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DANGEROUS "GAMES" OF AZERBAIJAN
ARMENPRESS
APRIL 10, 2012
YEREVAN
EREVAN, APRIL 10, ARMENPRESS: Last week an interesting, but not
altogether surprising, article was authored by Mark Perry on a
secret deal Israel had reached with Azerbaijan. According to Perry's
sources within the U.S. intelligence community, Azerbaijan has granted
Israeli fighter planes access to its airfields for a potential strike
on Iranian nuclear facilities, reports Armenpress citing Political
Developments Research Center. The article also suggested that access
to Azeri airfields near the Iranian border would give Israeli fighter
planes logistical advantages in carrying out attacks because Israeli
war planes would no longer have to refuel in mid-air for the flight
back to Israel. The regime in Baku was quick to deny the report and
called it 'absurd' and a 'foreign provocation' aimed at worsening
relations with official Tehran. It is ironic that the Aliyev regime
tries to pass off the blame to a foreign source as trying to ruin
relations between the two countries when in the last few months alone
Azerbaijan has made very provocative moves against Iran.
First, Azerbaijan has provided a base for Mossad agents to carry
out assassinations against Iranian nuclear scientists, and to gather
general military and intelligence reports on Iran.
Second, an initiative by certain Azeri members of parliament to rename
Azerbaijan the 'Republic of North Azerbaijan' further infuriated
Iranian officials, since it implied that the Iranian provinces of
East and West Azarbaijan are Azeri territory.
Third, the Russians lease on the Gabala radar station is coming to an
end, if Russia does not re-sign, Baku has hinted that it may lease out
the base to another country. Likely candidates are Israel or the U.S.
Moreover, the recent purchase of over $1.6 billion worth of armament
from Israel by the Azeri military did not please Iran either.
If Azerbaijan has indeed made a deal with Israel they are playing
a dangerous and potentially regime ending game. Two years ago Iran
warned official Baku not to become a staging ground for either Western
or Israeli forces to attack Iran. It was made clear that Baku would
be bombed in retaliation, and a land invasion would likely ensue
as well. Of course this would also mean that Iran would support
Armenia unconditionally in the conflict against Azerbaijan over the
independence of Artsakh. Furthermore, Russia does not want a war to
erupt against Iran either, and Azerbaijan helping bring about such
a situation would displease the Russians too. With that said, why
would Azerbaijan risk such grave possibilities in order to help Israel?
Two potential outcomes favorable to Azerbaijan come to mind.
First, Azerbaijan does not want to see Iran export Islamic theocracy
to Baku, something they have strived to prevent since establishing
diplomatic relations with Iran. Perhaps, the regime in Baku believes
that a strike against Iran may ignite a wider regional war and also
bring the U.S. into the fray as Iran would likely retaliate against
Israel. With the U.S. now involved, the Ayatollahs may be severely
weakened and possibly lose control of Iran to forces more favorable
to the West and Azerbaijan. While this may seem like a bold or even
reckless calculation by the Azeris, it could be a last ditch effort
to finally rid themselves of what they perceive as a hostile regime
in Tehran, and possibly gain territory in northern Iran.
Second, and more likely, Azerbaijan has probably been promised more
military equipment, which in all likelihood, they will attempt to use
against Armenia and Artsakh. With the Azeri military bolstered by new
armaments, the regime in Baku may decide to launch a military offensive
on Armenian positions, hoping to achieve a quick victory, all while
the attention of the world's major powers is focused upon Iran. This
reasoning of Azerbaijan seems more calculated since they think time is
not on their side and with each passing year their chance of conquering
Artsakh dims. Yet, this too is a great gamble for the Azeris because
war is unpredictable, and in case their offensive is stopped by the
Armenian military, there will not be much stopping Armenia's forward
advance to Baku, neither geographically nor politically.
It would seem that neither scenarios above are truly favorable to
Azerbaijan nor are there any definitive confirmations that a secret
deal to allow Israel to use airfields in Azerbaijan have been agreed
upon. Of course, no deal between Israel and Azerbaijan on such an
issue would be in writing, and what this author is able to piece
together from open sources is very limited in comparison to the
information available to regime strategists in Baku. However, these
three assumptions remain unchallenged: Azerbaijan continues to allow
Mossad agents to operate within its borders in order to infiltrate
and spy on Iran, Aliyev and his minions do not like the status quo
over Artsakh and wish to change it, and Israel is barely being held
back from attacking Iran.
From: A. Papazian
ARMENPRESS
APRIL 10, 2012
YEREVAN
EREVAN, APRIL 10, ARMENPRESS: Last week an interesting, but not
altogether surprising, article was authored by Mark Perry on a
secret deal Israel had reached with Azerbaijan. According to Perry's
sources within the U.S. intelligence community, Azerbaijan has granted
Israeli fighter planes access to its airfields for a potential strike
on Iranian nuclear facilities, reports Armenpress citing Political
Developments Research Center. The article also suggested that access
to Azeri airfields near the Iranian border would give Israeli fighter
planes logistical advantages in carrying out attacks because Israeli
war planes would no longer have to refuel in mid-air for the flight
back to Israel. The regime in Baku was quick to deny the report and
called it 'absurd' and a 'foreign provocation' aimed at worsening
relations with official Tehran. It is ironic that the Aliyev regime
tries to pass off the blame to a foreign source as trying to ruin
relations between the two countries when in the last few months alone
Azerbaijan has made very provocative moves against Iran.
First, Azerbaijan has provided a base for Mossad agents to carry
out assassinations against Iranian nuclear scientists, and to gather
general military and intelligence reports on Iran.
Second, an initiative by certain Azeri members of parliament to rename
Azerbaijan the 'Republic of North Azerbaijan' further infuriated
Iranian officials, since it implied that the Iranian provinces of
East and West Azarbaijan are Azeri territory.
Third, the Russians lease on the Gabala radar station is coming to an
end, if Russia does not re-sign, Baku has hinted that it may lease out
the base to another country. Likely candidates are Israel or the U.S.
Moreover, the recent purchase of over $1.6 billion worth of armament
from Israel by the Azeri military did not please Iran either.
If Azerbaijan has indeed made a deal with Israel they are playing
a dangerous and potentially regime ending game. Two years ago Iran
warned official Baku not to become a staging ground for either Western
or Israeli forces to attack Iran. It was made clear that Baku would
be bombed in retaliation, and a land invasion would likely ensue
as well. Of course this would also mean that Iran would support
Armenia unconditionally in the conflict against Azerbaijan over the
independence of Artsakh. Furthermore, Russia does not want a war to
erupt against Iran either, and Azerbaijan helping bring about such
a situation would displease the Russians too. With that said, why
would Azerbaijan risk such grave possibilities in order to help Israel?
Two potential outcomes favorable to Azerbaijan come to mind.
First, Azerbaijan does not want to see Iran export Islamic theocracy
to Baku, something they have strived to prevent since establishing
diplomatic relations with Iran. Perhaps, the regime in Baku believes
that a strike against Iran may ignite a wider regional war and also
bring the U.S. into the fray as Iran would likely retaliate against
Israel. With the U.S. now involved, the Ayatollahs may be severely
weakened and possibly lose control of Iran to forces more favorable
to the West and Azerbaijan. While this may seem like a bold or even
reckless calculation by the Azeris, it could be a last ditch effort
to finally rid themselves of what they perceive as a hostile regime
in Tehran, and possibly gain territory in northern Iran.
Second, and more likely, Azerbaijan has probably been promised more
military equipment, which in all likelihood, they will attempt to use
against Armenia and Artsakh. With the Azeri military bolstered by new
armaments, the regime in Baku may decide to launch a military offensive
on Armenian positions, hoping to achieve a quick victory, all while
the attention of the world's major powers is focused upon Iran. This
reasoning of Azerbaijan seems more calculated since they think time is
not on their side and with each passing year their chance of conquering
Artsakh dims. Yet, this too is a great gamble for the Azeris because
war is unpredictable, and in case their offensive is stopped by the
Armenian military, there will not be much stopping Armenia's forward
advance to Baku, neither geographically nor politically.
It would seem that neither scenarios above are truly favorable to
Azerbaijan nor are there any definitive confirmations that a secret
deal to allow Israel to use airfields in Azerbaijan have been agreed
upon. Of course, no deal between Israel and Azerbaijan on such an
issue would be in writing, and what this author is able to piece
together from open sources is very limited in comparison to the
information available to regime strategists in Baku. However, these
three assumptions remain unchallenged: Azerbaijan continues to allow
Mossad agents to operate within its borders in order to infiltrate
and spy on Iran, Aliyev and his minions do not like the status quo
over Artsakh and wish to change it, and Israel is barely being held
back from attacking Iran.
From: A. Papazian