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AZERBAIJAN MAINTAINS MILITARY BUDGET EXPANSION IN 2013
by Lilit Gevorgyan
Global Insight
December 3, 2012
On 30 November, Azerbaijan's parliament endorsed the government's
proposal to increase the 2013 military budget by 0.9% from 2012. The
Azeri armed forces and defence establishment will gain a hefty
USD1.9 billion under the new bill. The 2013 state budget projects
a AZN656-million (USD835-million) deficit, according to Today.az.,
corresponding to around 1.1% of projected GDP. In particular, state
budget revenues will total AZN19.154 billion, or 34.2% of GP, while
spending is targeted at 35.2% of GDP, at AZN19.810 billion.
The figures imply growth of 12.4% from the 2012 target for revenues,
and an increase of 12.1% for spending. Azerbaijan's economy remains
heavily dependent on its oil and gas exports and is expected to
underperform only slightly compared to this year. The Azerbaijani
military and defence budget has been expanding in the past five
years as part of President Ilham Aliyev's drive to overhaul the armed
forces. In terms of military spending, in real terms Azerbaijan is a
regional leader compared to Georgia, which has slated USD414 million
for next year in its USD5.2-billion budget, while Armenia has allocated
USD455 million. Azerbaijan entered into a conflict with the breakaway
region of Nagorno-Karabakh in 1988 when the latter decided to unify
with Armenia. The subsequent Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, which
lasted until 1994, claimed at least 30,000 lives. The fragile ceasefire
is still holding although cross-border shootings and instances of
incursions have increased in the past five years, also claiming
civilian lives. Azerbaijan lost the war but peace talks have not yet
brought a final resolution of the disagreement over Nagorno-Karabakh's
status. Until 2007, Azerbaijan and its ethnic kin Turkey were hoping
that the economic blockade imposed on Armenia since the early 1990s
would force it to agree to a peace deal favouring Azerbaijan. But in
the past six years, bolstered by its energy-export-generated income,
Azerbaijan has been investing heavily in its military. This has been
accompanied by increased militaristic rhetoric by Aliyev, who is
threatening to resolve the conflict with a new war.
Significance: Azerbaijan's military spending serves not only defence
purposes, but is also a tactical move by Baku to intimidate the
mainly ethnic Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh entity and force it under
its control. Both Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia are aware that they
cannot match Azerbaijani spending. Instead they emphasise the quality
of military preparedness, as well as maximising the geographical
advantages endowed upon the defensive positions that Armenian forces
currently hold. The peace talks are currently at a stalemate and,
with Azerbaijan's continued strong military spending, the likelihood
of a new military conflict is rising, at least in the medium term.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
by Lilit Gevorgyan
Global Insight
December 3, 2012
On 30 November, Azerbaijan's parliament endorsed the government's
proposal to increase the 2013 military budget by 0.9% from 2012. The
Azeri armed forces and defence establishment will gain a hefty
USD1.9 billion under the new bill. The 2013 state budget projects
a AZN656-million (USD835-million) deficit, according to Today.az.,
corresponding to around 1.1% of projected GDP. In particular, state
budget revenues will total AZN19.154 billion, or 34.2% of GP, while
spending is targeted at 35.2% of GDP, at AZN19.810 billion.
The figures imply growth of 12.4% from the 2012 target for revenues,
and an increase of 12.1% for spending. Azerbaijan's economy remains
heavily dependent on its oil and gas exports and is expected to
underperform only slightly compared to this year. The Azerbaijani
military and defence budget has been expanding in the past five
years as part of President Ilham Aliyev's drive to overhaul the armed
forces. In terms of military spending, in real terms Azerbaijan is a
regional leader compared to Georgia, which has slated USD414 million
for next year in its USD5.2-billion budget, while Armenia has allocated
USD455 million. Azerbaijan entered into a conflict with the breakaway
region of Nagorno-Karabakh in 1988 when the latter decided to unify
with Armenia. The subsequent Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, which
lasted until 1994, claimed at least 30,000 lives. The fragile ceasefire
is still holding although cross-border shootings and instances of
incursions have increased in the past five years, also claiming
civilian lives. Azerbaijan lost the war but peace talks have not yet
brought a final resolution of the disagreement over Nagorno-Karabakh's
status. Until 2007, Azerbaijan and its ethnic kin Turkey were hoping
that the economic blockade imposed on Armenia since the early 1990s
would force it to agree to a peace deal favouring Azerbaijan. But in
the past six years, bolstered by its energy-export-generated income,
Azerbaijan has been investing heavily in its military. This has been
accompanied by increased militaristic rhetoric by Aliyev, who is
threatening to resolve the conflict with a new war.
Significance: Azerbaijan's military spending serves not only defence
purposes, but is also a tactical move by Baku to intimidate the
mainly ethnic Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh entity and force it under
its control. Both Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia are aware that they
cannot match Azerbaijani spending. Instead they emphasise the quality
of military preparedness, as well as maximising the geographical
advantages endowed upon the defensive positions that Armenian forces
currently hold. The peace talks are currently at a stalemate and,
with Azerbaijan's continued strong military spending, the likelihood
of a new military conflict is rising, at least in the medium term.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress