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Political Dialogue Breaks Down In Armenia

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  • Political Dialogue Breaks Down In Armenia

    POLITICAL DIALOGUE BREAKS DOWN IN ARMENIA
    By Armen Poghosyan

    Institute of War & Peace Reporting IWPR
    CAUCASUS REPORTING SERVICE, No. 609
    September 19, 2011

    Main opposition party walks away from talks with government.

    After highly-publicised talks between the Armenian government and
    the largest opposition party collapsed, analysts said the renewal of
    hostilities masked a desire by both sides to position themselves for
    a parliamentary election next May.

    The dialogue was intended to bring the Armenian National Congress,
    ANC, into the political process, eliminating the risk of mass protests
    and the kind of violence that followed the 2008 presidential ballot.

    Ten people died in the election, which defeated ANC candidate Levon
    Ter-Petrosyan said was fraudulent. (For more on the start of the
    dialogue earlier this year, see Winds of Change in Armenian Politics.)

    On August 9, just three weeks into the negotiating process, the
    ANC suspended its participation after seven of its young members
    were involved in a clash. One activist, Tigran Arakelyan, is still
    behind bars.

    "It was clear to us that even if the dialogue went well, it wasn't
    going to lead to the result we wanted, as that would depend on
    the amount of pressure that the people applied," party leader
    Ter-Petrosyan told supporters on September 9. "The cessation or even
    final cancellation of the dialogue does not, therefore, change our
    plans. Our goal remains the same - an immediate change of government,
    forced by unstoppable mass protests, and the full deconstruction of
    this criminal state."

    Ter-Petrosyan said that if Arakelyan was released soon, the ANC would
    still be prepared to come back to the negotiating table. "If not, we
    will withdraw from the talks and we will be forced to employ another
    kind of language to address the authorities."

    Arman Hakobyan, an analyst with the Centre for Political Studies in
    Yerevan, said the clash suggested that one of the two sides had not
    entered the talks in good faith.

    "If - as the authorities insist - the young people are to blame for
    committing acts of hooliganism against the guardians of law and order,
    then the ANC did not want to pursue the dialogue. But if they are
    blameless and it was the police themselves who provoked the incident,
    as the ANC says, then one can conclude that the authorities didn't
    want to continue with the dialogue," he said.

    Hakobyan concluded, "It isn't really important which side is in the
    right, since this shows that at least one of them wasn't serious
    about the dialogue. That being the case, I don't imagine the public
    will invest great hopes in the dialogue."

    Opposition leaders has always said September was the end date by which
    the talks must produce results, otherwise they would return to their
    earlier demand for immediate presidential and parliamentary elections.

    The ruling Republican Party is not taking such threats very seriously,
    however. Its deputy leader, Galust Sahakyan, accused the ANC of using
    Tigran Arakelyan's detention as a pretext to get out of the talks.

    "I think the ANC has placed itself in a difficult situation and now
    it isn't sure what to do," he said. "They have worked out that the
    dialogue isn't going to produce the results they want. There won't
    be any early elections, time is going by, and they have a dwindling
    number of supporters."

    Sahakyan predicted that Ter-Petrosyan's party would become increasingly
    combative, saying, "As election day draws closer, the ANC will make
    ever tougher statements so as to win more seats in parliament. I
    think that's natural. At the same time, I favour continuation of the
    dialogue, although I don't think that Armenia will suffer greatly if
    it is cancelled."

    Davit Hovhannisyan, a political analyst and former diplomat, expressed
    regret at the breakdown of talks.

    "This dialogue was an important process between these two political
    forces, and held out hope of some kind of joint agreement on launching
    a process to tackle problems facing our society. The collapse of the
    dialogue shows this is impossible," he said.

    Stepan Safaryan, who heads the parliamentary opposition Heritage
    party, which was not involved in the dialogue, suggested that the
    international community - specifically the Parliamentary Assembly of
    the Council of Europe - could play a role in encouraging a return to
    the negotiating table. "Neither side would then wish to break off the
    dialogue and run into problems with the Council of Europe," he argued.

    Ultimately, Safaryan said, "I don't think that a dialogue will lead
    to any major changes in the political life of the country as a whole.

    Even now, we can see that competition between political forces will
    become even fiercer in the build-up to the election. And it's obvious
    that the government's main aim is to replicate itself."

    Hovhannisyan agreed that things were likely to hot up.

    "I think the political situation will flare up before the election.

    The current dangerous trends will become more acute because... there
    are no mitigating factors, which could only come into being if
    the monopoly system was dismantled. I don't see any steps in that
    direction," he said.

    "The domestic political situation will therefore deteriorate, peaking
    when social and economic problems are at their worst. As a rule,
    that happens in winter."

    Armen Poghosyan is a freelance journalist in Armenia.

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