Tweet
KARABAKH CONFLICT: STATUS QUO AS THE LEAST OF EVIL
By Aris Ghazinyan
ArmeniaNow
12.04.12 | 13:16
Photo: OSCE/David Challenger
Thursday, April 12, OSCE is holding a monitoring on the line of contact
of Azeri armed forces and the Defense of Army of Nagorno Karabakh
Republic; meanwhile the Armenian foreign minister is in Warsaw to
discuss the Karabakh issue settlement with OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs.
This year has seen so many similar monitoring and meetings that yet
another one wouldn't be worth reporting, if not for one circumstance:
2012 initially did not promise such activity, as all three co-chairing
countries had presidential elections to take care of.
March saw the presidential elections in Russia, France will face it
on April 22, and in the United States they are scheduled for November.
This circumstance logically minimizes mediator efforts to achieve
the conflict settlement.
Nonetheless, right from the beginning of this year the USA, France
and Russia representatives have repeatedly stated that the status
quo in the Karabakh conflict zone has exhausted itself, and it is
high time to settle the issue. What does it imply? Is it that the
co-chairing countries are really determined to settle the issue as
soon as possible?
In this connection analysts point out the April 2-3 visit of Russian
foreign minister Sergey Lavrov to Armenia and Azerbaijan. His
diplomatic voyage was of symbolic value as it was timed to the
twentieth anniversary of diplomatic relations between Russia and the
two countries of South Caucasus.
Russian political analyst Sergey Markedonov says: "The April visit
created the appearance of festive trips to both countries. But the
paradox is that the two Russia-friendly countries are divided by
an unresolved ethnic conflict, and the prospects of settlement are,
frankly, far from bright."
While in Yerevan and Baku, Lavrov said that status quo is not in the
interest of the conflicting sides.
However, Markedonov, well-known in Russia, disagrees with Lavrov:
"The truth is that the status quo is greatly in Moscow's interest, as
both Armenia and Azerbaijan are not ready to make compromises. Moscow
is trying to hold a restrained position in its relations with Yerevan
and Baku. Armenia seems like a closer partner, and is more dependent on
Russia considering the growing cooperation in the spheres of economy,
defense and security. However, Azerbaijan is Russia's most important
neighbor sharing the troubled Daghestani sector of its border and
the common Caspian Sea."
In other words, Moscow is interested in the current state of affairs
as, in case more decisive measures are taken to settle the conflict,
hostilities might be resumed, and Russia would have to take sides
with one of the parties, namely, support Armenia as a member of
Collective Security Treaty Organization. And to Russia that is the
least desirable scenario.
Lavrov's visit shortly preceded Vladimir Putin's inauguration. To some
extent it became another signal to both Baku and Yerevan, meant to
say that Moscow's interests in the South Caucasus remain unchanged,
and that Russia will keep trying to preserve status-quo and the
leveled relations with both countries.
From: A. Papazian
By Aris Ghazinyan
ArmeniaNow
12.04.12 | 13:16
Photo: OSCE/David Challenger
Thursday, April 12, OSCE is holding a monitoring on the line of contact
of Azeri armed forces and the Defense of Army of Nagorno Karabakh
Republic; meanwhile the Armenian foreign minister is in Warsaw to
discuss the Karabakh issue settlement with OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs.
This year has seen so many similar monitoring and meetings that yet
another one wouldn't be worth reporting, if not for one circumstance:
2012 initially did not promise such activity, as all three co-chairing
countries had presidential elections to take care of.
March saw the presidential elections in Russia, France will face it
on April 22, and in the United States they are scheduled for November.
This circumstance logically minimizes mediator efforts to achieve
the conflict settlement.
Nonetheless, right from the beginning of this year the USA, France
and Russia representatives have repeatedly stated that the status
quo in the Karabakh conflict zone has exhausted itself, and it is
high time to settle the issue. What does it imply? Is it that the
co-chairing countries are really determined to settle the issue as
soon as possible?
In this connection analysts point out the April 2-3 visit of Russian
foreign minister Sergey Lavrov to Armenia and Azerbaijan. His
diplomatic voyage was of symbolic value as it was timed to the
twentieth anniversary of diplomatic relations between Russia and the
two countries of South Caucasus.
Russian political analyst Sergey Markedonov says: "The April visit
created the appearance of festive trips to both countries. But the
paradox is that the two Russia-friendly countries are divided by
an unresolved ethnic conflict, and the prospects of settlement are,
frankly, far from bright."
While in Yerevan and Baku, Lavrov said that status quo is not in the
interest of the conflicting sides.
However, Markedonov, well-known in Russia, disagrees with Lavrov:
"The truth is that the status quo is greatly in Moscow's interest, as
both Armenia and Azerbaijan are not ready to make compromises. Moscow
is trying to hold a restrained position in its relations with Yerevan
and Baku. Armenia seems like a closer partner, and is more dependent on
Russia considering the growing cooperation in the spheres of economy,
defense and security. However, Azerbaijan is Russia's most important
neighbor sharing the troubled Daghestani sector of its border and
the common Caspian Sea."
In other words, Moscow is interested in the current state of affairs
as, in case more decisive measures are taken to settle the conflict,
hostilities might be resumed, and Russia would have to take sides
with one of the parties, namely, support Armenia as a member of
Collective Security Treaty Organization. And to Russia that is the
least desirable scenario.
Lavrov's visit shortly preceded Vladimir Putin's inauguration. To some
extent it became another signal to both Baku and Yerevan, meant to
say that Moscow's interests in the South Caucasus remain unchanged,
and that Russia will keep trying to preserve status-quo and the
leveled relations with both countries.
From: A. Papazian