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Azerbaijani Jamaat Cooperates With Caucasus Emirate

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  • Azerbaijani Jamaat Cooperates With Caucasus Emirate

    Eurasia Daily Monitor -- The Jamestown Foundation

    April 12, 2012 -- Volume 9, Issue 73

    IN THIS ISSUE

    President-elect Putin sees increasing political opposition to his rule
    Azeri SOCAR is poised to lead foreign direct investment in Turkey
    while `Forest Brothers' launch attacks in Azerbaijan on eve of Eurovision contest
    Belarusians grow more cynical rather than supportive of the Lukashenka regime


    ------------------------------

    Azerbaijani Jamaat Cooperates With Caucasus Emirate


    The Republic of Azerbaijan is inarguably one of the fastest developing
    countries in the post-Soviet space. Large revenues from exports of oil and
    gas have obscured all of the problems of this Caucasian republic. As in all
    other republics of the Caucasus, there are also acute, unresolved issues in
    Azerbaijan that it inherited from the former USSR. The deadlock over talks
    on the future of Karabakh, the Lezgin ethnic group divided by the
    Russian-Azeri border, Avar enclaves in northern Azerbaijan and the Sunni
    minority are among the main problems.

    However, the security services' operation against radical Muslims in the
    city of Ganja in the northwestern part of Azerbaijan has attracted the most
    attention recently. Ganja is situated in the Ganja-Kazakh lowlands in the
    northeastern foothills of the Lesser Caucasus mountain range and is very
    close to the North Caucasus. Ganja is Azerbaijan's second largest city in
    terms of area and third largest in terms of population. On April 6, clashes
    took place between Azeri Ministry for National Security forces and a group
    of militants who ended up killing one member of Azerbaijan's elite
    special forces. The militants were called different things in different
    media outlets, including `Forest Brothers,' `Salafis,' `Wahhabis' and so on
    (http://ummanews.com/news/kavkaz/6377-2012-04-07-10-45-42.html).

    The very first news from the site of the clashes indicated the significance
    of the incident. Despite severe censorship, the government failed to hide
    the losses sustained by the Ministry for National Security forces,
    including the killing of Lieutenant Colonel Elshad Veli oglu Guliev (
    www.trend.az/news/incident/2011429.html). The Azeri version of events,
    which says that government forces attacked the rebels because they had
    received information about the arrival of Salafis and their preparations
    for a terrorist attack in Ganja, does not appear to hold up. The residents
    of the house where the militants stayed said the suspects had been there
    for a long time and had caused no trouble (
    www.radioazadlyg.org/content/article/24539448.html). Yet, the authorities
    decided to storm their apartment building on Tebriz Street on April 6. As a
    result, three people on the government side were killed and three to five
    were wounded, while one militant was killed and two wounded. Two people
    were arrested during the operation in Ganja: 25-year-old Amir Muradov, a
    native of Gusar district who had Sumgait as his place of permanent
    residence; and Faik Sultanov, a resident of the Nizami district of Baku and
    a student at the Academy of Physical Education (
    www.regnum.ru/news/polit/1518530.html).

    Following the firefight in Ganja authorities in Azerbaijan on April 7 began
    mass arrests of people suspected of involvement in or sympathy for radical
    Islam. The arrests were carried out in the border areas with Russia, as
    well as in Baku, Ganja, Sumgait and Gakh. Ammunition and illegal literature
    calling for jihad (holy war) were confiscated (
    www.radioazadlyg.org/content/article/24540144.html). It should be noted
    that special operations against jamaat members are carried out in the north
    of the country on a regular basis (http://janarmenian.ru/news/4229.html).
    These areas are populated mainly by Azerbaijan's Sunni minority and natives
    of Dagestan. It is no coincidence that the city of Sumgait, one of the
    larger suburbs of Baku, is mentioned frequently, because it has been the
    place of residence for many people of Dagestani origin since the Soviet
    period, when the city was promoted as a multicultural project. Cases of
    conversion from Shiism to Sunnism are increasingly common among the youth.
    By default, the authorities tend to regard such cases as the equivalent of
    adopting radical Islamic teachings, which is hardly the correct way to deal
    with the issue (http://iwpr.net/ru/report-news, April 14, 2011).

    The latest operation by Azerbaijan's security services illuminated a
    problem that has been persistently suppressed by the country's authorities:
    the fact that Azerbaijan's jamaat closely cooperates with the North
    Caucasian jamaats - the so-called Caucasus Emirate, the organization of the
    North Caucasian armed resistance.

    Azerbaijan's jamaat was founded in Sumgait when Ildar Mollachiev (aka Emir
    Abdul-Mejid) was still was in charge of the Dagestani jamaat. Mollachiev,
    who became Emir in September 2007, came from the city of Zagatala in
    northern Azerbaijan and was an ethnic Tsakhur, a Sunni ethnic group that
    resides on both sides of the Azeri-Russian border that is closely related
    to the Lezghians. The Azerbaijani Tsakhurs live mainly in the region of
    Zagatala and Kakh, a multi-national zone full of small ethnicities, such as
    the Tsakhurs, Ingiloy and Tabasars.

    To provide a base of support in Azerbaijan for his operations, Mollachiev
    set up an organization in Sumgait in 2008 that subsequently closely
    cooperated with the North Caucasian jamaats, although it has been
    completely independent from them. In Azerbaijan, this jamaat is called the
    `Forest Brothers,' but more correctly it should be called the `Sumgait
    Jamaat,' since it started off in Sumgait and then spread to other regions
    of Azerbaijan (www.centrasia.ru/newsA.php?st=1239135120).

    Members of this jamaat are persecuted across the republic. Thus, in 2011,
    some of its members were charged with serious crimes, including a bomb
    attack on the Abu-Bekr mosque in Baku on August 17, 2008 (
    www.rosbalt.ru/exussr/2009/06/29/651007.html). Twenty-six members of the
    jamaat received various sentences at the conclusion of the trial, and this
    was not the only case of sentencing of members of an Azerbaijani jamaat.

    Azerbaijan's authorities face not only the presence on its territory of a
    jamaat that sympathizes with the militarized North Caucasian resistance
    movement, but also a more delicate issue, which is the conflict between the
    Shia and Sunni branches of Islam. The vast majority of Azerbaijanis are
    Shias and, after gaining independence in 1991, the number of Shias in
    Azerbaijan was estimated to be 85 percent (
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_Azerbaijan). However, in recent years
    this gap reportedly has been narrowing and according to some estimates the
    total number of Shias in Azerbaijan has dropped to 70 percent. By language,
    culture and spiritual proximity, Azerbaijan is much closer to Sunni Turkey
    than to Shia Iran. This divide makes Azerbaijan a target for both Iran and
    Turkey, and the friction between the Shia and the Sunni makes the country
    particularly vulnerable to its neighbors. That is why the Azeri authorities
    are trying to limit information about the Azerbaijani jamaat in the best
    traditions of the Soviet period.

    Thus, the authorities' actions in Ganja should be regarded as confirmation
    of the existence of a jamaat (aka the `Forest Brothers') that closely
    cooperates with the North Caucasian armed resistance. This organization is
    very dynamic and has multiple cells not only in the north of the country,
    but also in Baku, Sumgait and Ganja. In the future we should expect more
    government actions aimed at uprooting the structure that was established by
    Dagestani militant leader Ildar Mollachiev in 2008, particularly as
    Azerbaijan moves closer and closer to the Eurovision contest at the end of
    May. Increasingly there are signs in Islamic forums that some militant
    group in Azerbaijan might pose a threat to the thousands of foreigners who
    will descend upon Baku (http://ummanews.ru/feedback.html).


    --Mairbek Vatchagaev



    Azerbaijan's Petkim Takeover To Overhaul Turkey's Petrochemical Industry


    Azerbaijan's State Oil Company (SOCAR) is poised to become the largest
    direct foreign investor in Turkey. According to company president, Rovnag
    Abdullayev, and foreign investment department chief Vahit Aliyev, SOCAR
    plans to invest $17 billion in Turkey in 2012-2017, concentrated on two
    flagship projects: construction of the Trans-Anatolia Gas Pipeline and
    expansion of the petrochemicals holding Petkim (Today.Az, Trend, April 4,
    10, 12).

    SOCAR recently acquired the majority of shares in the Izmir-based
    Petrokimya (Petkim) Holding. This is the sole large producer of plastics of
    all descriptions, packaging materials, fabrics, dyes and detergents, in
    Turkey's market of 80 million people. Petkim currently covers about one
    quarter of Turkish demand for those chemical products. Dependent on
    imported oil derivatives for raw materials, Petkim's production is not
    among the most competitive. SOCAR's investment program aims to supply
    Petkim directly with oil-based raw materials from a refinery of its own,
    boost Petkim's output and its competitiveness, increase its internal market
    share to as much as 70 percent, expand into Near Eastern markets, and turn
    Petkim's port near Izmir into Turkey's largest logistics center (1News.Az,
    Trend, April 4, 5).

    Azerbaijan's state oil company acquired control of Petkim Holding through
    two competitive bids: 51 percent for $2.04 billion in 2008 (through the
    SOCAR-Turcas joint venture, renamed SOCAR-Turkey Energy since then); and
    another 10 percent for $169 million in March 2012, for a total of 61
    percent and the operating rights. SOCAR's subsidiary, SOCAR-Turkey Energy,
    holds those shares (while 39 percent of the shares remain in free-float)
    (Anatolia news agency, April 1).

    Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyp Erdogan and Azerbaijani President Ilham
    Alyiev jointly made the final political decision to launch this project. On
    October 25, 2011, Alyiev and Erdogan broke ground for construction of the
    Star Refinery near Izmir. The overall site, Aliaga, is scheduled for
    development as Turkey's most modern manufacturing and trading hub on the
    Aegean-Mediterranean coast.

    The refinery is designed for a processing capacity of 10 million tons of
    oil per year; construction of the first stage is planned for completion by
    2015. Attached to it, a technical industrial lyceum named after Haydar
    Aliyev is planned to train a local work force.

    SOCAR expects to invest approximately $7 billion in the overall project,
    including $5.5 billion for the two-stage construction of the Star Refinery.
    Of this amount, Baku plans to raise $2.5 billion from export-crediting
    banks of countries that will deliver the oil-refining equipment; $1.5
    billion from commercial loans; and another $1.5 billion from the
    shareholders themselves (mainly, SOCAR's equity capital). (1News.Az, Trend,
    April 10).

    A state-of-the-art port is planned for construction by APM Terminals at
    this site. In February of this year, Petkim and its fully-owned subsidiary,
    Petkim Port [Turkish: Petkim Liman (Petlim)], signed a framework agreement
    with APM Terminals to build and operate this port in Aliaga, a natural
    deep-water site. A. P. Moller-Maersk (APM) is a Netherlands-based affiliate
    of the Danish Moller-Maersk, a world leader for port and terminal
    operations and container transportation.

    The plan for Aliaga envisages a vertically integrated,
    refinery-petrochemicals-energy-logistics complex, to become operational by
    2015 (with the oil refinery's first stage). In Turkey, overall, the
    development of modern port capacities lags behind the country's rapid
    industrial development. Petkim's port is designed to become the largest
    integrated logistics center in Turkey for petrochemicals, container, and
    general cargo transportation, under the agreement with APM Terminals
    (Journal of Commerce, February 13).

    Azerbaijan's other flagship investment project in Turkey is the
    Trans-Anatolia Gas Pipeline (TANAP). The investment is estimated at $5
    billion to $6 billion for the first stage of construction and operation.
    Under the December 26, 2011 inter-governmental memorandum of intent, SOCAR
    shall hold 80 percent of the shares and the operating rights; Turkey's
    state pipeline company Botas, 10 percent; and Turkish Petroleum another 10
    percent. SOCAR has the right to sell shares to possible minority partners,
    out of its 80 percent package; but shall in any case retain the majority of
    shares and operating rights. SOCAR's own investment shall be proportionate
    with its shares in the project. TANAP is designed for a first-stage
    capacity of 16 billion cubic meters (bcm) of Azerbaijani gas per year from
    2017 onward, with possible expansion up to 30 bcm per year in a follow-up
    stage.

    With these projects, Azerbaijan is surging to the top of foreign direct
    investors in Turkey's high-growth economy. SOCAR's capacity to invest in
    projects of Petkim's and TANAP's magnitude testifies to its effective use
    of oil revenues for re-investment in other projects, only four or five
    years after oil revenues had begun accruing to Baku.

    Azerbaijan's west-oriented oil export strategy turned Turkey into an oil
    transit country, albeit without the means to invest in Turkey at that time.
    Now emerging as a gas exporter with the same west-oriented strategy,
    Azerbaijan is turning Turkey into a gas transit country - as well as
    overhauling Turkey's petro-chemical sector. Turkey had long aspired to
    become a transit country for both oil and gas pipelines. Thus far, only
    Azerbaijan makes this possible. Additionally, Azerbaijan's investment in
    the Georgian section of the Kars-Tbilisi-Baku railroad, expected for
    completion by November 2012, will connect Baku and Ankara within an
    inter-continental transport system. These developments are apt to reinforce
    Turkish-Azerbaijani political solidarity on all issues of regional
    importance.


    --Vladimir Socor




    From: A. Papazian
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