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VELVET REVOLUTION IN ARMENIA
Naira Hayrumyan
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments25766.html
Published: 17:09:08 - 10/04/2012
The jerk of which the Armenian political parties launched the election
campaign can get a powerful momentum and lead to the change of balance
of forces in the future parliament. Analysts are already trying to
foresee what kind of parliament we will have in a month.
The joining of the Prosperous Armenia Party to the initiative of
the opposition parties on the creation of a joint election staff has
changed the balance equalizing the forces of the ruling RPA and its
competitors. Proceeding from the current balance of forces, we should
presume that the future parliament will also be divided into the RPA
and the rest without evident majority, sure if the RPA does not resort
to the force-major, which is ruled out, because it will be the end.
Most likely, the RPA will reconcile with the loss of majority and
will try to present it as its democratic achievement.
But what will change after the political monopoly is abolished in
Armenia? First of all, the forces may change, say, Vartan Oskanian
may become the Speaker. The parliament's rhetoric may also change,
say its position on the Armenian and Turkish relations may toughen,
talks with Iran, Russia may be initiated, which are currently a taboo
may be launched.
Perhaps, some economic laws will be revised, the incentives for large
business, but all this hardly is worth fights for the parliament. The
question is whether the fundament of the relations in Armenia will
change and whether the new parliament will lay the pavement for the
return of the power to people to base the policy on the civil demands,
for the policy to be economic and not predatory, for Armenia's
sovereignty not to become a subject of bargaining.
There is such a chance and if Armenia misses it, it will have to
disentangle long. Since right after the parliamentary elections,
the presidential campaign will start and it should become another
proof to the absence of monopolies in Armenia.
The current system will not give up so easily, in fact, there is
a suspicion that the PAP itself is going to become a monopolist. In
this context, the deal of the last night and the sudden "marriage" are
still not ruled out. The post-election unrest, as well as post-election
announcement of impeachment to the president should not be excluded
either. Moreover, the president, in a certain scenario, may resign
to be elected again.
But if they manage to seize from the RPA hands the initiative and
force it play the general rules, the democratic mechanisms will start
operating instead of people, and then, it will really be possible to
dwell on velvet revolution in Armenia.
From: Baghdasarian
Naira Hayrumyan
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments25766.html
Published: 17:09:08 - 10/04/2012
The jerk of which the Armenian political parties launched the election
campaign can get a powerful momentum and lead to the change of balance
of forces in the future parliament. Analysts are already trying to
foresee what kind of parliament we will have in a month.
The joining of the Prosperous Armenia Party to the initiative of
the opposition parties on the creation of a joint election staff has
changed the balance equalizing the forces of the ruling RPA and its
competitors. Proceeding from the current balance of forces, we should
presume that the future parliament will also be divided into the RPA
and the rest without evident majority, sure if the RPA does not resort
to the force-major, which is ruled out, because it will be the end.
Most likely, the RPA will reconcile with the loss of majority and
will try to present it as its democratic achievement.
But what will change after the political monopoly is abolished in
Armenia? First of all, the forces may change, say, Vartan Oskanian
may become the Speaker. The parliament's rhetoric may also change,
say its position on the Armenian and Turkish relations may toughen,
talks with Iran, Russia may be initiated, which are currently a taboo
may be launched.
Perhaps, some economic laws will be revised, the incentives for large
business, but all this hardly is worth fights for the parliament. The
question is whether the fundament of the relations in Armenia will
change and whether the new parliament will lay the pavement for the
return of the power to people to base the policy on the civil demands,
for the policy to be economic and not predatory, for Armenia's
sovereignty not to become a subject of bargaining.
There is such a chance and if Armenia misses it, it will have to
disentangle long. Since right after the parliamentary elections,
the presidential campaign will start and it should become another
proof to the absence of monopolies in Armenia.
The current system will not give up so easily, in fact, there is
a suspicion that the PAP itself is going to become a monopolist. In
this context, the deal of the last night and the sudden "marriage" are
still not ruled out. The post-election unrest, as well as post-election
announcement of impeachment to the president should not be excluded
either. Moreover, the president, in a certain scenario, may resign
to be elected again.
But if they manage to seize from the RPA hands the initiative and
force it play the general rules, the democratic mechanisms will start
operating instead of people, and then, it will really be possible to
dwell on velvet revolution in Armenia.
From: Baghdasarian