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Aug 21 2012
Nagorno Karabakh Independence Fight Sends Caucasus Region on the Brink of War
Haykaram Nahapetyan
Several days ago, Nagorno-Karabakh's army conducted maneuvers and
practiced counter-offensive drills. Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous
territory with a population of about 140,000, has been at the center
of a frozen conflict in the South Caucuses. Most recently, the
Armenian-populated Karabakh's army exercises followed Azerbaijan's
large-scale maneuvers in July.
While Karabakh's Ministry of Defense is trying to remain calm, anxiety
is growing in Washington, DC over the renewed conflict.
First, some history: In July 1921, the Bolshevik Party's Caucasian
bureau adopted two conflicting decisions. First, it assigned
Nagorno-Karabakh to Soviet Armenia, but changed its mind within 24
hours under Stalin's pressure, and adopted a new decision to form an
autonomous district with an Armenian-populated region within Soviet
Azerbaijan. Throughout the following decades, tensions have risen and
eventually resulted in a full-blown war. With some 30,000 dead and
more than a million displaced, a ceasefire was established in 1994,
with Armenians controlling the majority of the former Nagorno-Karabakh
autonomous district, plus several adjacent regions, which are largely
referred to as a `buffer zone.' Since then, peace negotiations have
been led by the United States, Russia, and France, the Co-Chairs of
the Minsk Group, which was created in 1992 by the Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe to help settle the Nagorno-Karabakh
dispute.
Although Nagorno-Karabakh has proclaimed its independence, it is not
recognized by any country. The State Houses of Rhode Island and
Massachusetts adopted resolutions supporting Nagorno-Karabakh
Republic's independence in May and July of 2012, respectively, thus
opening a new chapter in Karabakh's efforts to gain international
attention. During the past years, Karabakh has adopted a constitution,
opened offices in several countries, including the U.S., France,
Russia, and Germany, and elected three presidents. The incumbent
president Bako Sahakyan was reelected in July. However, about 20 years
of peace negotiations have resulted in no peace. And no war.
In recent years, tensions have escalated. Baku's military budget is
nearing four billion, although some claim Baku artificially inflates
the number, including its spending on police and even reconstruction
of the courthouses, into its military budget list.
However, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research
Institute, Azerbaijan ranked first in the world in its increase of its
military spending in 2011 - 88%. Armenian's military spending is about
$400 million annually.
This growing military budget, along with almost routine ceasefire
violations, has exacerbated the arms race and may contribute to
another Caucasian war.
According to Russian analyst Aleksander Khramchikhin, `the likelihood
of a new war in NK reached 99.99%.' The mediators continue to appease
the parties amid anxiety. Washington-based analysts Jeff Mankoff
(CSIS), Stephen Blank (SSI), Thomas de Waal (Carnegie foundation),
Jeff Goldstein (OSI) as well as the officials at the Department of
State and White House have called the parties to refrain from a
military solution.
The newly appointed U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan, Richard
Morningstar, mentioned during his meeting with the U.S.-Azerbaijani
community members: `peace in Karabakh will be beneficial for all
parties.'
http://www.policymic.com/articles/13193/nagorno-karabakh-independence-fight-sends-caucasus-region-on-the-brink-of-war
Aug 21 2012
Nagorno Karabakh Independence Fight Sends Caucasus Region on the Brink of War
Haykaram Nahapetyan
Several days ago, Nagorno-Karabakh's army conducted maneuvers and
practiced counter-offensive drills. Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous
territory with a population of about 140,000, has been at the center
of a frozen conflict in the South Caucuses. Most recently, the
Armenian-populated Karabakh's army exercises followed Azerbaijan's
large-scale maneuvers in July.
While Karabakh's Ministry of Defense is trying to remain calm, anxiety
is growing in Washington, DC over the renewed conflict.
First, some history: In July 1921, the Bolshevik Party's Caucasian
bureau adopted two conflicting decisions. First, it assigned
Nagorno-Karabakh to Soviet Armenia, but changed its mind within 24
hours under Stalin's pressure, and adopted a new decision to form an
autonomous district with an Armenian-populated region within Soviet
Azerbaijan. Throughout the following decades, tensions have risen and
eventually resulted in a full-blown war. With some 30,000 dead and
more than a million displaced, a ceasefire was established in 1994,
with Armenians controlling the majority of the former Nagorno-Karabakh
autonomous district, plus several adjacent regions, which are largely
referred to as a `buffer zone.' Since then, peace negotiations have
been led by the United States, Russia, and France, the Co-Chairs of
the Minsk Group, which was created in 1992 by the Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe to help settle the Nagorno-Karabakh
dispute.
Although Nagorno-Karabakh has proclaimed its independence, it is not
recognized by any country. The State Houses of Rhode Island and
Massachusetts adopted resolutions supporting Nagorno-Karabakh
Republic's independence in May and July of 2012, respectively, thus
opening a new chapter in Karabakh's efforts to gain international
attention. During the past years, Karabakh has adopted a constitution,
opened offices in several countries, including the U.S., France,
Russia, and Germany, and elected three presidents. The incumbent
president Bako Sahakyan was reelected in July. However, about 20 years
of peace negotiations have resulted in no peace. And no war.
In recent years, tensions have escalated. Baku's military budget is
nearing four billion, although some claim Baku artificially inflates
the number, including its spending on police and even reconstruction
of the courthouses, into its military budget list.
However, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research
Institute, Azerbaijan ranked first in the world in its increase of its
military spending in 2011 - 88%. Armenian's military spending is about
$400 million annually.
This growing military budget, along with almost routine ceasefire
violations, has exacerbated the arms race and may contribute to
another Caucasian war.
According to Russian analyst Aleksander Khramchikhin, `the likelihood
of a new war in NK reached 99.99%.' The mediators continue to appease
the parties amid anxiety. Washington-based analysts Jeff Mankoff
(CSIS), Stephen Blank (SSI), Thomas de Waal (Carnegie foundation),
Jeff Goldstein (OSI) as well as the officials at the Department of
State and White House have called the parties to refrain from a
military solution.
The newly appointed U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan, Richard
Morningstar, mentioned during his meeting with the U.S.-Azerbaijani
community members: `peace in Karabakh will be beneficial for all
parties.'
http://www.policymic.com/articles/13193/nagorno-karabakh-independence-fight-sends-caucasus-region-on-the-brink-of-war