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DAVID HOVHANNISSYAN: DESTABILIZATION OF THE SITUATION IN SYRIA HAS BEEN CAUSED BY THE EXTERNALLY IMPOSED INFILTRATION
by David Stepanyan
arminfo
Tuesday, July 31, 12:06
Interview of Director of Center for Political and Culturological
Studies of Yerevan State University, Orientalist, Professor David
Hovhannissyan with ArmInfo News Agency
Mr.Hovhannisyan, would the current aggravation of the domestic
situation in Syria be possible without external sponsorship? Is the
Syrians' discontent based on domestic factors or is it restricted to
the so-called "export of democracy"?
If the so-called "rebels" were not sponsored from outside and if
there were no permanent infiltration of the Muslim Brotherhood and
Salafis-Wahabis from the territory of Turkey and Iraq, I do not think
Syria would face the current situation. I do not want to say that
the Syrian system of governance is ideal. On the contrary, it is
authoritarian. In the meantime, though Syria experienced hard times
because of the Arab-Israeli conflict, it has become a serious state and
one of the key players in several spheres since the current president's
father Hafez Assad came to power. These are the Arab-Israeli conflict,
the allied relations with Iran, the USSR, and present Russia. I
should say that alongside with the growth of Syria's significance,
the level of public welfare was also growing. Certainly, there were
also discontent people, particularly, the Muslim Brotherhood.
When the Alawi minority was at power, it guaranteed quite harmonious
co-existence of various ethnic and confessional groups of the
population of Syria, which is a unique country, in which almost
all the well-known branches of Christianity and Muslimism got along
together perfectly, except the most marginal and radical ones. This
period of domestic stability has always been highly estimated by
the population of Syria. Thus, the destabilization of the situation
in Syria has been caused by the externally imposed infiltration,
activation of foreign forces.
I am quite well aware of this country, its moods and the people
discontent with Bashar Assad's regime. On the other hand, the
statements that democracy will come to Syria after Assad's resignation
is a real bluff. There can be no such a thing as there are very few
people with liberal-democratic moods in Syria, which represent no
organized force. On the other hand, the Muslim
Brotherhood and the Salafis may just as well find a foothold among
the Syrians given that the Sunnis constitute the major part of the
Syrian population.
Do you agree with the opinion that on the whole Bashar Assad himself
is a liberal, at least as compared to the Muslim Brotherhood?
Since Bashar Assad came to power, he has really been trying to hold
reforms to liberalize the country, to contribute to more openness
of the society, demonopolization of economy; private banks were
launched in Syria. Thus, Assad conducted a policy aimed at enhancing
the competitiveness; however, all his efforts not only failed but
are also used against him now.
Which of the foreign actors doesn't need Assad's Syria and why?
Now that the Americans have withdrawn their troops from Iraq, they
are eager to break the Iran-Iraq Shi'a chain, where Syria is a strong
link. Moderate Sunni Turkey would like to see Syria ruled by a Sunni
government. In such a case its influence would grow, while that of
Iran would decline. In its turn, Saudi Arabia sponsors a radical Sunni
network and would like Syria to be controlled by the Muslim Brotherhood
or the Salafis, better known as Al Qaeda. In fact, this network acts
against both Turkey and Iran. So, you should not confuse the interests
of Turkey and Saudi Arabia. The interests of the Europeans are quite
contradictory. The United Kingdom supports the United States. France
has traditionally supported the Alawis but today its policy has
changed. As regards the Germans, they are quite detached.
A couple of days ago, expert on the Caucasus of the CIS Institute
Mikhail Alexandrov called on Armenia to be more active in this field.
Has the voice of our Foreign Ministry any chances to be heard?
Armenia should make its position known to the international
organizations that are concerned about the situation in Syria. We must
be active in this matter as we are very close to Syria and are closely
connected with the local Armenians. There are also lots of Armenian
cultural and spiritual values in Syria, like churches, libraries, etc.
And we must do our best to preserve them - something we will not be
able to do if Armenians leave Syria. We should use all of our lobbying
channels to guarantee the safety of our compatriots and their property
in Syria. However, I do not think that the Armenian factor in Syria
may disappear. Some Armenians are leaving that country but most of
them prefer to stay at home. They have families, jobs, businesses,
houses. They are pragmatic people and will not leave all this to the
mercy of fate.
What trends do you observe in Syria given the latest developments?
The July 18 acts of terrorism have shown that the operation against
Syria is well-organized. Still I think that the disorders in Damascus
and Aleppo will be gradually suppressed. The key task of the Syrian
authorities is to regain control over the Turkish and Iraqi borders.
Things are still far from settlement, but the key actors are already
negotiating this possibility as the examples of Egypt and Libya have
shown how dangerous such situations can be. In fact, the Syrians have
already got tired of all this and wish to live normally again. At
some moment, this tiredness may turn into displeasure with the Assad
family. On the other hand, it is unclear who can replace them: the
Liberals are not known, the Muslim Brotherhood is unpopular. In fact,
most of the Syrians still support Assad, so, he still has chances to
retain his power.
The foreign mass media have recently started speaking of the Syrian
chemical weapons. What are they doing it for?
Israel is organizing a special operation to find and seize Syria's
chemical weapons. It is still possible that Bashar Assad will be
replaced by uncontrolled people, so, it is necessary to quickly solve
this problem. My biggest concern is that some external forces may use
this as a pretext for entering Syria for 'deactivating' the weapons.
The Syrian authorities have repeatedly said that their chemical
weapons are a response to Israel's nuclear arms. But while Assad is a
predictable partner for Israel, the people who may come in his place
will not be so. Hence, Israel needs to find and seize the weapons as
soon as possible.
From: Baghdasarian
by David Stepanyan
arminfo
Tuesday, July 31, 12:06
Interview of Director of Center for Political and Culturological
Studies of Yerevan State University, Orientalist, Professor David
Hovhannissyan with ArmInfo News Agency
Mr.Hovhannisyan, would the current aggravation of the domestic
situation in Syria be possible without external sponsorship? Is the
Syrians' discontent based on domestic factors or is it restricted to
the so-called "export of democracy"?
If the so-called "rebels" were not sponsored from outside and if
there were no permanent infiltration of the Muslim Brotherhood and
Salafis-Wahabis from the territory of Turkey and Iraq, I do not think
Syria would face the current situation. I do not want to say that
the Syrian system of governance is ideal. On the contrary, it is
authoritarian. In the meantime, though Syria experienced hard times
because of the Arab-Israeli conflict, it has become a serious state and
one of the key players in several spheres since the current president's
father Hafez Assad came to power. These are the Arab-Israeli conflict,
the allied relations with Iran, the USSR, and present Russia. I
should say that alongside with the growth of Syria's significance,
the level of public welfare was also growing. Certainly, there were
also discontent people, particularly, the Muslim Brotherhood.
When the Alawi minority was at power, it guaranteed quite harmonious
co-existence of various ethnic and confessional groups of the
population of Syria, which is a unique country, in which almost
all the well-known branches of Christianity and Muslimism got along
together perfectly, except the most marginal and radical ones. This
period of domestic stability has always been highly estimated by
the population of Syria. Thus, the destabilization of the situation
in Syria has been caused by the externally imposed infiltration,
activation of foreign forces.
I am quite well aware of this country, its moods and the people
discontent with Bashar Assad's regime. On the other hand, the
statements that democracy will come to Syria after Assad's resignation
is a real bluff. There can be no such a thing as there are very few
people with liberal-democratic moods in Syria, which represent no
organized force. On the other hand, the Muslim
Brotherhood and the Salafis may just as well find a foothold among
the Syrians given that the Sunnis constitute the major part of the
Syrian population.
Do you agree with the opinion that on the whole Bashar Assad himself
is a liberal, at least as compared to the Muslim Brotherhood?
Since Bashar Assad came to power, he has really been trying to hold
reforms to liberalize the country, to contribute to more openness
of the society, demonopolization of economy; private banks were
launched in Syria. Thus, Assad conducted a policy aimed at enhancing
the competitiveness; however, all his efforts not only failed but
are also used against him now.
Which of the foreign actors doesn't need Assad's Syria and why?
Now that the Americans have withdrawn their troops from Iraq, they
are eager to break the Iran-Iraq Shi'a chain, where Syria is a strong
link. Moderate Sunni Turkey would like to see Syria ruled by a Sunni
government. In such a case its influence would grow, while that of
Iran would decline. In its turn, Saudi Arabia sponsors a radical Sunni
network and would like Syria to be controlled by the Muslim Brotherhood
or the Salafis, better known as Al Qaeda. In fact, this network acts
against both Turkey and Iran. So, you should not confuse the interests
of Turkey and Saudi Arabia. The interests of the Europeans are quite
contradictory. The United Kingdom supports the United States. France
has traditionally supported the Alawis but today its policy has
changed. As regards the Germans, they are quite detached.
A couple of days ago, expert on the Caucasus of the CIS Institute
Mikhail Alexandrov called on Armenia to be more active in this field.
Has the voice of our Foreign Ministry any chances to be heard?
Armenia should make its position known to the international
organizations that are concerned about the situation in Syria. We must
be active in this matter as we are very close to Syria and are closely
connected with the local Armenians. There are also lots of Armenian
cultural and spiritual values in Syria, like churches, libraries, etc.
And we must do our best to preserve them - something we will not be
able to do if Armenians leave Syria. We should use all of our lobbying
channels to guarantee the safety of our compatriots and their property
in Syria. However, I do not think that the Armenian factor in Syria
may disappear. Some Armenians are leaving that country but most of
them prefer to stay at home. They have families, jobs, businesses,
houses. They are pragmatic people and will not leave all this to the
mercy of fate.
What trends do you observe in Syria given the latest developments?
The July 18 acts of terrorism have shown that the operation against
Syria is well-organized. Still I think that the disorders in Damascus
and Aleppo will be gradually suppressed. The key task of the Syrian
authorities is to regain control over the Turkish and Iraqi borders.
Things are still far from settlement, but the key actors are already
negotiating this possibility as the examples of Egypt and Libya have
shown how dangerous such situations can be. In fact, the Syrians have
already got tired of all this and wish to live normally again. At
some moment, this tiredness may turn into displeasure with the Assad
family. On the other hand, it is unclear who can replace them: the
Liberals are not known, the Muslim Brotherhood is unpopular. In fact,
most of the Syrians still support Assad, so, he still has chances to
retain his power.
The foreign mass media have recently started speaking of the Syrian
chemical weapons. What are they doing it for?
Israel is organizing a special operation to find and seize Syria's
chemical weapons. It is still possible that Bashar Assad will be
replaced by uncontrolled people, so, it is necessary to quickly solve
this problem. My biggest concern is that some external forces may use
this as a pretext for entering Syria for 'deactivating' the weapons.
The Syrian authorities have repeatedly said that their chemical
weapons are a response to Israel's nuclear arms. But while Assad is a
predictable partner for Israel, the people who may come in his place
will not be so. Hence, Israel needs to find and seize the weapons as
soon as possible.
From: Baghdasarian