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CONTROLLABLE CHAOS IN THE CAUCASUS
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
April 23, 2012 Monday
[translated from Russian]
TENSION IN THE CAUCASUS IS MOUNTING; The United States is stirring
chaos in the Caucasus in the hope to benefit from it.
American and Israeli preparations for a strike at Iranian nuclear sites
mount tension in the adjacent Caucasus. American analysts suspect
that Russia is getting ready for a war too. They claim that Moscow
has dispatched additional contingents to the 102nd Military Base in
Gyumri, Armenia. Some Western media outlets report that families of
Russian servicemen are evacuated from the Caucasus.
Western military analysts anticipate the following scenario of the
forthcoming hostilities. Going to war on Iran, the United States
might deploy in Georgia. Washington will probably secure help from
Azerbaijan, a country whose advanced military contacts with Israel
are no secret.
Responding to this turn of events, Russia is allegedly expected
to strike at Georgia and Azerbaijan. It will be done to secure a
corridor connecting Russia with its military base in Armenia. Political
scientist Zbigniew Brzezinski ventured a guess that Iran, once attacked
by the Western community, might retaliate with a strike at Azerbaijan
whereas Russia "will make use of the situation and launch another
war with Georgia."
Experts in the Caucasus speculate over the possibility and
corollaries of this turn of events in all earnest. Some hotheads
in Armenia already claim that Yerevan ought to team up with Russia
in the event of another Russian-Georgian shootout. They say that in
return, Armenia ought to demand from Russia guarantees of Georgia's
future fragmentation. The implication is clear - absorption of the
Armenian-populated Akhalkalaki district of Georgia. And while they
are at it, these hotheads promote an ultimate solution to the problem
of Nagorno-Karabakh - a war with Azerbaijan.
Specialists meanwhile say that by leaking information on scenarios such
as this, the Americans remain true to their pet tactic of controllable
chaos. First Washington generates chaos and then it goes about turning
the tables and benefiting from it. Why not? The Americans themselves
inevitably remain safe and secure, over there across the ocean. A
Russian-American war in the Caucasus is impossible because neither
will want to shed blood, much less exchange nuclear strikes over this
region. Fomenting tension in the Caucasus, however, right near Russia
is what Washington will dearly like to accomplish.
Neither do specialists think that there is anything Moscow can do
to prevent the Americans from striking at Iran. It follows that
whenever anything like that happens, Russia ought to be ready to
seize the initiative and take what part it can in this controllable
chaos policy. Chechnya will be playing quite an important role in
this case... on account of its geographic location. Count in Chechen
military potential, quite considerable. It was Chechen units in
the Russian-Georgian war in 2008 that begged for the permission to
overtake Tbilisi and were clearly disappointed when denied it.
Content-Type: MESSAGE/RFC822; CHARSET=US-ASCII
Content-Description:
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1
From: Katia Peltekian
Subject: Controllable Chaos in the Caucasus
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
April 23, 2012 Monday
CONTROLLABLE CHAOS IN THE CAUCASUS
Source: Argumenty Nedeli, No 15, April 19-25, 2012, p. 2
[translated from Russian]
TENSION IN THE CAUCASUS IS MOUNTING; The United States is stirring
chaos in the Caucasus in the hope to benefit from it.
American and Israeli preparations for a strike at Iranian nuclear
sites mount tension in the adjacent Caucasus. American analysts
suspect that Russia is getting ready for a war too. They claim that
Moscow has dispatched additional contingents to the 102nd Military
Base in Gyumri, Armenia. Some Western media outlets report that
families of Russian servicemen are evacuated from the Caucasus.
Western military analysts anticipate the following scenario of the
forthcoming hostilities. Going to war on Iran, the United States might
deploy in Georgia. Washington will probably secure help from
Azerbaijan, a country whose advanced military contacts with Israel are
no secret.
Responding to this turn of events, Russia is allegedly expected to
strike at Georgia and Azerbaijan. It will be done to secure a corridor
connecting Russia with its military base in Armenia. Political
scientist Zbigniew Brzezinski ventured a guess that Iran, once
attacked by the Western community, might retaliate with a strike at
Azerbaijan whereas Russia "will make use of the situation and launch
another war with Georgia."
Experts in the Caucasus speculate over the possibility and corollaries
of this turn of events in all earnest. Some hotheads in Armenia
already claim that Yerevan ought to team up with Russia in the event
of another Russian-Georgian shootout. They say that in return, Armenia
ought to demand from Russia guarantees of Georgia's future
fragmentation. The implication is clear - absorption of the
Armenian-populated Akhalkalaki district of Georgia. And while they are
at it, these hotheads promote an ultimate solution to the problem of
Nagorno-Karabakh - a war with Azerbaijan.
Specialists meanwhile say that by leaking information on scenarios
such as this, the Americans remain true to their pet tactic of
controllable chaos. First Washington generates chaos and then it goes
about turning the tables and benefiting from it. Why not? The
Americans themselves inevitably remain safe and secure, over there
across the ocean. A Russian-American war in the Caucasus is impossible
because neither will want to shed blood, much less exchange nuclear
strikes over this region. Fomenting tension in the Caucasus, however,
right near Russia is what Washington will dearly like to accomplish.
Neither do specialists think that there is anything Moscow can do to
prevent the Americans from striking at Iran. It follows that whenever
anything like that happens, Russia ought to be ready to seize the
initiative and take what part it can in this controllable chaos
policy. Chechnya will be playing quite an important role in this
case... on account of its geographic location. Count in Chechen
military potential, quite considerable. It was Chechen units in the
Russian-Georgian war in 2008 that begged for the permission to
overtake Tbilisi and were clearly disappointed when denied it.
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
April 23, 2012 Monday
[translated from Russian]
TENSION IN THE CAUCASUS IS MOUNTING; The United States is stirring
chaos in the Caucasus in the hope to benefit from it.
American and Israeli preparations for a strike at Iranian nuclear sites
mount tension in the adjacent Caucasus. American analysts suspect
that Russia is getting ready for a war too. They claim that Moscow
has dispatched additional contingents to the 102nd Military Base in
Gyumri, Armenia. Some Western media outlets report that families of
Russian servicemen are evacuated from the Caucasus.
Western military analysts anticipate the following scenario of the
forthcoming hostilities. Going to war on Iran, the United States
might deploy in Georgia. Washington will probably secure help from
Azerbaijan, a country whose advanced military contacts with Israel
are no secret.
Responding to this turn of events, Russia is allegedly expected
to strike at Georgia and Azerbaijan. It will be done to secure a
corridor connecting Russia with its military base in Armenia. Political
scientist Zbigniew Brzezinski ventured a guess that Iran, once attacked
by the Western community, might retaliate with a strike at Azerbaijan
whereas Russia "will make use of the situation and launch another
war with Georgia."
Experts in the Caucasus speculate over the possibility and
corollaries of this turn of events in all earnest. Some hotheads
in Armenia already claim that Yerevan ought to team up with Russia
in the event of another Russian-Georgian shootout. They say that in
return, Armenia ought to demand from Russia guarantees of Georgia's
future fragmentation. The implication is clear - absorption of the
Armenian-populated Akhalkalaki district of Georgia. And while they
are at it, these hotheads promote an ultimate solution to the problem
of Nagorno-Karabakh - a war with Azerbaijan.
Specialists meanwhile say that by leaking information on scenarios such
as this, the Americans remain true to their pet tactic of controllable
chaos. First Washington generates chaos and then it goes about turning
the tables and benefiting from it. Why not? The Americans themselves
inevitably remain safe and secure, over there across the ocean. A
Russian-American war in the Caucasus is impossible because neither
will want to shed blood, much less exchange nuclear strikes over this
region. Fomenting tension in the Caucasus, however, right near Russia
is what Washington will dearly like to accomplish.
Neither do specialists think that there is anything Moscow can do
to prevent the Americans from striking at Iran. It follows that
whenever anything like that happens, Russia ought to be ready to
seize the initiative and take what part it can in this controllable
chaos policy. Chechnya will be playing quite an important role in
this case... on account of its geographic location. Count in Chechen
military potential, quite considerable. It was Chechen units in
the Russian-Georgian war in 2008 that begged for the permission to
overtake Tbilisi and were clearly disappointed when denied it.
Content-Type: MESSAGE/RFC822; CHARSET=US-ASCII
Content-Description:
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1
From: Katia Peltekian
Subject: Controllable Chaos in the Caucasus
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
April 23, 2012 Monday
CONTROLLABLE CHAOS IN THE CAUCASUS
Source: Argumenty Nedeli, No 15, April 19-25, 2012, p. 2
[translated from Russian]
TENSION IN THE CAUCASUS IS MOUNTING; The United States is stirring
chaos in the Caucasus in the hope to benefit from it.
American and Israeli preparations for a strike at Iranian nuclear
sites mount tension in the adjacent Caucasus. American analysts
suspect that Russia is getting ready for a war too. They claim that
Moscow has dispatched additional contingents to the 102nd Military
Base in Gyumri, Armenia. Some Western media outlets report that
families of Russian servicemen are evacuated from the Caucasus.
Western military analysts anticipate the following scenario of the
forthcoming hostilities. Going to war on Iran, the United States might
deploy in Georgia. Washington will probably secure help from
Azerbaijan, a country whose advanced military contacts with Israel are
no secret.
Responding to this turn of events, Russia is allegedly expected to
strike at Georgia and Azerbaijan. It will be done to secure a corridor
connecting Russia with its military base in Armenia. Political
scientist Zbigniew Brzezinski ventured a guess that Iran, once
attacked by the Western community, might retaliate with a strike at
Azerbaijan whereas Russia "will make use of the situation and launch
another war with Georgia."
Experts in the Caucasus speculate over the possibility and corollaries
of this turn of events in all earnest. Some hotheads in Armenia
already claim that Yerevan ought to team up with Russia in the event
of another Russian-Georgian shootout. They say that in return, Armenia
ought to demand from Russia guarantees of Georgia's future
fragmentation. The implication is clear - absorption of the
Armenian-populated Akhalkalaki district of Georgia. And while they are
at it, these hotheads promote an ultimate solution to the problem of
Nagorno-Karabakh - a war with Azerbaijan.
Specialists meanwhile say that by leaking information on scenarios
such as this, the Americans remain true to their pet tactic of
controllable chaos. First Washington generates chaos and then it goes
about turning the tables and benefiting from it. Why not? The
Americans themselves inevitably remain safe and secure, over there
across the ocean. A Russian-American war in the Caucasus is impossible
because neither will want to shed blood, much less exchange nuclear
strikes over this region. Fomenting tension in the Caucasus, however,
right near Russia is what Washington will dearly like to accomplish.
Neither do specialists think that there is anything Moscow can do to
prevent the Americans from striking at Iran. It follows that whenever
anything like that happens, Russia ought to be ready to seize the
initiative and take what part it can in this controllable chaos
policy. Chechnya will be playing quite an important role in this
case... on account of its geographic location. Count in Chechen
military potential, quite considerable. It was Chechen units in the
Russian-Georgian war in 2008 that begged for the permission to
overtake Tbilisi and were clearly disappointed when denied it.