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Armenia: Major Players In Presidential Elections

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  • Armenia: Major Players In Presidential Elections

    ARMENIA: MAJOR PLAYERS IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

    Vestnik Kavkaza
    Dec 4 2012
    Russia

    Susanna Petrosyan in Yerevan. Exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza

    On the eve of the presidential elections, the political field
    of Armenia is gradually getting rid of insignificant players. The
    process of crystallization is continuing, while major players appear
    on the political scene more visibly. However, there are not many
    major political groups or figures in Armenia.

    Current President Serzh Sargsyan has the greatest resources,
    controlling 90-95% of the media, parliament, the government, the
    judicial system and all power structures. He is supported by external
    players, particularly by Washington and Brussels. In addition,
    Sargsyan controls the central electoral commission, in particular
    regional electoral commissions.

    In certain circumstances, he might receive the support of
    Nagorno-Karabakh. Thet have already intervened in central politics at
    the request of Yerevan and assisted the Armenian government. Despite
    almost total control over the myriad of leverages, the socio-economic
    situation is extremely unfavorable to the current president.

    During Sargsyan's term there have been no reforms. His presidential
    term can be characterized by the Soviet term "stagnation", which
    was often associated with Brezhnev's years. As is already known,
    stagnation can always lead to certain movements in society. In this
    regard, it is difficult not to agree with the ex-foreign minister,
    a member of the Prosperous Armenia Party, Vardan Oskanyan: "Today,
    Armenia's political field is divided into two poles. One pole consists
    of the authorities, which, of course, wants to perpetuate itself,
    which means maintaining the status quo. Another pole, which consists
    of a large number of political parties, expresses its position to
    conduct immediate systematic changes in the country. If there are
    two poles in the political field, there is only one in society -
    society wants to see dramatic changes."

    In order to improve the president's popularity, the propaganda machine
    he controls is trying to convince the public that Robert Kocharyan
    is even more unwanted than Sargsyan. In the current situation, when
    the leader of the PAP Gagik Tsarukyan will become the main rival of
    the ruling party at the presidential elections, Kocharyan's case is
    being used in direct relation to the PAP and Tsarukyan. In particular,
    Tsarukyan is presented as a puppet of Robert Kocharyan. A great number
    of newspapers, TV and radio channels are trying to persuade Armenians
    that Tsarukyan is Kocharyan's puppet.

    In order not to get lost in the flow of speculations and expert
    opinions, one has to analyze the role Kocharyan has in the public
    consciousness. In essence, Kocharyan has been rejected by Armenian
    society due to his attitude towards his opponents and the carnage which
    took place on March 1, 2008, which is blamed entirely on Kocharyan,
    then the head of state. For that reason, any politician willing to
    win over the electorate in Armenia has to stay away from Kocharyan.

    Most probably, Tsarukyan understands this obvious truth. The desire
    to distance himself from the former president is evident, not only
    from the actions of the PAP and statements of its leaders claiming
    that the PAP is independent from Korcharyan. Another former coalition
    party, the ARF, demonstrates the same approach.

    Kocharyan himself, of course, tries to influence the political
    process, but it is unlikely that he will have the support of political
    forces. His figure is present on the political field, but that does
    not mean that it has any significant impact.

    In one way or another, Tsarukyan remains the main opponent of Sargsyan,
    while his party, the PAP, remains a resourceful party. The PAP, similar
    to the ruling party, lacks an ideology. However, compared with the
    authorities it has a great advantage, since it is propagating the
    changes so desired in society. PAP representatives have repeatedly
    expressed the need to create a favorable environment for the
    development of small and medium-sized enterprises, which could
    contribute to finding a solution to the dire socio-economic situation.

    Deputies from this party - recently only a coalition party - were
    highly critical of the budget for 2013. Most recently, the PAP
    faction supported the initiative of a radical opposition party,
    the Armenian National Congress (ANC), to amend the Electoral Code,
    the Criminal Code and the law "On the State Register" before the
    presidential election. In this regard, in the eyes of the public,
    the PAP has a much more favorable image than the authorities.

    In addition to considerable financial and human resources, with the
    "Kentron" TV channel under its control and several websites, the PAP
    also has a problem: a part of the society does not believe that the
    PAP is a rival to the ruling Republican Party (RPA) and Serzh Sargsyan.

    Today, there is an interesting situation on Armenia's political scene.

    The PAP seems to have a larger electorate than the ANC. In the last
    parliamentary elections it was given 450,000 votes, while only about
    100,000 people voted for the ANC. However, the PAP can expect to win
    only in alliance with the ANC, since state propaganda has made some
    members of the Armenian society distrustful of the PAP and its leader.

    In case the PAP becomes an ally of the ANC, people will start
    perceiving it as more trustworthy party - only a few people in Armenia
    would expect the ANC to cooperate with the authorities. Despite all
    criticisms, nobody in the country has doubts regarding the opposition
    nature of the ANC.

    Such a political alliance might result in more votes than simply in
    450,000 votes + 100,000 votes. The Armenian people trust associations
    more than single candidates or parties. The presidential elections
    of 1996, 2003 and 2008 serve as proof of that.

    The ARF remains a significant political power. On the eve of elections,
    the PAP, the ANC and the ARF are conducting frequent political
    consultations. The head of the central office of the ANC, deputy Levon
    Zurabyan, does not rule out that the ANC and the PAP may nominate a
    single candidate. In turn, a representative of the ARF Supreme Body,
    deputy Armen Rustamyan, stated that the party has still to take a
    decision regarding its participation in the presidential elections.

    Other remaining political forces are unlikely to have an impact on
    the political processes in Armenia. Presidential candidates Raffi
    Hovannisian from the Heritage party, Aram Karapetyan from New Times
    and Paruyr Hayrikyan of National Self-determination do not have the
    number of potential votes required to compete for power. The upcoming
    presidential elections also differ from previous ones because this
    time the authorities have failed to find a suitable pseudo-candidate.

    http://vestnikkavkaza.net/analysis/politics/34466.html




    From: A. Papazian
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