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States News Service
April12, 2012 Thursday
ANKARA'S VIEW OF THE FRENCH ELECTIONS: A RESET WITH FRANCE?
WASHINGTON
The following information was released by the Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace:
Sinan ulgen
Turks are keeping a close eye on Frances presidential race, as they
well should. After all, the outcome of the upcoming election will
steer the future direction of the Turkey-EU relationship. Many Turks
perceive the current French president,Nicolas Sarkozy,as one of the
fundamental impediments to progress toward Turkeys eventual accession
to the European Union. The election of the Socialist candidate,
Franois Hollande, could infuse a new sense of purpose into the
Turkey-EU relationship.
After Sarkozy came to power in 2007, he did not hesitate to block
Turkeys path to the EU. In his public rhetoric, Sarkozy argued that
Turkey had no place in Europe. Despite France being part of the
consensus decision in 2004 to start membership negotiations, with
Sarkozy at the helm, Paris breached that contract and unilaterally
suspended five of the chapters under negotiation, claiming that they
were only relevant for prospective members.
Perhaps somewhat naively, Sarkozy attempted to separate Turkish
accession from his countrys overall relationship with Turkey, seeking
to develop the bilateral relationship despite his relentless
opposition to Turkeys EU membership. The French tried to convince
Turkish authorities to agree to disagree.
But for Ankara, such an attempt was futile. A positive relationship
with a country so vehemently opposed to the goal of EU accession could
not be established. As a result, the relationship worsened during the
Sarkozy era. Today, the two countries share the dubious distinction of
having the worst bilateral political ties among NATO allies.
Many Turks hope that a change in leadership in France will create a
window of opportunity for resetting the relationship with Paris and
revitalize stalled membership negotiations. Franois Hollande has been
much less skeptical about Turkeys eventual accession. So far, his
statements put him closer to the German chancellor thanPresident
Sarkozy.Angela Merkel stated her opposition to Turkeys membership
while still emphasizing her duty to honor commitments made by previous
German governments. As a result, she did not use German diplomacy to
block Turkeys progress. This is in a sense what Ankara expects from a
Hollande-led French government.
But even a switch from stalwart opposition to a position of neutrality
in France could add serious momentum to the Turkey-EU relationship:
the five chapters of the EU acquis that were unilaterally suspended
can be unfrozen. There has been almost no progress in negotiations,
and a new chapter has not been opened since June 2010. The possibility
of opening up new chapters to discussion could indeed give a
much-needed and much-delayed boost to the negotiation process.
An improvement in the bilateral relationship is also likely to have a
positive impact on foreign policy cooperation between Turkey and the
EU. The emerging rivalry between France and Turkey has been a handicap
in this respect. The France-UK visit to Libya in September 2011 came
just a day before the planned visit of the Turkish prime minister,
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to the same country. That did not bode
particularly well for potential Turkey-EU cooperation in this highly
critical area.
The drawback of a Hollande presidency from Ankaras perspective seems
to be the willingness of the Socialist candidate to rejuvenate the
failed attempt in France to criminalize the act of denying that the
1915 Armenian massacres were genocide. Such a move would have
long-term political implications, as Ankara would not remain
indifferent to such an initiative. The Turkish reaction would lead to
yet another crisis between Ankara and Paris.
One thing is certain. Only a change of leadership in France will
unleash the possibility of resetting a critically important
relationship that, in all likelihood, will remain crisis prone under
Sarkozy.
April12, 2012 Thursday
ANKARA'S VIEW OF THE FRENCH ELECTIONS: A RESET WITH FRANCE?
WASHINGTON
The following information was released by the Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace:
Sinan ulgen
Turks are keeping a close eye on Frances presidential race, as they
well should. After all, the outcome of the upcoming election will
steer the future direction of the Turkey-EU relationship. Many Turks
perceive the current French president,Nicolas Sarkozy,as one of the
fundamental impediments to progress toward Turkeys eventual accession
to the European Union. The election of the Socialist candidate,
Franois Hollande, could infuse a new sense of purpose into the
Turkey-EU relationship.
After Sarkozy came to power in 2007, he did not hesitate to block
Turkeys path to the EU. In his public rhetoric, Sarkozy argued that
Turkey had no place in Europe. Despite France being part of the
consensus decision in 2004 to start membership negotiations, with
Sarkozy at the helm, Paris breached that contract and unilaterally
suspended five of the chapters under negotiation, claiming that they
were only relevant for prospective members.
Perhaps somewhat naively, Sarkozy attempted to separate Turkish
accession from his countrys overall relationship with Turkey, seeking
to develop the bilateral relationship despite his relentless
opposition to Turkeys EU membership. The French tried to convince
Turkish authorities to agree to disagree.
But for Ankara, such an attempt was futile. A positive relationship
with a country so vehemently opposed to the goal of EU accession could
not be established. As a result, the relationship worsened during the
Sarkozy era. Today, the two countries share the dubious distinction of
having the worst bilateral political ties among NATO allies.
Many Turks hope that a change in leadership in France will create a
window of opportunity for resetting the relationship with Paris and
revitalize stalled membership negotiations. Franois Hollande has been
much less skeptical about Turkeys eventual accession. So far, his
statements put him closer to the German chancellor thanPresident
Sarkozy.Angela Merkel stated her opposition to Turkeys membership
while still emphasizing her duty to honor commitments made by previous
German governments. As a result, she did not use German diplomacy to
block Turkeys progress. This is in a sense what Ankara expects from a
Hollande-led French government.
But even a switch from stalwart opposition to a position of neutrality
in France could add serious momentum to the Turkey-EU relationship:
the five chapters of the EU acquis that were unilaterally suspended
can be unfrozen. There has been almost no progress in negotiations,
and a new chapter has not been opened since June 2010. The possibility
of opening up new chapters to discussion could indeed give a
much-needed and much-delayed boost to the negotiation process.
An improvement in the bilateral relationship is also likely to have a
positive impact on foreign policy cooperation between Turkey and the
EU. The emerging rivalry between France and Turkey has been a handicap
in this respect. The France-UK visit to Libya in September 2011 came
just a day before the planned visit of the Turkish prime minister,
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to the same country. That did not bode
particularly well for potential Turkey-EU cooperation in this highly
critical area.
The drawback of a Hollande presidency from Ankaras perspective seems
to be the willingness of the Socialist candidate to rejuvenate the
failed attempt in France to criminalize the act of denying that the
1915 Armenian massacres were genocide. Such a move would have
long-term political implications, as Ankara would not remain
indifferent to such an initiative. The Turkish reaction would lead to
yet another crisis between Ankara and Paris.
One thing is certain. Only a change of leadership in France will
unleash the possibility of resetting a critically important
relationship that, in all likelihood, will remain crisis prone under
Sarkozy.