Sea down to the Nile Valley in Sudan."

    His comments came after a tour last week by Turkish leaders -- Prime
    Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Mr. Davutoglu among them -- of
    Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, the three Arab countries that have undergone
    revolutions this year. His criticism of old allies and embrace of new
    ones underscored the confidence of Turkey these days, as it tries to
    position itself on the winning side in a region unrecognizable from
    a year ago.

    Unlike an anxious Israel, a skeptical Iran and a United States whose
    regional policy has been criticized as seeming muddled and even
    contradictory at times, Turkey has recovered from early missteps to
    offer itself as a model for democratic transition and economic growth
    at a time when the Middle East and northern Africa have been seized by
    radical change. The remarkably warm reception of Turkey in the Arab
    world -- a region Turks once viewed with disdain -- is a development
    almost as seismic as the Arab revolts and revolutions themselves.

    Mr. Davutoglu credited a "psychological affinity" between Turkey and
    much of the Arab world, which was ruled by the Ottoman Empire for
    four centuries from Istanbul.

    The foreign minister, 52, remains more scholar than politician,
    though he has a diplomat's knack for bridging divides. Cerebral
    and soft-spoken, he offered a speech this summer to Libyan rebels
    in Benghazi -- in Arabic. Soon after the revolution in Tunisia, he
    hailed the people there as the "sons of Ibn Khaldoun," one of the
    Arab world's greatest philosophers, born in Tunis in the 14th century.

    "We're not here to teach you," he said. "You know what to do. Ibn
    Khaldoun's grandsons deserve the best political system."

    That sense of cultural affinity has facilitated Turkey's entry into
    the region, as has the successful model of Mr. Davutoglu's Justice
    and Development Party, whose deeply pious leaders have won three
    consecutive elections, presided over a booming economy and inaugurated
    reform that has made Turkey a more liberal, modern and confident
    place. Mr. Erdogan's defense of Palestinian rights and criticism of
    Israel -- relations between Turkey and Israel collapsed after Israeli
    troops killed nine people on board a Turkish flotilla trying to break
    the blockade of Gaza in 2010 -- has bolstered his popularity.

    Last week, Mr. Erdogan was afforded a rapturous welcome in Egypt,
    where thoroughfares were adorned with his billboard-size portraits.

    ("Lend us Erdogan for a month!" wrote a columnist in Al Wafd, an
    Egyptian newspaper.)

    Mr. Davutolglu, who accompanied him there, said Egypt would become the
    focus of Turkish efforts, as an older American-backed order, buttressed
    by Israel, Saudi Arabia and, to a lesser extent, prerevolutionary
    Egypt, begins to crumble. On the vote over a Palestinian state, the
    United States, in particular, finds itself almost completely isolated.

    He also predicted that Turkey's $1.5 billion investment in Egypt
    would grow to $5 billion within two years and that total trade would
    increase to $5 billion, from $3.5 billion now, by the end of 2012,
    then $10 billion by 2015. As if to underscore the importance Turkey
    saw in economic cooperation, 280 businessmen accompanied the Turkish
    delegation, and Mr. Davutoglu said they signed about $1 billion in
    contracts in a single day.

    "For democracy, we need a strong economy," he said.

    Other countries -- Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel -- would undoubtedly
    look upon an Egyptian-Turkish axis with alarm. Just a year ago,
    Egypt's own president, Hosni Mubarak, viewed Turkey, and Mr. Erdogan
    in particular, with skepticism and suspicion. But in the view of Mr.

    Davutoglu, such an alliance was a force for stability.

    "For the regional balance of power, we want to have a strong, very
    strong Egypt," said Mr. Davutoglu, who has visited the Egyptian
    capital five times since Mr. Mubarak was overthrown in February.

    "Some people may think Egypt and Turkey are competing. No. This is
    our strategic decision. We want a strong Egypt now."

    The phrase "zero problems" is a famous dictum written by Mr.

    Davutoglu, who served as Mr. Erdogan's chief foreign policy adviser
    before becoming foreign minister. By it, he meant that Turkey would
    strive to end conflicts with its neighbors. Successes have been few.

    Problems remain with Armenia, and Turkey was unable to resolve the
    conflict in Cyprus, still divided into Greek and Turkish zones.

    Turkey's agreement to host a radar installation as part of a NATO
    missile defense system has rankled neighboring Iran.

    Most spectacularly, its relations with Israel collapsed after the
    Israeli government refused a series of Turkish demands that followed
    the attack on the boat: an apology, compensation for the victims and
    a lifting of Israel's blockade on the Gaza Strip.

    "Nobody can blame Turkey or any other country in the region for its
    isolation," he said of Israel. "It was Israel and the government's
    decision to isolate themselves. And they will be isolated even more
    if they continue this policy of rejecting any proposal."

    Caught by surprise by the Arab revolts -- as pretty much everyone
    was -- Turkey staggered. At least $15 billion in investments were
    lost in the civil war in Libya, and Turkish diplomats initially
    opposed NATO's intervention. For years, Turkey cultivated ties with
    Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad, seeing Syria as its fulcrum for
    integrating the region's economies. Mr. Erdogan and Mr. Assad counted
    themselves as friends.

    Syria's failure to -- as Mr. Davutoglu put it -- heed Turkey's advice
    has wrecked relations, and Turkey is now hosting Syrian opposition
    conferences and groups.

    Last month, in meetings that lasted more than six hours, Mr. Davutoglu
    said Mr. Assad agreed on a Turkish road map -- announcing a
    specific date for parliamentary elections by year's end, repealing
    a constitutional provision that enshrined power in the ruling Baath
    Party, drafting a constitution by the newly elected Parliament and
    then holding another election once the constitution decided between
    a presidential or a parliamentary system. Despite face-to-face
    assurances, Mr. Assad did not follow through.

    "For us, that was the last chance," Mr. Davutoglu said.

    Asked if he felt betrayed, he replied, "Yes, of course."

    Mr. Davutoglu accused Mr. Assad of "not fulfilling promises and not
    telling the truth."

    "This is the illusion of autocratic regimes," he said. "They think that
    in a few days they will control the situation. Not today, but tomorrow,
    next week, next month. They don't see. And this is a vicious circle."

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