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Wikileaks: Azerbaijan `terrified' by potential Armenian attack
by Emil Sanamyan
http://www.reporter.am/go/article/2012-03-31-wikileaks-azerbaijan--terrified--by-potential-armenian-attack
Published: Saturday March 31, 2012
Presidents of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan talk at the winter resort
in Sochi in 2011. Kremlin.ru
Czech energy envoy Vaclav Bartuska (l.) and Stratfor's Reva Bhalla .
RFERL and Coloradowheat.org
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Wikileaks: Armenians can't be defeated by Azerbaijan
http://www.reporter.am/go/article/2011-02-22-wikileaks-armenians-can-t-be-defeated-by-azerbaijan
Washington - Despite record growth in military spending and frequently
heard threats by top officials to resume hostilities in Karabakh,
Azerbaijani leadership is said to be "terrified" by a prospect of an
Armenian military attack, a Stratfor memo made available via Wikileaks
revealed.
The memo was prepared by Reva Bhalla, Stratfor's director of analysis,
following her August 2010 meeting with a source described as
"Ambassador-at-large for energy security, Czech Republic." While the
official is not named in the memo, Vaclav Bartuska has been the Czech
envoy on energy security for the last several years.
The Czech official reportedly told Bhalla that "It is remarkable to
what degree Azerbaijan is under Russian influence. THey are thinking
about their survival. The Azerbaijanis cannot agree to a final deal on
Shah Deniz II" natural gas field being developed in the Caspian by BP
and whose output is sought by Russia and Western energy consumers.
"When I was in Baku recently, they showed me a 3-D topographic map of
Armenia, AZ [Azerbaijan], Nagorno [Karabakh]," the Czech related. "You
can see very clearly that once (and if) the Armenians cross over with
Russian backing, it is a flat path to Baku. The Russians told them
during the Georgia war that Georgia could just be the first stop...
pretty direct threat. The Azerbaijanis are terrified of this."
According to press reports, in June 2010 Bartuska participated in the
Baku oil and gas conference annually organized by the Azerbaijani
government.
Bhalla's memo was part of the Stratfor e-mail cache obtained last
December by internet hacking group known as the Anonymous.
Last year, speaking on the third anniversary of the Georgia war,
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev argued that the 2008 war taught
parties to the Karabakh conflict "a very serious lesson" that it was
"better to conduct endless talks" than fight even a few days of war.
And State Department cables also released by Wikileaks made clear that
in U.S. assessment, despite the military build-up and threatening
rhetoric, Azerbaijan remains incapable of launching a successful
military campaign against Armenia.
by Emil Sanamyan
http://www.reporter.am/go/article/2012-03-31-wikileaks-azerbaijan--terrified--by-potential-armenian-attack
Published: Saturday March 31, 2012
Presidents of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan talk at the winter resort
in Sochi in 2011. Kremlin.ru
Czech energy envoy Vaclav Bartuska (l.) and Stratfor's Reva Bhalla .
RFERL and Coloradowheat.org
Related Articles
Medvedev: Georgia war "very serious lesson" for Azerbaijan, Armenia
http://www.reporter.am/go/article/2011-08-05-medvedev-georgia-war--very-serious-lesson--for-azerbaijan-armenia
Wikileaks: Armenians can't be defeated by Azerbaijan
http://www.reporter.am/go/article/2011-02-22-wikileaks-armenians-can-t-be-defeated-by-azerbaijan
Washington - Despite record growth in military spending and frequently
heard threats by top officials to resume hostilities in Karabakh,
Azerbaijani leadership is said to be "terrified" by a prospect of an
Armenian military attack, a Stratfor memo made available via Wikileaks
revealed.
The memo was prepared by Reva Bhalla, Stratfor's director of analysis,
following her August 2010 meeting with a source described as
"Ambassador-at-large for energy security, Czech Republic." While the
official is not named in the memo, Vaclav Bartuska has been the Czech
envoy on energy security for the last several years.
The Czech official reportedly told Bhalla that "It is remarkable to
what degree Azerbaijan is under Russian influence. THey are thinking
about their survival. The Azerbaijanis cannot agree to a final deal on
Shah Deniz II" natural gas field being developed in the Caspian by BP
and whose output is sought by Russia and Western energy consumers.
"When I was in Baku recently, they showed me a 3-D topographic map of
Armenia, AZ [Azerbaijan], Nagorno [Karabakh]," the Czech related. "You
can see very clearly that once (and if) the Armenians cross over with
Russian backing, it is a flat path to Baku. The Russians told them
during the Georgia war that Georgia could just be the first stop...
pretty direct threat. The Azerbaijanis are terrified of this."
According to press reports, in June 2010 Bartuska participated in the
Baku oil and gas conference annually organized by the Azerbaijani
government.
Bhalla's memo was part of the Stratfor e-mail cache obtained last
December by internet hacking group known as the Anonymous.
Last year, speaking on the third anniversary of the Georgia war,
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev argued that the 2008 war taught
parties to the Karabakh conflict "a very serious lesson" that it was
"better to conduct endless talks" than fight even a few days of war.
And State Department cables also released by Wikileaks made clear that
in U.S. assessment, despite the military build-up and threatening
rhetoric, Azerbaijan remains incapable of launching a successful
military campaign against Armenia.