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Ruben Mehrabyan: There are still no forces and factors in Armenia able
to hinder the attempt of authorities to reproduce
Interview of expert of Armenian Centre for Political and International
Studies Ruben Mehrabyan with ArmInfo news agency
by Ashot Safaryan
arminfo
Friday, August 24, 12:43
Mr Mehrabyan, one will hardly doubt about the victory of the ruling
party in the local government bodies in Armenia,. What instruments may
be used by the Republican Party of Armenia and how much success will
promote strengthening of the RPA during the presidential election?
The forthcoming local elections in Armenia are a kind of an entree to
the upcoming presidential elections. Moreover, the authorities will
use these elections to reinforce their positions and, eventually, to
remain at power after the presidential elections. At the moment I
observe no obstacles in the way of the authorities' plans.
The position of the Armenian National Congress has declined much for
the last period of time. Will it found any stimulus or circumstances
on the threshold of the presidential election, able give an impulse
and the "second breath" to this force?
There are a lot of external and internal reasons for that. For
instance, the Armenian National Congress (ANC), which has been
considering itself a titular opposition for a long time, is currently
experiencing degradation. The ANC has passed numerous points of no
return, thereby destroying any opportunity for a "second breath". The
ANC has already become
bureaucratized, has considerably shrunk and ceased to be the force
that could form the domestic political agenda. Consequently, the
logic of the domestic political process will be maintained unless any
force majeure situations occur. And I am deeply sorry to say that.
The expected victory of the ruling party at the local and presidential
elections demonstrates the bogginess of the state system, not its
firmness. And this shows the institutional weakness of the state, the
decline of the foreign political potential, as well as the potential
of resistance to challenges faced and to be faced by our state.
The oppositionally tuned society in Armenia has not disappeared and
the grounds and reasons of the opposition mood have been also
preserved, as in fact the authorities did nothing to turn the promises
into reality. Not setting up of the new parties but formation of the
civil society able to attract wide layers of the society is needed to
give a systemized nature to this displeasure and direct it to the
needed direction. It is impossible to improve the situation in the
country without a serious civil society and without active reaction at
the relevant political problems.
Have all the rest political forces which more or less confront to the
ruling party already agreed to the reality mentioned by you or there
will be brave persons which will display true confrontation to the
authorities in the attempt to regenerate?
I think there will be some resistance to the authorities' plans, that
resistance will be of a local nature. One should hardly speak of any
possible centralized resistance. When I
speak of the power, I am not inclined to separate the Prosperous
Armenia Party (PAP) from the Republican Party of Armenia. These are
just the two faces of the same ruling party. The PAP's attempts to
distance itself from the RPA, as well as its statements that it is an
"alternative" force are nothing but pre-electoral populism, just a
trick aimed at misleading the voters who cannot make sense of the
backstage political games or show no interest in these processes.
Let's talk about public movements and initiatives which raise hopes
for improvement of the public and political regime, as many people
think.
Although the fight of the public movements for making responsible the
persons guilty for the incident at Harsnaqar restaurant and the
protest against development of the Tekhut deposit are local and
spontaneous initiatives, nevertheless, these initiatives are evidence
of a significant potential of our citizens which has not been used
yet. The only thing I am scared of is shortage of time which won't be
enough till the forthcoming presidential election. Nevertheless, we
must not be idle. We should act every day and every hour. We should
also take into consideration that the share of frustration and evil is
much in the society. I would not like them to result in any inadequate
situations and actions.
Can nomination of a single opposition candidate at the presidential
election neutralize a little bit consequences of the bogginess and
bureaucratization of the opposition forces?
The nomination of a single opposition candidate at the presidential
elections in Armenia is unable to neutralize the consequences of the
bogginess and bureaucratization of the opposition forces. The
current institutional crisis in Armenia affects the parties. We speak
about democracy, about the fight for democracy, but at the same time
we have parties, where, figuratively saying, absolute and even
"theocratic" monarchy is ruling. Thus, it becomes senseless to speak
of the fight for democracy with such tools. When speaking of
democracy, one should simply start changing oneself. Armenia needs a
wider, non-partisan format, which sets itself a goal to change the
whole structure of state governance, i.e. the oligarchic, clan system
of monopolism. Moreover, I believe that the presidential system of
governing in Armenia starts hindering the development of democracy and
the civil society. The presidential model of governance lays the bases
of this "absolute monarchy".
We need a parliamentary system of governance. Some countries of the
former USSR are gradually switching to that system. They start
"diluting" the institute of presidential power. We see it in Moldova
and Georgia. I think Armenia also needs such "dilution" of the
presidential power and introduction of a system of counterbalances.
And in this matter I see a great potential for reaching a civil and
political consensus on dismantling the oligarchic system.
to hinder the attempt of authorities to reproduce
Interview of expert of Armenian Centre for Political and International
Studies Ruben Mehrabyan with ArmInfo news agency
by Ashot Safaryan
arminfo
Friday, August 24, 12:43
Mr Mehrabyan, one will hardly doubt about the victory of the ruling
party in the local government bodies in Armenia,. What instruments may
be used by the Republican Party of Armenia and how much success will
promote strengthening of the RPA during the presidential election?
The forthcoming local elections in Armenia are a kind of an entree to
the upcoming presidential elections. Moreover, the authorities will
use these elections to reinforce their positions and, eventually, to
remain at power after the presidential elections. At the moment I
observe no obstacles in the way of the authorities' plans.
The position of the Armenian National Congress has declined much for
the last period of time. Will it found any stimulus or circumstances
on the threshold of the presidential election, able give an impulse
and the "second breath" to this force?
There are a lot of external and internal reasons for that. For
instance, the Armenian National Congress (ANC), which has been
considering itself a titular opposition for a long time, is currently
experiencing degradation. The ANC has passed numerous points of no
return, thereby destroying any opportunity for a "second breath". The
ANC has already become
bureaucratized, has considerably shrunk and ceased to be the force
that could form the domestic political agenda. Consequently, the
logic of the domestic political process will be maintained unless any
force majeure situations occur. And I am deeply sorry to say that.
The expected victory of the ruling party at the local and presidential
elections demonstrates the bogginess of the state system, not its
firmness. And this shows the institutional weakness of the state, the
decline of the foreign political potential, as well as the potential
of resistance to challenges faced and to be faced by our state.
The oppositionally tuned society in Armenia has not disappeared and
the grounds and reasons of the opposition mood have been also
preserved, as in fact the authorities did nothing to turn the promises
into reality. Not setting up of the new parties but formation of the
civil society able to attract wide layers of the society is needed to
give a systemized nature to this displeasure and direct it to the
needed direction. It is impossible to improve the situation in the
country without a serious civil society and without active reaction at
the relevant political problems.
Have all the rest political forces which more or less confront to the
ruling party already agreed to the reality mentioned by you or there
will be brave persons which will display true confrontation to the
authorities in the attempt to regenerate?
I think there will be some resistance to the authorities' plans, that
resistance will be of a local nature. One should hardly speak of any
possible centralized resistance. When I
speak of the power, I am not inclined to separate the Prosperous
Armenia Party (PAP) from the Republican Party of Armenia. These are
just the two faces of the same ruling party. The PAP's attempts to
distance itself from the RPA, as well as its statements that it is an
"alternative" force are nothing but pre-electoral populism, just a
trick aimed at misleading the voters who cannot make sense of the
backstage political games or show no interest in these processes.
Let's talk about public movements and initiatives which raise hopes
for improvement of the public and political regime, as many people
think.
Although the fight of the public movements for making responsible the
persons guilty for the incident at Harsnaqar restaurant and the
protest against development of the Tekhut deposit are local and
spontaneous initiatives, nevertheless, these initiatives are evidence
of a significant potential of our citizens which has not been used
yet. The only thing I am scared of is shortage of time which won't be
enough till the forthcoming presidential election. Nevertheless, we
must not be idle. We should act every day and every hour. We should
also take into consideration that the share of frustration and evil is
much in the society. I would not like them to result in any inadequate
situations and actions.
Can nomination of a single opposition candidate at the presidential
election neutralize a little bit consequences of the bogginess and
bureaucratization of the opposition forces?
The nomination of a single opposition candidate at the presidential
elections in Armenia is unable to neutralize the consequences of the
bogginess and bureaucratization of the opposition forces. The
current institutional crisis in Armenia affects the parties. We speak
about democracy, about the fight for democracy, but at the same time
we have parties, where, figuratively saying, absolute and even
"theocratic" monarchy is ruling. Thus, it becomes senseless to speak
of the fight for democracy with such tools. When speaking of
democracy, one should simply start changing oneself. Armenia needs a
wider, non-partisan format, which sets itself a goal to change the
whole structure of state governance, i.e. the oligarchic, clan system
of monopolism. Moreover, I believe that the presidential system of
governing in Armenia starts hindering the development of democracy and
the civil society. The presidential model of governance lays the bases
of this "absolute monarchy".
We need a parliamentary system of governance. Some countries of the
former USSR are gradually switching to that system. They start
"diluting" the institute of presidential power. We see it in Moldova
and Georgia. I think Armenia also needs such "dilution" of the
presidential power and introduction of a system of counterbalances.
And in this matter I see a great potential for reaching a civil and
political consensus on dismantling the oligarchic system.