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BAKU FACES DIFFICULT CHOICE BETWEEN TURKEY AND ISRAEL
by Shahin Abbasov
EurasiaNet.org
Sept 26 2011
NY
Policymakers in Azerbaijan are facing a dilemma: can an enemy of a
friend be a friend? Specifically, can Baku maintain cordial relations
with both Turkey and Israel at the same time?
Signs are emerging that Baku is facing pressure to make a public
choice between Turkey, its most important strategic ally, and Israel,
with whom Azerbaijan in recent years has developed close diplomatic,
economic and military ties.
Turkish-Israeli ties nosedived after nine Turkish citizens died during
a 2010 Israeli attack on an aid boat traveling to the blockaded
Palestinian city of Gaza. Since then, both countries have recalled
their ambassadors, and Turkey has expressed support for recognition
of United Nations membership for Palestine. To repair what were once
friendly relations with Jerusalem, Ankara has demanded a full apology
from Israel for the 2010 attack and the end of its embargo on Gaza.
Now, Turkey is turning to its longtime strategic ally, Azerbaijan,
for support on that front. In a September 19 interview with the
government-friendly ANS TV, Turkish Ambassador Khulusi Kylych called on
"brother Azerbaijan" to "reconsider its relations with this country,"
referring to Israel.
"This issue concerns every citizen of Turkey and it should be reflected
in [Azerbaijani-Israeli] relations," Kylych asserted. Just as Turkey
closed its borders with Armenia in 1991 to support Azerbaijan during
its war with Yerevan over the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh, so
Baku, in effect, now should sever close ties with Israel, he continued.
But that request is more easily made than met.
Azerbaijan is one of the few Muslim countries with relatively extensive
ties with Israel, including the co-production and sale of military
equipment. Israel also ranks as the second largest importer of
Azerbaijani oil (after Italy), taking in 6.5 million tons per year -
an amount that accounts for roughly 30 percent of Israel's oil needs,
according to Azerbaijani government statistics.
Kylych touched on that link, hinting at the possibility that Turkey
could bring pressure to bear on Israel's oil supplies via the
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline. "We know about the Azerbaijani oil
transit to Israel via the Turkish [port of] Ceyhan," he said. "Israel
should think about it."
Baku may well be thinking about it, too -- and, beyond that,
to Turkey's role as a trade avenue to the West, via Georgia, for
Azerbaijani oil, gas and other goods. Disagreements over the transit
of Azerbaijani gas already mar relations with Ankara; conceivably,
scant interest exists for Israel to become another sore point.
Commenting to EurasiaNet.org about Ambassador Kylych's interview,
Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry spokesperson Elman Abdullayev stuck to the
diplomatic and obvious. "Turkey and Azerbaijan are brotherly nations,"
he observed. "Turkey is one of the strongest countries in the region
and has an influence on regional processes." Officials have made no
other comments.
Israel has made its position known. In a September 17 interview with
ANS TV, Israeli Ambassador Michael Lavon-Lotem argued that Azerbaijan
and Israel's close ties "cannot be the basis for a third country's
interests."
Unlike Azerbaijan's southern neighbor, Iran, which also has pushed
Baku to back away from Israel, Turkey, which shares deep cultural
ties with Azerbaijan, could prove more difficult to ignore.
Analyst Leyla Aliyeva, president of the Center for National and
International Studies, a Baku think-tank, believes that Baku simply
will try to avoid situations in which it would be required to choose
between Turkey and Israel. "Baku will be trying to keep the status
quo of its relations with both countries," Aliyeva said.
If it manages to preserve that status quo, some see a chance for
Azerbaijan to act as a mediator between Turkey and Israel. "Israel
should soften its position [on aid to Gaza] and Azerbaijan should
very diplomatically explain to Tel Aviv that its position is wrong,"
independent MP Musa Gasimly told the SalamNews agency. "Because a
further escalation will harm all sides."
So far, Azerbaijani opposition leaders have strongly supported Turkey
in its war of words with Israel. A September 16 statement from the
Public Chamber, a grouping of the country's largest opposition parties,
asserted that "Turkey is right" for reducing its ties with Jerusalem
after the Mavi Marmara http://www.eurasianet.org/node/63628 incident.
But pro-government analyst Mubariz Akhmedoglu, head of the Center for
Political Innovations, doubts that Baku will follow Ankara's wishes.
"If Azerbaijan supports Turkey on this issue, it could only harm
Turkish-Israeli relations" by fueling Israeli anger, Akhmedoglu said.
Akhmedoglu reasons that the dispute between Ankara and Jerusalem
is just a battle for influence in the Middle East. "We should not
interfere. . . . At any time, Ankara could normalize relations with
Israel. And where would that leave Azerbaijan?"
Such a difference of opinions only emphasizes the difficult choice that
faces Baku, said Elhan Shahinoglu, director of Baku's Atlas research
center. "Our government is in a tough situation," Shahinoglu said.
Editor's note: Shahin Abbasov is a freelance reporter based in Baku and
a board member of the Open Society Assistance Foundation-Azerbaijan.
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/64224
by Shahin Abbasov
EurasiaNet.org
Sept 26 2011
NY
Policymakers in Azerbaijan are facing a dilemma: can an enemy of a
friend be a friend? Specifically, can Baku maintain cordial relations
with both Turkey and Israel at the same time?
Signs are emerging that Baku is facing pressure to make a public
choice between Turkey, its most important strategic ally, and Israel,
with whom Azerbaijan in recent years has developed close diplomatic,
economic and military ties.
Turkish-Israeli ties nosedived after nine Turkish citizens died during
a 2010 Israeli attack on an aid boat traveling to the blockaded
Palestinian city of Gaza. Since then, both countries have recalled
their ambassadors, and Turkey has expressed support for recognition
of United Nations membership for Palestine. To repair what were once
friendly relations with Jerusalem, Ankara has demanded a full apology
from Israel for the 2010 attack and the end of its embargo on Gaza.
Now, Turkey is turning to its longtime strategic ally, Azerbaijan,
for support on that front. In a September 19 interview with the
government-friendly ANS TV, Turkish Ambassador Khulusi Kylych called on
"brother Azerbaijan" to "reconsider its relations with this country,"
referring to Israel.
"This issue concerns every citizen of Turkey and it should be reflected
in [Azerbaijani-Israeli] relations," Kylych asserted. Just as Turkey
closed its borders with Armenia in 1991 to support Azerbaijan during
its war with Yerevan over the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh, so
Baku, in effect, now should sever close ties with Israel, he continued.
But that request is more easily made than met.
Azerbaijan is one of the few Muslim countries with relatively extensive
ties with Israel, including the co-production and sale of military
equipment. Israel also ranks as the second largest importer of
Azerbaijani oil (after Italy), taking in 6.5 million tons per year -
an amount that accounts for roughly 30 percent of Israel's oil needs,
according to Azerbaijani government statistics.
Kylych touched on that link, hinting at the possibility that Turkey
could bring pressure to bear on Israel's oil supplies via the
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline. "We know about the Azerbaijani oil
transit to Israel via the Turkish [port of] Ceyhan," he said. "Israel
should think about it."
Baku may well be thinking about it, too -- and, beyond that,
to Turkey's role as a trade avenue to the West, via Georgia, for
Azerbaijani oil, gas and other goods. Disagreements over the transit
of Azerbaijani gas already mar relations with Ankara; conceivably,
scant interest exists for Israel to become another sore point.
Commenting to EurasiaNet.org about Ambassador Kylych's interview,
Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry spokesperson Elman Abdullayev stuck to the
diplomatic and obvious. "Turkey and Azerbaijan are brotherly nations,"
he observed. "Turkey is one of the strongest countries in the region
and has an influence on regional processes." Officials have made no
other comments.
Israel has made its position known. In a September 17 interview with
ANS TV, Israeli Ambassador Michael Lavon-Lotem argued that Azerbaijan
and Israel's close ties "cannot be the basis for a third country's
interests."
Unlike Azerbaijan's southern neighbor, Iran, which also has pushed
Baku to back away from Israel, Turkey, which shares deep cultural
ties with Azerbaijan, could prove more difficult to ignore.
Analyst Leyla Aliyeva, president of the Center for National and
International Studies, a Baku think-tank, believes that Baku simply
will try to avoid situations in which it would be required to choose
between Turkey and Israel. "Baku will be trying to keep the status
quo of its relations with both countries," Aliyeva said.
If it manages to preserve that status quo, some see a chance for
Azerbaijan to act as a mediator between Turkey and Israel. "Israel
should soften its position [on aid to Gaza] and Azerbaijan should
very diplomatically explain to Tel Aviv that its position is wrong,"
independent MP Musa Gasimly told the SalamNews agency. "Because a
further escalation will harm all sides."
So far, Azerbaijani opposition leaders have strongly supported Turkey
in its war of words with Israel. A September 16 statement from the
Public Chamber, a grouping of the country's largest opposition parties,
asserted that "Turkey is right" for reducing its ties with Jerusalem
after the Mavi Marmara http://www.eurasianet.org/node/63628 incident.
But pro-government analyst Mubariz Akhmedoglu, head of the Center for
Political Innovations, doubts that Baku will follow Ankara's wishes.
"If Azerbaijan supports Turkey on this issue, it could only harm
Turkish-Israeli relations" by fueling Israeli anger, Akhmedoglu said.
Akhmedoglu reasons that the dispute between Ankara and Jerusalem
is just a battle for influence in the Middle East. "We should not
interfere. . . . At any time, Ankara could normalize relations with
Israel. And where would that leave Azerbaijan?"
Such a difference of opinions only emphasizes the difficult choice that
faces Baku, said Elhan Shahinoglu, director of Baku's Atlas research
center. "Our government is in a tough situation," Shahinoglu said.
Editor's note: Shahin Abbasov is a freelance reporter based in Baku and
a board member of the Open Society Assistance Foundation-Azerbaijan.
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/64224