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Dissident Voice
August 16, 2012 Thursday 3:54 AM EST
Russia in the Middle East: Return of a Superpower?
The world is living through a veritable slow-motion earthquake. If
things go according to plan, the US obsession with Afghanistan and
Iraq will soon be one of those ugly historical disfigurements that at
least for most Americans will disappear into the memory hole.
Like Nixon and Vietnam, US President Barack Obama will be remembered
as the president who brought the troops home . But one cannot help but
notice the careful calibration of these moves to fit the US domestic
political machine the Iraqi move to show Americans that things on the
international front are improving (just don t mention Guantanamo), the
Afghan move put off conveniently till President Barack Obama's second
term, when he doesn t need to worry about the fallout electorally if
things unravel (which they surely will).
Of course, Russia lost big time geopolitically when the US invaded
Afghanistan, and thus gains as regional geopolitical hegemon by the
withdrawal of US troops from Central Asia. Just look at any map. But
American tentacles will remain: Central Asia has no real alternative
economically or politically anymore to the neoliberal global economy,
as Russia no longer claims to represent a socialist alternative to
imperialism. The departure of US troops and planes from remote
Kyrgyzstan will not be missed except for the hole it leaves in the
already penurious Kyrgyz government s budget and foreign currency
reserves. Russia is a far weaker entity than the Soviet Union, both
economically and politically. Thus, Russia s gain from US weakness is
not great.
Besides, both Russia and the US support the current Afghan government
against the Taliban as does Iran. In fact, in case US state department
and pentagon officials haven t noticed the obvious, the main
beneficiary of the US invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq has been Iran,
again by definition. The invasion brought to power the ethnic Persian
Tajiks in Afghanistan, and the invasion of Iraq set up a
Shia-dominated government there.
Similarly, when the US invaded Iraq, Russia lost politically and
economically. The US cancelled Saddam Hussein s state debts, which
hurt the Russians and Europeans but not the US. The US just happened
to be boycotting Iraq for the previous decade and took pleasure from
shafting its sometime allies for ignoring US wishes. However, once
Iraqi politicians begin to reassert some control over their foreign
policy, Russia will be seen as a much more sympathetic partner
internationally.
Ironically, on many fronts, Iran now holds the key to readjusting the
political playing field and establishing rules that can lead away from
the deadly game being played by the US, including in Afghanistan,
Iraq, with broader implications for broader nuclear disarmament, EU-US
relations, but above all, for the continued role of the dollar as
world reserve currency. This encourages Russia to maintain its
alliance with Iran over vague (and empty) promises of US-Russian world
hegemony as envisioned by the now-discredited Medvedev Atlantists in
Moscow.
Russia s relations with both Central Asia and the Middle East since
the collapse of the Soviet Union have been low key. In the Middle
East, it maintains relations with Palestine s Hamas, and, as a member
of the so-called quartet of Middle East negotiators (along with the
EU, the US and the UN), insists that Israel freeze expansion of
settlements in the Occupied Territories as a condition of further
talks. It appears to be trying to regain some of the goodwill that
existed between the Soviet Union and Arab states, supporting the UN
Goldstone Report which accused Israel of war crimes in its 2008
invasion of Gaza.
It embarked on a diplomatic offensive with Arab states in 2008,
offering Syria and Egypt nuclear power stations, and is
re-establishing a military presence in the Mediterranean at the Syrian
port, Tartus, though Syria s current civil war, with Russia and Iran
lined up against the West and the Arab states could leave Russia on
the losing side. Western attempts to portray Russia as the
power-hungry bad guy in Syria do not hold water. Russia is concerned
about heightened civil war in an evenly divided population, with rebel
groups openly armed by Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad s Arab and
Western foes. The hypocrisy in the Arab world is appalling: Gulf
monarchies and Saudi Arabia loudly demand that Egypt s new government
swear off any attempt to interfere in their internal politics, but
brazenly arm Syrian rebels.
Russia is still struggling to leave its own tragic civil war in
Chechnya behind, and to make sure there s a place at the table for its
Muslims. With its 16 million Muslims (about 12 per cent of the
population), it has expressed interest in joining the Organization of
Islamic Conference. Its unwillingness to let Syria slide into civil
war does not gain it any brownie points among its own separatist
Muslims in the Caucasus and elsewhere, but it is not willing to carve
up either Syria or the Russian federation in the interests of some
fleeting peace.
The importance of Jewish financial and economic interests in
post-Soviet Russia both the banking and industrial oligarchs and the
Kosher Nostra mafia ensures that Israel gets a sympathetic hearing
from Russian leaders. Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman is a
Russian Jew who emigrated from the Soviet Union in 1978.
Israel is also able to take advantage of the persistence of Muslim
unrest and dreams of independence in the Caucasus within Russia to
prevent Moscow from taking any strong position to pressure Israel.
Russia s prickly neighbor Georgia harbors Chechen rebels and Georgia s
president, Mikheil Saakashvili, uses Israeli and US military advisers.
Of course, the US benefits from Israeli pressures on Russia. This is a
key feature of the current Great Game, where the US and Israel act as
the new imperial centre .
It is popular to call this era a new Cold War. However, history never
repeats itself. There certainly is a new tension in world politics
following 9/11, and the failure of the newly aggressive US to
successfully assert its hegemony around the world, including Russia,
keeps the fires of chauvinism hot in the US. On the US right, Russia
is seen merely as the Soviet Union reborn, a ruse to hide the KGB s
agenda of world communist control. For the saner Obamites, it is a
more diffused Cold War, dominated by a new US-Israeli imperial centre,
the empire-and-a-half , with shifting alliances of convenience, though
with a strong, new opposition player on the horizon a savvier, more
articulate Islamic world, with Iran, Turkey and Egypt in the first
rank.
The desire by both the US and Israel to overthrow the Iranian
government is now the only common goal left in this empire-and-a-half
, but it is a common goal only because Israel is in the driver s seat.
Israel resents Iran as an existential threat not to Israel itself, but
to Greater Israel and regional domination. Iran serves as a powerful
example, a third way for Muslim countries, and is most definitely a
rival to Israel as Middle East hegemon.
Among the new Arab Spring governments, it is only Egypt s that worries
Israel. Just imagine if Egypt and Iran start to cooperate. Add in
Shia-dominated Iraq, Turkey and Russia, as Russia has good relations
with all four, and common objects on the international scene. Suddenly
the Middle East playing field takes on a totally different appearance.
A rational US policy to join with Russia and China to accommodate Iran
could save the teetering dollar, or at least give the US a chance to
prepare for an orderly transition to a new international currency. If
Russia, China and Iran defuse the current nuclear crisis between the
US and Iran peacefully, with a nod to Turkey and a resolve to make
Israel join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, this could pave the
way for a new Eurasian playing field. If, and when, the US withdraws
from Afghanistan, Pakistan and India will be drawn in as well.
This would set off a chain of events that could change the whole
nature of the current Great Game leading to a Russia-India-Iran-China
axis (Russia-India-China summits have already been held yearly since
2001), leaving Pakistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Israel to sort out
their regional conflicts outside of a new, very different great game.
US interests would be considered but without US diktat, forcing, or
rather allowing the US to put its own house in order. Iran would
finally be accepted as the legitimate regional player that it is. If
the US cannot bring itself to make a graceful exit from its
self-imposed crisis in the region, this will only accelerate its
decline.
Russia inherits fond memories across the Middle East region as the
anti-Zionist Soviet Union s successor. It now has the chance to gain
long term credibility as a principled partner not only in the Middle
East but to non-aligned countries everywhere, and should hold the
fort, the anti-imperial one, against what s left of empire.
August 16, 2012 Thursday 3:54 AM EST
Russia in the Middle East: Return of a Superpower?
The world is living through a veritable slow-motion earthquake. If
things go according to plan, the US obsession with Afghanistan and
Iraq will soon be one of those ugly historical disfigurements that at
least for most Americans will disappear into the memory hole.
Like Nixon and Vietnam, US President Barack Obama will be remembered
as the president who brought the troops home . But one cannot help but
notice the careful calibration of these moves to fit the US domestic
political machine the Iraqi move to show Americans that things on the
international front are improving (just don t mention Guantanamo), the
Afghan move put off conveniently till President Barack Obama's second
term, when he doesn t need to worry about the fallout electorally if
things unravel (which they surely will).
Of course, Russia lost big time geopolitically when the US invaded
Afghanistan, and thus gains as regional geopolitical hegemon by the
withdrawal of US troops from Central Asia. Just look at any map. But
American tentacles will remain: Central Asia has no real alternative
economically or politically anymore to the neoliberal global economy,
as Russia no longer claims to represent a socialist alternative to
imperialism. The departure of US troops and planes from remote
Kyrgyzstan will not be missed except for the hole it leaves in the
already penurious Kyrgyz government s budget and foreign currency
reserves. Russia is a far weaker entity than the Soviet Union, both
economically and politically. Thus, Russia s gain from US weakness is
not great.
Besides, both Russia and the US support the current Afghan government
against the Taliban as does Iran. In fact, in case US state department
and pentagon officials haven t noticed the obvious, the main
beneficiary of the US invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq has been Iran,
again by definition. The invasion brought to power the ethnic Persian
Tajiks in Afghanistan, and the invasion of Iraq set up a
Shia-dominated government there.
Similarly, when the US invaded Iraq, Russia lost politically and
economically. The US cancelled Saddam Hussein s state debts, which
hurt the Russians and Europeans but not the US. The US just happened
to be boycotting Iraq for the previous decade and took pleasure from
shafting its sometime allies for ignoring US wishes. However, once
Iraqi politicians begin to reassert some control over their foreign
policy, Russia will be seen as a much more sympathetic partner
internationally.
Ironically, on many fronts, Iran now holds the key to readjusting the
political playing field and establishing rules that can lead away from
the deadly game being played by the US, including in Afghanistan,
Iraq, with broader implications for broader nuclear disarmament, EU-US
relations, but above all, for the continued role of the dollar as
world reserve currency. This encourages Russia to maintain its
alliance with Iran over vague (and empty) promises of US-Russian world
hegemony as envisioned by the now-discredited Medvedev Atlantists in
Moscow.
Russia s relations with both Central Asia and the Middle East since
the collapse of the Soviet Union have been low key. In the Middle
East, it maintains relations with Palestine s Hamas, and, as a member
of the so-called quartet of Middle East negotiators (along with the
EU, the US and the UN), insists that Israel freeze expansion of
settlements in the Occupied Territories as a condition of further
talks. It appears to be trying to regain some of the goodwill that
existed between the Soviet Union and Arab states, supporting the UN
Goldstone Report which accused Israel of war crimes in its 2008
invasion of Gaza.
It embarked on a diplomatic offensive with Arab states in 2008,
offering Syria and Egypt nuclear power stations, and is
re-establishing a military presence in the Mediterranean at the Syrian
port, Tartus, though Syria s current civil war, with Russia and Iran
lined up against the West and the Arab states could leave Russia on
the losing side. Western attempts to portray Russia as the
power-hungry bad guy in Syria do not hold water. Russia is concerned
about heightened civil war in an evenly divided population, with rebel
groups openly armed by Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad s Arab and
Western foes. The hypocrisy in the Arab world is appalling: Gulf
monarchies and Saudi Arabia loudly demand that Egypt s new government
swear off any attempt to interfere in their internal politics, but
brazenly arm Syrian rebels.
Russia is still struggling to leave its own tragic civil war in
Chechnya behind, and to make sure there s a place at the table for its
Muslims. With its 16 million Muslims (about 12 per cent of the
population), it has expressed interest in joining the Organization of
Islamic Conference. Its unwillingness to let Syria slide into civil
war does not gain it any brownie points among its own separatist
Muslims in the Caucasus and elsewhere, but it is not willing to carve
up either Syria or the Russian federation in the interests of some
fleeting peace.
The importance of Jewish financial and economic interests in
post-Soviet Russia both the banking and industrial oligarchs and the
Kosher Nostra mafia ensures that Israel gets a sympathetic hearing
from Russian leaders. Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman is a
Russian Jew who emigrated from the Soviet Union in 1978.
Israel is also able to take advantage of the persistence of Muslim
unrest and dreams of independence in the Caucasus within Russia to
prevent Moscow from taking any strong position to pressure Israel.
Russia s prickly neighbor Georgia harbors Chechen rebels and Georgia s
president, Mikheil Saakashvili, uses Israeli and US military advisers.
Of course, the US benefits from Israeli pressures on Russia. This is a
key feature of the current Great Game, where the US and Israel act as
the new imperial centre .
It is popular to call this era a new Cold War. However, history never
repeats itself. There certainly is a new tension in world politics
following 9/11, and the failure of the newly aggressive US to
successfully assert its hegemony around the world, including Russia,
keeps the fires of chauvinism hot in the US. On the US right, Russia
is seen merely as the Soviet Union reborn, a ruse to hide the KGB s
agenda of world communist control. For the saner Obamites, it is a
more diffused Cold War, dominated by a new US-Israeli imperial centre,
the empire-and-a-half , with shifting alliances of convenience, though
with a strong, new opposition player on the horizon a savvier, more
articulate Islamic world, with Iran, Turkey and Egypt in the first
rank.
The desire by both the US and Israel to overthrow the Iranian
government is now the only common goal left in this empire-and-a-half
, but it is a common goal only because Israel is in the driver s seat.
Israel resents Iran as an existential threat not to Israel itself, but
to Greater Israel and regional domination. Iran serves as a powerful
example, a third way for Muslim countries, and is most definitely a
rival to Israel as Middle East hegemon.
Among the new Arab Spring governments, it is only Egypt s that worries
Israel. Just imagine if Egypt and Iran start to cooperate. Add in
Shia-dominated Iraq, Turkey and Russia, as Russia has good relations
with all four, and common objects on the international scene. Suddenly
the Middle East playing field takes on a totally different appearance.
A rational US policy to join with Russia and China to accommodate Iran
could save the teetering dollar, or at least give the US a chance to
prepare for an orderly transition to a new international currency. If
Russia, China and Iran defuse the current nuclear crisis between the
US and Iran peacefully, with a nod to Turkey and a resolve to make
Israel join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, this could pave the
way for a new Eurasian playing field. If, and when, the US withdraws
from Afghanistan, Pakistan and India will be drawn in as well.
This would set off a chain of events that could change the whole
nature of the current Great Game leading to a Russia-India-Iran-China
axis (Russia-India-China summits have already been held yearly since
2001), leaving Pakistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Israel to sort out
their regional conflicts outside of a new, very different great game.
US interests would be considered but without US diktat, forcing, or
rather allowing the US to put its own house in order. Iran would
finally be accepted as the legitimate regional player that it is. If
the US cannot bring itself to make a graceful exit from its
self-imposed crisis in the region, this will only accelerate its
decline.
Russia inherits fond memories across the Middle East region as the
anti-Zionist Soviet Union s successor. It now has the chance to gain
long term credibility as a principled partner not only in the Middle
East but to non-aligned countries everywhere, and should hold the
fort, the anti-imperial one, against what s left of empire.