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Syndrome Of Only Friend Diminishes
HAKOB BADALYAN
22:31 30/11/2012
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/comments/view/28223
The EPP Eastern Partnership summit held in Armenia on November 30 is a
significant event which is evidence to deepening relations with
Armenia. Ahead of this event, Armenia had intensive communication in
the Russian domain. The prime minister stated in interviews with
Russian media that EU integration and integration with the Eurasian
Union should not rule out each other.
On November 29 Nikolay Rizhkov of Russia arrived in Armenia and
announced that Putin may visit Armenia in 2013 (if Armenia behaves
itself). The head of Rosgranitsa arrived in Armenia and set up a
branch office of its organization.
Ahead of reception of high-ranking European guests, official Yerevan
tried to convince Moscow that it will deepen relations with Europe not
in prejudice of relations with Russia.
Will Yerevan sway Moscow? Who knows? The Kremlin is not stupid and
understands that harmonization of Europe and the Eurasian idea is an
extremely difficult, almost an unreal cause. Europe also tells Armenia
so, and if so far it has been confined to backstage talks now it is
stated at a diplomatic level. During a recent seminar in Yerevan the
EU Delegation official Onno Simons stated that Armenia should make a
choice between the two.
The Kremlin also acknowledges that they will lose the competition to
the West because the West has a methodological and technical advantage
in both economy and politics which will transform to the new status
quo of influence on the Caucasus, which is already partly visible.
There is nothing Moscow can do but review its approaches, namely in
terms of the strategy of the relation with Armenia. The Kremlin must
change its perception that Armenia is its subject forever.
While the ruling elite and political class of Armenia care for their
own destiny only and view Moscow their protector, the society is
reviewing this approach.
The syndrome of the only friend is slowly but steadily diminishing.
Disregarding this would be a strategic mistake of Moscow. Even though
the words of Russian emissaries are convincing and their pockets are
full, the reality is stronger. And the contacts with the world will
eventually help the Armenian people recognize the reality.
By keeping the relationship with Armenia in the framework of old
perceptions and interpretation, the Kremlin will oppose to natural and
reasonable stream where toughness will lead to resistance. In
addition, we are currently at the beginning of this process.
Moscow needs to review the concept of its relations with Armenia where
it will be entitled to a neutral role which will not hinder its
transformation because hindrances will produce the opposite effect,
and Armenia and Russia will inevitably depart. The problem is not
Armenia but Russia because Russia does not have a concept of relations
with new Armenia. For Russia the problem is its own perception rather
than the review of foreign political orientation.
Deep inside there is no change because there is no orientation either.
In the long run, there is only an instinctive feeling for the global
conjuncture which is a stronger factor than conscious orientation.
At the same time, Russia does not possess the resource required to
stop change driven by that feeling. The problem is time but sooner or
later Armenia will undergo serious change with or without the ruling
system. Consequently, Russia needs to get ready for this rather than
to make futile efforts to counteract.
After all, not only Armenia but also Russia is facing a choice. Either
Moscow will review its concept of relation with Armenia or will
eventually lose Armenia for a long term.
HAKOB BADALYAN
22:31 30/11/2012
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/comments/view/28223
The EPP Eastern Partnership summit held in Armenia on November 30 is a
significant event which is evidence to deepening relations with
Armenia. Ahead of this event, Armenia had intensive communication in
the Russian domain. The prime minister stated in interviews with
Russian media that EU integration and integration with the Eurasian
Union should not rule out each other.
On November 29 Nikolay Rizhkov of Russia arrived in Armenia and
announced that Putin may visit Armenia in 2013 (if Armenia behaves
itself). The head of Rosgranitsa arrived in Armenia and set up a
branch office of its organization.
Ahead of reception of high-ranking European guests, official Yerevan
tried to convince Moscow that it will deepen relations with Europe not
in prejudice of relations with Russia.
Will Yerevan sway Moscow? Who knows? The Kremlin is not stupid and
understands that harmonization of Europe and the Eurasian idea is an
extremely difficult, almost an unreal cause. Europe also tells Armenia
so, and if so far it has been confined to backstage talks now it is
stated at a diplomatic level. During a recent seminar in Yerevan the
EU Delegation official Onno Simons stated that Armenia should make a
choice between the two.
The Kremlin also acknowledges that they will lose the competition to
the West because the West has a methodological and technical advantage
in both economy and politics which will transform to the new status
quo of influence on the Caucasus, which is already partly visible.
There is nothing Moscow can do but review its approaches, namely in
terms of the strategy of the relation with Armenia. The Kremlin must
change its perception that Armenia is its subject forever.
While the ruling elite and political class of Armenia care for their
own destiny only and view Moscow their protector, the society is
reviewing this approach.
The syndrome of the only friend is slowly but steadily diminishing.
Disregarding this would be a strategic mistake of Moscow. Even though
the words of Russian emissaries are convincing and their pockets are
full, the reality is stronger. And the contacts with the world will
eventually help the Armenian people recognize the reality.
By keeping the relationship with Armenia in the framework of old
perceptions and interpretation, the Kremlin will oppose to natural and
reasonable stream where toughness will lead to resistance. In
addition, we are currently at the beginning of this process.
Moscow needs to review the concept of its relations with Armenia where
it will be entitled to a neutral role which will not hinder its
transformation because hindrances will produce the opposite effect,
and Armenia and Russia will inevitably depart. The problem is not
Armenia but Russia because Russia does not have a concept of relations
with new Armenia. For Russia the problem is its own perception rather
than the review of foreign political orientation.
Deep inside there is no change because there is no orientation either.
In the long run, there is only an instinctive feeling for the global
conjuncture which is a stronger factor than conscious orientation.
At the same time, Russia does not possess the resource required to
stop change driven by that feeling. The problem is time but sooner or
later Armenia will undergo serious change with or without the ruling
system. Consequently, Russia needs to get ready for this rather than
to make futile efforts to counteract.
After all, not only Armenia but also Russia is facing a choice. Either
Moscow will review its concept of relation with Armenia or will
eventually lose Armenia for a long term.