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NO THREAT OF SYRIAN ARMENIANS SETTLEMENT IN KARABAKH
News.Az
Wed 01 August 2012 07:32 GMT | 8:32 Local Time
News.Az interviews Heydar Mirza, MBA, research fellow in Foreign
Policy Analysis Department at Azerbaijani president's Center for
Strategic Studies.
Armenian government has decided to ease the issue of Armenian
citizenship to countrymen from Syria and Lebanon. Do you this the
Armenian authorities really took this step because their care for
their countrymen or they thus seek to settle the demographic problem
in their country?
Yes, there is such information. I think that the second factor here
plays a more weighty role than the first one. Though the Armenian
leadership will undoubtedly play on this by presenting their actions
as a care of 'watchmen of world Armenians' for their countrymen.
How many Armenians from Syria and Lebanon can make use of this proposal
considering the disastrous economic situation in Armenia?
Armenian media are the main source of information on the issue.
Reports on this issue are full of vague formulations that do not allow
specifying the number of Armenians of Syria who are willing to move to
Armenia. In addition, few would move for permanent residence without
prior familiarization. The current passenger flow in direction of
Aleppo-Yerevan should be viewed in this very context. In the short-term
perspective, Armenia will likely become a temporary residence for the
Armenians of Syria. In my previous materials, I have already written
about the contrasts that the Diaspora Armenians notice in their first
visit to Armenia. Please, read the material 'Armenia and Diaspora:
how pandukhts did their homeland in'.
Is there a threat that these Armenian migrants will be settled in
the occupied lands of Azerbaijan?
There is such a possibility and nothing more. It cannot reach the
degree of threat for several reasons. First, socioeconomic situation
in occupied Karabakh is worse than even in impoverished Armenia.
Meanwhile, compared to the Syria of Assad's best times this is a
completely 'cold shower' for the Dashnak-Emigrant romanticism. If
the Armenian state had at least the reasonable tools of attracting
representatives of Middle East Armenians for permanent residence to
Armenia and Karabakh, this would have been done long before. There is
no threat of settlement of Syrian Armenians in Karabakh, when people
abandon Armenia for Russia? Second, do you imagine the reaction
of those Karabakh Armenians to the appearance of those fifth wheel
Armenians from Syria in conditions when the occupied Karabakh almost
has no opportunities for self-realization except for in agriculture?
Candidates stand in a queue for every potential work place there in
six month before an employer commissions his facility. I think that
the number of Syrian Armenians that will take this step won't exceed
100-150 families.
How will the mass migration of Armenians of Armenia evidenced by the
statistical data of Yerevan affect the situation in the region?
Mass migration of Armenians from Armenia has already affected at least
the balance of powers influencing the situation if not the situation
in the region already in the perspective of three to five years. What
figure did Naira Zoghrabyan specify on people who leave the country
for at least long-400 people, isn't it? This is a small village in
terms of the same Karabakh.
At the recent session in the government President Aliyev especially
noted Azerbaijan's superiority over Armenia in the sphere of
demography. What can be the role of the demographic factor in the
resolution of the Karabakh conflict?
The fact that the president noted this factor in his appeal to members
of the government, there is additional evidence to the fact that the
rule of transition from quantity to quality is known to the supreme
military and political leadership of the country. Relevant measures in
the sphere of military and industrial construction, the structure and
volumes of arms import, as well as accents of Azerbaijani diplomacy
on the ineffective negotiation process as part of the OSCE Minsk
Group prove that Azerbaijani side realizes its strong and weak sides.
However, the problem of occupation is too complex and demands the due
complex approach and, by the way, I have to note that the president
never mentions the fact of demographic superiority of Azerbaijan over
Armenia separate from other factors. If you want to hear from me that
for the resolution of the problem of occupation it would be enough to
have what we have now and we are better prepared, it would be a great
mistake. There are numerous military and political factors in favor
of both Azerbaijani and Armenian parties and each of these factors
have several provisos. Thus, it is primarily necessary to be better
on the whole specter of comparisons and then to me more.
News.Az
Wed 01 August 2012 07:32 GMT | 8:32 Local Time
News.Az interviews Heydar Mirza, MBA, research fellow in Foreign
Policy Analysis Department at Azerbaijani president's Center for
Strategic Studies.
Armenian government has decided to ease the issue of Armenian
citizenship to countrymen from Syria and Lebanon. Do you this the
Armenian authorities really took this step because their care for
their countrymen or they thus seek to settle the demographic problem
in their country?
Yes, there is such information. I think that the second factor here
plays a more weighty role than the first one. Though the Armenian
leadership will undoubtedly play on this by presenting their actions
as a care of 'watchmen of world Armenians' for their countrymen.
How many Armenians from Syria and Lebanon can make use of this proposal
considering the disastrous economic situation in Armenia?
Armenian media are the main source of information on the issue.
Reports on this issue are full of vague formulations that do not allow
specifying the number of Armenians of Syria who are willing to move to
Armenia. In addition, few would move for permanent residence without
prior familiarization. The current passenger flow in direction of
Aleppo-Yerevan should be viewed in this very context. In the short-term
perspective, Armenia will likely become a temporary residence for the
Armenians of Syria. In my previous materials, I have already written
about the contrasts that the Diaspora Armenians notice in their first
visit to Armenia. Please, read the material 'Armenia and Diaspora:
how pandukhts did their homeland in'.
Is there a threat that these Armenian migrants will be settled in
the occupied lands of Azerbaijan?
There is such a possibility and nothing more. It cannot reach the
degree of threat for several reasons. First, socioeconomic situation
in occupied Karabakh is worse than even in impoverished Armenia.
Meanwhile, compared to the Syria of Assad's best times this is a
completely 'cold shower' for the Dashnak-Emigrant romanticism. If
the Armenian state had at least the reasonable tools of attracting
representatives of Middle East Armenians for permanent residence to
Armenia and Karabakh, this would have been done long before. There is
no threat of settlement of Syrian Armenians in Karabakh, when people
abandon Armenia for Russia? Second, do you imagine the reaction
of those Karabakh Armenians to the appearance of those fifth wheel
Armenians from Syria in conditions when the occupied Karabakh almost
has no opportunities for self-realization except for in agriculture?
Candidates stand in a queue for every potential work place there in
six month before an employer commissions his facility. I think that
the number of Syrian Armenians that will take this step won't exceed
100-150 families.
How will the mass migration of Armenians of Armenia evidenced by the
statistical data of Yerevan affect the situation in the region?
Mass migration of Armenians from Armenia has already affected at least
the balance of powers influencing the situation if not the situation
in the region already in the perspective of three to five years. What
figure did Naira Zoghrabyan specify on people who leave the country
for at least long-400 people, isn't it? This is a small village in
terms of the same Karabakh.
At the recent session in the government President Aliyev especially
noted Azerbaijan's superiority over Armenia in the sphere of
demography. What can be the role of the demographic factor in the
resolution of the Karabakh conflict?
The fact that the president noted this factor in his appeal to members
of the government, there is additional evidence to the fact that the
rule of transition from quantity to quality is known to the supreme
military and political leadership of the country. Relevant measures in
the sphere of military and industrial construction, the structure and
volumes of arms import, as well as accents of Azerbaijani diplomacy
on the ineffective negotiation process as part of the OSCE Minsk
Group prove that Azerbaijani side realizes its strong and weak sides.
However, the problem of occupation is too complex and demands the due
complex approach and, by the way, I have to note that the president
never mentions the fact of demographic superiority of Azerbaijan over
Armenia separate from other factors. If you want to hear from me that
for the resolution of the problem of occupation it would be enough to
have what we have now and we are better prepared, it would be a great
mistake. There are numerous military and political factors in favor
of both Azerbaijani and Armenian parties and each of these factors
have several provisos. Thus, it is primarily necessary to be better
on the whole specter of comparisons and then to me more.