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FORMER BUSH ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL MICHAEL RUBIN COMMENTS ON AZERBAIJANI-ISRAELI RELATIONS
Turan
April 2, 2012
WASHINGTON, DC. March 30, 2012: TURAN's Washington, DC correspondent
Alakbar Raufoglu interviewed Michael Rubin, a resident scholar at
the American Enterprise Institute who worked as a Pentagon adviser
on Iran and Iraq during the first administration of George W. Bush:
According to the new article at the Foreign Policy, Israel has gained
access to airfields in Azerbaijan near Iran borders, which it could
use to make more feasible its attack on Iran. So, if these new reports
are correct, then "the United States now believes that Israel has been
granted access to air bases in Azerbaijan"- what does it mean? Why
Azerbaijan? Taking into consideration that Azerbaijan - which shares
a long border with Iran, is also threatened by Iran's nukes.
First, it's important to consider the source: The article was written
by Mark Perry who, like Seymour Hersh, has a habit of exaggerating.
But, Israel and Azerbaijan have long had strong relations for
practical reasons: They both faced invasion by hostile powers upon
their independence, and they continue to face neighbors who seek to
undermine their stability.
It is in Azerbaijan's interests to cultivate relations with the
outside world if nothing else than to preserve its independence. This
is a common strategy among small states surrounded by much larger
countries. Kuwait, for example, has always maintained its freedom by
refusing to accept the dictates of Saudi Arabia, Iran, or Iraq. Qatar,
too, has maintained its independence by refusing to be either a Saudi
or Iranian puppet-even establishing informal relations with Israel.
In comparison, Armenia has allowed itself to become a virtual satellite
of Russia and Wikileaks documents also show how it has subordinated
itself to Iranian interests. It has lost much of its independence
and is distrusted in the West.
Ultimately, the only way for Azerbaijan to maintain the respect of
Iran is to be independent of it and if that requires maintaining strong
relations with Israel and the United States, as far as I'm concerned,
that's great for Washington and good for Baku.
There are some reports in the Israel media claiming the US is leaking
this classified information in order to dissuade Israel. So why is the
US doing that? Is Israel does take advantage of Azerbaijani airfields,
what is that mean for the US?
The distrust between the United States and Israel has not been this low
since the Eisenhower administration in the 1950s. The Israelis suspect
that the Obama administration has reconciled itself to a nuclear Iran
and that if they forewarn the Americans of any military strike on
Iran, the White House will leak word and undercut the surprise upon
which the Israelis depend. The Obama administration, meanwhile, fears
that an Israeli strike will be a strategic disaster, and would raise
the price of oil in the run-up to the November elections. If Israel
were able to access the Azerbaijani airfields, Israel would be able
to strike deep into Iran with greater surprise and with less need
for refueling. If the Obama administration or the U.S. intelligence
community did leak word of secret Israel-Azerbaijan dealings, then
the purpose was to make it harder for Israel to act with surprise
and to increase Iranian pressure on Azerbaijan.
Regardless of their accuracy, such leaks are a betrayal of
U.S.-Azerbaijan trust and inexcusable.
Baku officials say the country will never allow use its territory
against Iran. Some believe that these whole is about arming Azerbaijan
for a looming "next war" with Armenia and providing them deterrence
against Iranian meddling with their internal affairs. Then it's
about Israel improving its tactical capabilities vis-a-vis an Iranian
strike...
That may very well be a more plausible explanation. The Armenians
receive assistance from Iran, and so it would make sense if
Azerbaijan could access Israeli weaponry and training. Clearly,
neither Armenia nor Russia are sincere about ending the occupation
of Nagorno-Karabakh. Turkey is occupied elsewhere, and so it makes
perfect sense for Azerbaijan to reach out to friends to right a wrong
that Azerbaijan has suffered for two decades (Turan).
Turan
April 2, 2012
WASHINGTON, DC. March 30, 2012: TURAN's Washington, DC correspondent
Alakbar Raufoglu interviewed Michael Rubin, a resident scholar at
the American Enterprise Institute who worked as a Pentagon adviser
on Iran and Iraq during the first administration of George W. Bush:
According to the new article at the Foreign Policy, Israel has gained
access to airfields in Azerbaijan near Iran borders, which it could
use to make more feasible its attack on Iran. So, if these new reports
are correct, then "the United States now believes that Israel has been
granted access to air bases in Azerbaijan"- what does it mean? Why
Azerbaijan? Taking into consideration that Azerbaijan - which shares
a long border with Iran, is also threatened by Iran's nukes.
First, it's important to consider the source: The article was written
by Mark Perry who, like Seymour Hersh, has a habit of exaggerating.
But, Israel and Azerbaijan have long had strong relations for
practical reasons: They both faced invasion by hostile powers upon
their independence, and they continue to face neighbors who seek to
undermine their stability.
It is in Azerbaijan's interests to cultivate relations with the
outside world if nothing else than to preserve its independence. This
is a common strategy among small states surrounded by much larger
countries. Kuwait, for example, has always maintained its freedom by
refusing to accept the dictates of Saudi Arabia, Iran, or Iraq. Qatar,
too, has maintained its independence by refusing to be either a Saudi
or Iranian puppet-even establishing informal relations with Israel.
In comparison, Armenia has allowed itself to become a virtual satellite
of Russia and Wikileaks documents also show how it has subordinated
itself to Iranian interests. It has lost much of its independence
and is distrusted in the West.
Ultimately, the only way for Azerbaijan to maintain the respect of
Iran is to be independent of it and if that requires maintaining strong
relations with Israel and the United States, as far as I'm concerned,
that's great for Washington and good for Baku.
There are some reports in the Israel media claiming the US is leaking
this classified information in order to dissuade Israel. So why is the
US doing that? Is Israel does take advantage of Azerbaijani airfields,
what is that mean for the US?
The distrust between the United States and Israel has not been this low
since the Eisenhower administration in the 1950s. The Israelis suspect
that the Obama administration has reconciled itself to a nuclear Iran
and that if they forewarn the Americans of any military strike on
Iran, the White House will leak word and undercut the surprise upon
which the Israelis depend. The Obama administration, meanwhile, fears
that an Israeli strike will be a strategic disaster, and would raise
the price of oil in the run-up to the November elections. If Israel
were able to access the Azerbaijani airfields, Israel would be able
to strike deep into Iran with greater surprise and with less need
for refueling. If the Obama administration or the U.S. intelligence
community did leak word of secret Israel-Azerbaijan dealings, then
the purpose was to make it harder for Israel to act with surprise
and to increase Iranian pressure on Azerbaijan.
Regardless of their accuracy, such leaks are a betrayal of
U.S.-Azerbaijan trust and inexcusable.
Baku officials say the country will never allow use its territory
against Iran. Some believe that these whole is about arming Azerbaijan
for a looming "next war" with Armenia and providing them deterrence
against Iranian meddling with their internal affairs. Then it's
about Israel improving its tactical capabilities vis-a-vis an Iranian
strike...
That may very well be a more plausible explanation. The Armenians
receive assistance from Iran, and so it would make sense if
Azerbaijan could access Israeli weaponry and training. Clearly,
neither Armenia nor Russia are sincere about ending the occupation
of Nagorno-Karabakh. Turkey is occupied elsewhere, and so it makes
perfect sense for Azerbaijan to reach out to friends to right a wrong
that Azerbaijan has suffered for two decades (Turan).