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ANDREY ARESHEV: CONFLICT OF INTERESTS OF WASHINGTON AND MOSCOW WILL BECOME EVIDENT WITH AN APPROACHING MILITARY ATTACK ON IRAN
by David Stepanyan
arminfo
Wednesday, August 8, 11:54
ArmInfo's interview with Andrey Areshev, political expert, fellow at
the Institute for Political and Social Studies of the Black Sea and
Caspian Region
Baku has repeatedly declared that the Azerbaijan army will not launch
military actions in the territory of Armenia and the CSTO will have
no reason to help its ally. Don't you think that escalating tension
on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border is the very reason to do that?
Areshev believes that the aggravation of the situation not only on
the Karabakh-Azerbaijan border, but also in the northern section
ofthe Armenian-Azerbaijani border can demonstrate that Azerbaijan
considers all possible developments in case of war.
What is the reason of aggravation of the situation in the northern
section of the Armenian-Azeri border?
It is no secret that Armenia's positions in Tavush region are a
bit more vulnerable because of the natural landscape and relative
closeness of the populated areas to the border. Probably, the matter
concerns the moral and psychological pressure of Azerbaijan on
the borderline Armenian settlements. Other versions have also been
expressed, particularly, in the context of military construction
and training of saboteurs in Azerbaijan. I have no doubt that the
relevant services in Armenia will draw correct conclusions from the
situation and will take all the necessary measures to reinforce the
problematic borderline sections.
May Moscow repeat the August 8 2008 scenario if the Karabakh conflict
grows into large-scale war between Armenia and Azerbaijan?
I think one cannot expect Moscow to repeat the 08.08.08 scenario in
case the Karabakh conflict develops into a large-scale war between
Armenia and Azerbaijan. I do not think any scenario may reoccur
with 100% probability, however, I think it is possible to observe
some features in common. Anyway, I suppose Moscow will try to gain
stoppage of the military actions in every possible way.
On July 30 Congressman Dan Rohrabacher sent a letter to the U.S.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, urging to support the struggle
of the "Southern Azerbaijan" for independence. What was the goal of
that step?
I can suppose that doubting the absolute success of the would-be
military action against Iran, the United States has decided to place
its stake on stirring of ethno-confessional contradictions in this
country. The northern provinces of Iran have been at the gunpoint
of various U.S. services for a long time, and the relevant work has
been done for quite a long period. I do not think such activity will
bring serious success, especially given that the moods in favor of
the state unity in Iran are strong almost everywhere, including the
northern provinces mostly populated with Turkic speaking people.
Old rivalry of Moscow and Washington in our region is much spoken off.
Do they have any common interests in the South Caucasus and Armenia?
The old rivalry between Moscow and Washington in the South Caucasus and
the surrounding countries has not disappeared. It has simply become
veiled. I think one can most likely speak of the contact points
in the tactical context - as long as the United States and some
of its satellites are engaged in reformatting the Middle East and,
in particular, in organizing the civil war in Syria.
However, when the matter concerns Iran and the role of the Caucasian
states' territories in exerting pressure (up to an armed Attack)
on that country, the conflict of interests of Washington and Moscow
will become evident.
by David Stepanyan
arminfo
Wednesday, August 8, 11:54
ArmInfo's interview with Andrey Areshev, political expert, fellow at
the Institute for Political and Social Studies of the Black Sea and
Caspian Region
Baku has repeatedly declared that the Azerbaijan army will not launch
military actions in the territory of Armenia and the CSTO will have
no reason to help its ally. Don't you think that escalating tension
on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border is the very reason to do that?
Areshev believes that the aggravation of the situation not only on
the Karabakh-Azerbaijan border, but also in the northern section
ofthe Armenian-Azerbaijani border can demonstrate that Azerbaijan
considers all possible developments in case of war.
What is the reason of aggravation of the situation in the northern
section of the Armenian-Azeri border?
It is no secret that Armenia's positions in Tavush region are a
bit more vulnerable because of the natural landscape and relative
closeness of the populated areas to the border. Probably, the matter
concerns the moral and psychological pressure of Azerbaijan on
the borderline Armenian settlements. Other versions have also been
expressed, particularly, in the context of military construction
and training of saboteurs in Azerbaijan. I have no doubt that the
relevant services in Armenia will draw correct conclusions from the
situation and will take all the necessary measures to reinforce the
problematic borderline sections.
May Moscow repeat the August 8 2008 scenario if the Karabakh conflict
grows into large-scale war between Armenia and Azerbaijan?
I think one cannot expect Moscow to repeat the 08.08.08 scenario in
case the Karabakh conflict develops into a large-scale war between
Armenia and Azerbaijan. I do not think any scenario may reoccur
with 100% probability, however, I think it is possible to observe
some features in common. Anyway, I suppose Moscow will try to gain
stoppage of the military actions in every possible way.
On July 30 Congressman Dan Rohrabacher sent a letter to the U.S.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, urging to support the struggle
of the "Southern Azerbaijan" for independence. What was the goal of
that step?
I can suppose that doubting the absolute success of the would-be
military action against Iran, the United States has decided to place
its stake on stirring of ethno-confessional contradictions in this
country. The northern provinces of Iran have been at the gunpoint
of various U.S. services for a long time, and the relevant work has
been done for quite a long period. I do not think such activity will
bring serious success, especially given that the moods in favor of
the state unity in Iran are strong almost everywhere, including the
northern provinces mostly populated with Turkic speaking people.
Old rivalry of Moscow and Washington in our region is much spoken off.
Do they have any common interests in the South Caucasus and Armenia?
The old rivalry between Moscow and Washington in the South Caucasus and
the surrounding countries has not disappeared. It has simply become
veiled. I think one can most likely speak of the contact points
in the tactical context - as long as the United States and some
of its satellites are engaged in reformatting the Middle East and,
in particular, in organizing the civil war in Syria.
However, when the matter concerns Iran and the role of the Caucasian
states' territories in exerting pressure (up to an armed Attack)
on that country, the conflict of interests of Washington and Moscow
will become evident.