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MOSCOW-BAKU CONFRONTATION
Karine Ter-Sahakian
PanARMENIAN.Net
December 5, 2012
Pro-western urge along with confrontation with Russia did no good to
any of the post-Soviet republics so far.
The relations between Azerbaijan and Russia which have been almost
normal during Dmitry Medvedev's tenure have started to deteriorate;
this is happening quite quickly and, interestingly enough, on Baku's
initiative. If the oil and petrodollars can really turn people's heads,
Ilham Aliyev seems to be playing with fire.
PanARMENIAN.Net - Pro-western urge along with confrontation with
Russia did no good to any of the post-Soviet republics so far;
Georgia, as well as Middle Asian republics present a wonderful example
thereof. Yet Baku has no wish to see the reality, and Azerbaijani
media, the mouthpiece of pro-government politicians, have launched
an active anti-Russian campaign. Interestingly, Baku really believes
that the Kremlin constantly demonstrates toughness and even aggression
to Azerbaijan because of the independent foreign policy course the
latter pursues. Moscow is accused of plotting provocations against
Azerbaijan by establishing the Union of Azerbaijani Organizations of
Russia. It comprised big Russian businessmen of Azerbaijani origin,
including Aras Agalarov, father of Ilham Aliyev's son-in-law. The
Union is unofficially dubbed the "Billionaire Club", and it is powerful
enough to make Aliyev feel awkward.
"In addition, Moscow increases the tension along the Azerbaijani
borders. It concentrates military troops relocated from Chechnya, in
Dagestan, near Azerbaijani frontiers. Russia is building up its navy in
Caspian Sea," the media report. Well, how come the Caspian is viewed
to be Azerbaijani sea only? The Russian Navy has been here long ago,
when no Azerbaijanis ever existed, but the Caucasian Tatars were there.
"In order to lessen the tension in its ties with Russia, the
Azerbaijani government is trying to make some concessions to Moscow.
Its Oil Foundation decided to place its stocks in Russian banks in
rouble deposits, though the experts say investing in the Russian
currency which faces the risk of devaluation is risky. If Azerbaijan
wanted to make a political move, it'd better invest in the securities
of the Russian companies," the media said.
Speaking about concessions is ridiculous, like saying that Qatar, for
instance, decided to compromise to the U.S. and allowed Washington
to do something. However, the interests linking the U.S. and oil
monarchies of the Gulf are quite different from those between Baku
and Moscow. Here, Moscow is willing to show it is the boss, while
Baku is trying to stand its ground. This is a major failure of Dmitry
Medvedev's rule.
In 2013, Russia may close the markets which mainly employ the
Azerbaijanis. Moscow mayor Sergey Sobyanin says the process will be
finalized by June 1, 2013.
Azerbaijan is going to hold presidential elections next year, and
tens of thousands of Azerbaijanis coming back home may cause serious
problems for the authorities. A significant part of the population,
particularly in provinces, subsists by remittances of Azerbaijani
migrants in Russia. Approximately 3 million Azerbaijanis working in
Russia send money to keep up their families in Azerbaijan.
The total of their remittances is similar to the state budget
allocations for the social sphere, namely the salaries, pensions,
and allowances. Azerbaijan's budget allots about $3 billion to this
area annually. If each of the 3 million Azerbaijanis presumably sends
$1000 home per year, this makes the same figure of $3 bln. This is the
amount transferred by banks only; in fact, the official statistics
does not involve the money sent in cash by friends and relatives
which is also common practice.
Experts believe that restrictions imposed by Russia will mostly affect
Azerbaijan's regional population, further adding to the deterioration
of the social situation in provinces. On the other hand, the return
of migrants will challenge the employment issue as well since the
people will lack jobs. All this happening ahead of the presidential
vote will present another problem for the government and boost the
social and political tension.
Besides, according to Azerbaijani political scientists, the Kremlin
presses Azerbaijan-related international projects as well. The
critics recently targeted the Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline (TANAP)
Baku and Ankara plan to construct to transfer Azerbaijani gas to Europe
through Turkey. Extension of the lease term of Gabala radar station
for another 5-7 years, in line with former financial arrangements,
also aims to press Russia. However, the outdated station is hardly
a valuable asset for Russia; it has long ceased to be an instrument
of pressure or bargaining.
Professor Vladimir Zakharov quotes a very interesting extract from
vesti.az: "How will the "cold war" end? Is it caused by involvement
of Azerbaijan, the last post-Soviet stronghold of independent policy,
into Russia's sphere of influence, ousting of West from the region,
reinforcement of military and political ambitions only, or there are
other reasons as well? Further development of processes will show
this. However, the tension in the Russian-Azerbaijani relations has
other reasons, too.
Russia strives to restore its authority at least in post-Soviet states,
since the Kremlin is yielding its positions in Africa and Asia after
the "Arab spring". Azerbaijan is the only spot where Moscow can still
gain revenge and strike the West, because Azerbaijan is the only
country able to liberate Europe from energy dependence on Russia. This
is the reason the West appreciates Azerbaijan now, and statements
voiced on various levels come to prove this. Azerbaijan's energy
policy also pursues the same trend; various energy projects focus on
supplying the European markets with Caspian hydrocarbon resources.
This is an efficient policy; also, it deprives Russia of the
opportunity to have significant influence on Europe. Control
over the energy sources has been a major reason for conflicts
worldwide. This is the main, and maybe the only reason of tensions
in the Russian-Azerbaijani relations, and there seem to be no end to
this in the near future."
Karine Ter-Sahakian
PanARMENIAN.Net
December 5, 2012
Pro-western urge along with confrontation with Russia did no good to
any of the post-Soviet republics so far.
The relations between Azerbaijan and Russia which have been almost
normal during Dmitry Medvedev's tenure have started to deteriorate;
this is happening quite quickly and, interestingly enough, on Baku's
initiative. If the oil and petrodollars can really turn people's heads,
Ilham Aliyev seems to be playing with fire.
PanARMENIAN.Net - Pro-western urge along with confrontation with
Russia did no good to any of the post-Soviet republics so far;
Georgia, as well as Middle Asian republics present a wonderful example
thereof. Yet Baku has no wish to see the reality, and Azerbaijani
media, the mouthpiece of pro-government politicians, have launched
an active anti-Russian campaign. Interestingly, Baku really believes
that the Kremlin constantly demonstrates toughness and even aggression
to Azerbaijan because of the independent foreign policy course the
latter pursues. Moscow is accused of plotting provocations against
Azerbaijan by establishing the Union of Azerbaijani Organizations of
Russia. It comprised big Russian businessmen of Azerbaijani origin,
including Aras Agalarov, father of Ilham Aliyev's son-in-law. The
Union is unofficially dubbed the "Billionaire Club", and it is powerful
enough to make Aliyev feel awkward.
"In addition, Moscow increases the tension along the Azerbaijani
borders. It concentrates military troops relocated from Chechnya, in
Dagestan, near Azerbaijani frontiers. Russia is building up its navy in
Caspian Sea," the media report. Well, how come the Caspian is viewed
to be Azerbaijani sea only? The Russian Navy has been here long ago,
when no Azerbaijanis ever existed, but the Caucasian Tatars were there.
"In order to lessen the tension in its ties with Russia, the
Azerbaijani government is trying to make some concessions to Moscow.
Its Oil Foundation decided to place its stocks in Russian banks in
rouble deposits, though the experts say investing in the Russian
currency which faces the risk of devaluation is risky. If Azerbaijan
wanted to make a political move, it'd better invest in the securities
of the Russian companies," the media said.
Speaking about concessions is ridiculous, like saying that Qatar, for
instance, decided to compromise to the U.S. and allowed Washington
to do something. However, the interests linking the U.S. and oil
monarchies of the Gulf are quite different from those between Baku
and Moscow. Here, Moscow is willing to show it is the boss, while
Baku is trying to stand its ground. This is a major failure of Dmitry
Medvedev's rule.
In 2013, Russia may close the markets which mainly employ the
Azerbaijanis. Moscow mayor Sergey Sobyanin says the process will be
finalized by June 1, 2013.
Azerbaijan is going to hold presidential elections next year, and
tens of thousands of Azerbaijanis coming back home may cause serious
problems for the authorities. A significant part of the population,
particularly in provinces, subsists by remittances of Azerbaijani
migrants in Russia. Approximately 3 million Azerbaijanis working in
Russia send money to keep up their families in Azerbaijan.
The total of their remittances is similar to the state budget
allocations for the social sphere, namely the salaries, pensions,
and allowances. Azerbaijan's budget allots about $3 billion to this
area annually. If each of the 3 million Azerbaijanis presumably sends
$1000 home per year, this makes the same figure of $3 bln. This is the
amount transferred by banks only; in fact, the official statistics
does not involve the money sent in cash by friends and relatives
which is also common practice.
Experts believe that restrictions imposed by Russia will mostly affect
Azerbaijan's regional population, further adding to the deterioration
of the social situation in provinces. On the other hand, the return
of migrants will challenge the employment issue as well since the
people will lack jobs. All this happening ahead of the presidential
vote will present another problem for the government and boost the
social and political tension.
Besides, according to Azerbaijani political scientists, the Kremlin
presses Azerbaijan-related international projects as well. The
critics recently targeted the Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline (TANAP)
Baku and Ankara plan to construct to transfer Azerbaijani gas to Europe
through Turkey. Extension of the lease term of Gabala radar station
for another 5-7 years, in line with former financial arrangements,
also aims to press Russia. However, the outdated station is hardly
a valuable asset for Russia; it has long ceased to be an instrument
of pressure or bargaining.
Professor Vladimir Zakharov quotes a very interesting extract from
vesti.az: "How will the "cold war" end? Is it caused by involvement
of Azerbaijan, the last post-Soviet stronghold of independent policy,
into Russia's sphere of influence, ousting of West from the region,
reinforcement of military and political ambitions only, or there are
other reasons as well? Further development of processes will show
this. However, the tension in the Russian-Azerbaijani relations has
other reasons, too.
Russia strives to restore its authority at least in post-Soviet states,
since the Kremlin is yielding its positions in Africa and Asia after
the "Arab spring". Azerbaijan is the only spot where Moscow can still
gain revenge and strike the West, because Azerbaijan is the only
country able to liberate Europe from energy dependence on Russia. This
is the reason the West appreciates Azerbaijan now, and statements
voiced on various levels come to prove this. Azerbaijan's energy
policy also pursues the same trend; various energy projects focus on
supplying the European markets with Caspian hydrocarbon resources.
This is an efficient policy; also, it deprives Russia of the
opportunity to have significant influence on Europe. Control
over the energy sources has been a major reason for conflicts
worldwide. This is the main, and maybe the only reason of tensions
in the Russian-Azerbaijani relations, and there seem to be no end to
this in the near future."