Tweet
VADIM MUKHANOV: KARABAKH TOPIC IS A SURE CHOICE FOR INTERNAL USE BOTH IN ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN
by David Stepanyan
arminfo
Friday, April 6, 12:33
ArmInfo's interview with Vadim Mukhanov, Senior Fellow at the Center
for Caucasian Studies and Regional Security, MGIMO Russia
Most analysts think that in case of Russia's withdrawal from the
South Caucasus - Armenia, Moscow may lose control also over the North
Caucasus. Do you share this opinion?
Sure, Armenia, actually, does not influence the situation in the
Russian North Caucasus. However, Armenia is one of the closest allies
and partners of Russia in the post-Soviet space. It is a member of
the CIS, CSTO.
It joined the decision to form Collective Rapid Response Forces
that was adopted soon after the august war of 2008 at the CSTO
Summit in Moscow. It is a peculiar pledge of Russia's presence in the
Transcaucasia, and its importance in the Caucasian policy of Russia is
extremely high. Bilateral relations with Russia are very important for
peaceful existence and development of the country. They were important
in 90s, they are important now and will remain prior, at least, in
the short-term outlook. The Russian factor cannot be overestimated
both in the domestic and foreign policy of Armenia, in the issues of
security and culture, economy and education. It is Russia that played
the key role in the ceasefire in the Karabakh conflict, and it is the
key link in the OSCE Minsk Group. Russia is the guarantor of security
for Armenia that is surrounded by enemies. Russia is also the biggest
foreign economic partner and creditor of Armenia. Russia's investments
in Armenia total nearly 60% of all foreign investments in the country.
Is it possible to say that the priorities of the European counties and
the USA in the South Caucasus, particularly, in the Karabakh peace
process, have certainly changed? Is the status quo still favorable
to them?
Russia is still the key peacekeeper in the Caucasus that exerts
genuine efforts to establish negotiations between the conflicting
parties. Especially now, when the priorities of the European counties
and the USA have certainly changed over the years and they are no
longer so active in the Karabakh peace process.
The status quo is not a way out of the situation, indeed. However,
the phrase "better a lean peace than a fat victory" has repeatedly
proved right. Even the militarist statements of the parties and the
fact that confrontation has turned into a 'war of military parades'
are a positive fact. Aggressive and sharp statements by various
high-ranking officials of Azerbaijan and Armenia will continue for
the coming years because they need to keep their public "warmed up"
not to lose power and attention of voters. The Karabakh topic is a
sure choice for internal use. The authorities can blame the enemy
for all the problems and promise the brightest perspectives to
the population that lived and still live in the territory of the
NKR. Many politicians bear no responsibility for their sharp and,
I'd say, risk-taking statements that may lead the region to a new
bloody war. Therefore, it seems to me that any state of conflict,
except a large-scale war, can be regarded as satisfactory and as a
certain success in the efforts of the mediators, including Russia.
The situation around Iran is still tense enough. Do you think the
military phase in the confrontation of Iran against USA and Israel
possible? Does Syria fit into the logic of the developments around
the Islamic Republic?
Situation around Iran is really tense and nervous. There is still
danger of military conflict between the USA and Israel against Iran,
but it not so high, especially in the light of the latest developments
in Syria, where the incumbent authorities demonstrated their power. So
far, the preparatory stage for the possible operation against Iran
is far from completion.
Azerbaijan is in rather a delicate situation trying to settle the
conflict with its problematic but important neighbor Iran. What are
the reasons of that confrontation and what may be its consequences?
May the Iranian problems catalyze a new war in the South Caucasus?
War against Iran will inevitably affect the situation in the Caucasus,
and Armenia as well. In this context, Yerevan needs to develop several
scenarios of developments and be ready for any of them, and even the
most pessimistic one. In the meanwhile, Azerbaijan has also found
itself in an uneasy situation: on the one hand, the U.S. partners are
not against using its territory to attack Iran, on the other hand,
Iran is a big and powerful country that has repeatedly cautioned Baku
against any unfriendly steps. The latest news on the large-scale arms
procurement by Azerbaijan, including air defense systems, means that
Baku is concerned over its security. In addition, one should not rule
out that in case of a military operation against Iran, the region may
face a real humanitarian disaster connected with large-scale migration
of the population from the Islamic Republic. Therefore, one can say
for sure that any large-scale military operation against Iran will
have an inevitable impact of the Armenian-Azerbaijani relations,
and the domestic and economic situation in all the countries in the
South Caucasus.
by David Stepanyan
arminfo
Friday, April 6, 12:33
ArmInfo's interview with Vadim Mukhanov, Senior Fellow at the Center
for Caucasian Studies and Regional Security, MGIMO Russia
Most analysts think that in case of Russia's withdrawal from the
South Caucasus - Armenia, Moscow may lose control also over the North
Caucasus. Do you share this opinion?
Sure, Armenia, actually, does not influence the situation in the
Russian North Caucasus. However, Armenia is one of the closest allies
and partners of Russia in the post-Soviet space. It is a member of
the CIS, CSTO.
It joined the decision to form Collective Rapid Response Forces
that was adopted soon after the august war of 2008 at the CSTO
Summit in Moscow. It is a peculiar pledge of Russia's presence in the
Transcaucasia, and its importance in the Caucasian policy of Russia is
extremely high. Bilateral relations with Russia are very important for
peaceful existence and development of the country. They were important
in 90s, they are important now and will remain prior, at least, in
the short-term outlook. The Russian factor cannot be overestimated
both in the domestic and foreign policy of Armenia, in the issues of
security and culture, economy and education. It is Russia that played
the key role in the ceasefire in the Karabakh conflict, and it is the
key link in the OSCE Minsk Group. Russia is the guarantor of security
for Armenia that is surrounded by enemies. Russia is also the biggest
foreign economic partner and creditor of Armenia. Russia's investments
in Armenia total nearly 60% of all foreign investments in the country.
Is it possible to say that the priorities of the European counties and
the USA in the South Caucasus, particularly, in the Karabakh peace
process, have certainly changed? Is the status quo still favorable
to them?
Russia is still the key peacekeeper in the Caucasus that exerts
genuine efforts to establish negotiations between the conflicting
parties. Especially now, when the priorities of the European counties
and the USA have certainly changed over the years and they are no
longer so active in the Karabakh peace process.
The status quo is not a way out of the situation, indeed. However,
the phrase "better a lean peace than a fat victory" has repeatedly
proved right. Even the militarist statements of the parties and the
fact that confrontation has turned into a 'war of military parades'
are a positive fact. Aggressive and sharp statements by various
high-ranking officials of Azerbaijan and Armenia will continue for
the coming years because they need to keep their public "warmed up"
not to lose power and attention of voters. The Karabakh topic is a
sure choice for internal use. The authorities can blame the enemy
for all the problems and promise the brightest perspectives to
the population that lived and still live in the territory of the
NKR. Many politicians bear no responsibility for their sharp and,
I'd say, risk-taking statements that may lead the region to a new
bloody war. Therefore, it seems to me that any state of conflict,
except a large-scale war, can be regarded as satisfactory and as a
certain success in the efforts of the mediators, including Russia.
The situation around Iran is still tense enough. Do you think the
military phase in the confrontation of Iran against USA and Israel
possible? Does Syria fit into the logic of the developments around
the Islamic Republic?
Situation around Iran is really tense and nervous. There is still
danger of military conflict between the USA and Israel against Iran,
but it not so high, especially in the light of the latest developments
in Syria, where the incumbent authorities demonstrated their power. So
far, the preparatory stage for the possible operation against Iran
is far from completion.
Azerbaijan is in rather a delicate situation trying to settle the
conflict with its problematic but important neighbor Iran. What are
the reasons of that confrontation and what may be its consequences?
May the Iranian problems catalyze a new war in the South Caucasus?
War against Iran will inevitably affect the situation in the Caucasus,
and Armenia as well. In this context, Yerevan needs to develop several
scenarios of developments and be ready for any of them, and even the
most pessimistic one. In the meanwhile, Azerbaijan has also found
itself in an uneasy situation: on the one hand, the U.S. partners are
not against using its territory to attack Iran, on the other hand,
Iran is a big and powerful country that has repeatedly cautioned Baku
against any unfriendly steps. The latest news on the large-scale arms
procurement by Azerbaijan, including air defense systems, means that
Baku is concerned over its security. In addition, one should not rule
out that in case of a military operation against Iran, the region may
face a real humanitarian disaster connected with large-scale migration
of the population from the Islamic Republic. Therefore, one can say
for sure that any large-scale military operation against Iran will
have an inevitable impact of the Armenian-Azerbaijani relations,
and the domestic and economic situation in all the countries in the
South Caucasus.