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PERSUASION
Aksam
Dec 4 2012
Turkey
Column by Husnu Mahalli
[Translated from Turkish]
Everything you have read or heard about Russia's leader Putin's visit
to Turkey all have one thing in common: Syria. Syria was the most
important topic of the talks between Putin and Prime Minister Erdogan
because according to Ankara, were it not for Russia Al-Asad would
have gone long ago. Moscow for its part is saying, "If it were not for
Ankara's meddling the Syria problem would have been fixed long ago."
Those two sentences sum up not only any possible Putin-Erdogan tension
but also both countries' regional and international policies in that
as far as both countries are concerned Syria is the key to a new
international order. So, Syria is not to be dismissed. How, you ask?
First of all, let us look at it from Prime Minister Erdogan's
perspective:
Prime Minister Erdogan found support in an important country like
Egypt because of the Arab Spring. He knows that he will not be able to
advance his regional projects if the Muslim Brothers in Syria, or at
least a government that includes them, do not come to power in Syria.
This is because no regional plan ever works in this part of the world
without Syria, for a variety of reasons. Perhaps this is why Prime
Minister Erdogan is coming down so hard to Al-Asad and giving the
Syrian opposition all manner of support. As long as Al-Asad remains
in power Prime Minister Erdogan's plans for Turkey and the region
are largely held back. To be even more blunt, as long as Al-Asad
stays in power none of Anakra's new strategic allies Egypt, Saudi
Arabia and Qatar's plans for Turkey will stick, and these countries
plans, along with the United States, to oppose the "Shi'i Crescent"
will fall into the water. This is because unless and until Al-Asad
is gone Hizballah in Lebanon will stay. Unless and until Al-Asad is
gone the Shi'i government in Iraq will grow in strength while Iran
will gain an ever stronger foothold in the region. The Kurd issue is
an even more complex story.
Putin's 10-Year Plan
So, where do Putin and Russia stand?
When pro-Western and Islamist governments came to power in Tunisia,
Egypt and Libya, Russia lost considerable ground in the Mediterranean
and also lost all its ports of call outside Syria. It now better
understands the West's natural gas game. The US-backed EU countries
stand to gain natural gas from Libya, Egypt, Palestine, Israel, Cyprus
and also Syria and Lebanon should Al-Asad fall, and their first order
of business will be to try and break Russia's natural gas monopoly.
Russia is famous for its Vladimirs and Putin is right now working on
regional and international schemes via Syria. This is because Putin
is going to remain in power for the next 10 years. These 10 years are
important not only for his country but also for international policy.
This Putin knows all too well what challenges his country would face
should Al-Asad fall and the Islamists come to power in Damascus. He
knows that US-backed Islamists will be a problem for Russia's policies
in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Former KGB, Putin remembers
very well the Green Generation Project that played a role in the
collapse of the Soviet Union. He thinks that the West along with the
Islamists might be able to stir up the millions of Muslims living
in the Russian Federation. Especially in Chechnya. Meanwhile in the
Caucasus, Russia's pro-Armenia policy is at odds with the West's plans
to seize Azerbaijan. It would not be good for Russia for Al-Asad to
fall and then for Iran to get involved.
You can add as much detail as you want to these assertions. In the
end, Russia is still a super power and considers what is best for
its own interests when thinking about Syria. The AKP [Justice and
Development Party] government in Turkey for its part is trying to take
on a regional and international role that will strengthen its domestic
policy position by taking advantage of the situation resulting from
the Arab Spring. Let us see who will be able to persuade whom and
in return for wh at. The real question is what might happen should
nobody be persuaded.
[Translated from Turkish]
From: A. Papazian
Aksam
Dec 4 2012
Turkey
Column by Husnu Mahalli
[Translated from Turkish]
Everything you have read or heard about Russia's leader Putin's visit
to Turkey all have one thing in common: Syria. Syria was the most
important topic of the talks between Putin and Prime Minister Erdogan
because according to Ankara, were it not for Russia Al-Asad would
have gone long ago. Moscow for its part is saying, "If it were not for
Ankara's meddling the Syria problem would have been fixed long ago."
Those two sentences sum up not only any possible Putin-Erdogan tension
but also both countries' regional and international policies in that
as far as both countries are concerned Syria is the key to a new
international order. So, Syria is not to be dismissed. How, you ask?
First of all, let us look at it from Prime Minister Erdogan's
perspective:
Prime Minister Erdogan found support in an important country like
Egypt because of the Arab Spring. He knows that he will not be able to
advance his regional projects if the Muslim Brothers in Syria, or at
least a government that includes them, do not come to power in Syria.
This is because no regional plan ever works in this part of the world
without Syria, for a variety of reasons. Perhaps this is why Prime
Minister Erdogan is coming down so hard to Al-Asad and giving the
Syrian opposition all manner of support. As long as Al-Asad remains
in power Prime Minister Erdogan's plans for Turkey and the region
are largely held back. To be even more blunt, as long as Al-Asad
stays in power none of Anakra's new strategic allies Egypt, Saudi
Arabia and Qatar's plans for Turkey will stick, and these countries
plans, along with the United States, to oppose the "Shi'i Crescent"
will fall into the water. This is because unless and until Al-Asad
is gone Hizballah in Lebanon will stay. Unless and until Al-Asad is
gone the Shi'i government in Iraq will grow in strength while Iran
will gain an ever stronger foothold in the region. The Kurd issue is
an even more complex story.
Putin's 10-Year Plan
So, where do Putin and Russia stand?
When pro-Western and Islamist governments came to power in Tunisia,
Egypt and Libya, Russia lost considerable ground in the Mediterranean
and also lost all its ports of call outside Syria. It now better
understands the West's natural gas game. The US-backed EU countries
stand to gain natural gas from Libya, Egypt, Palestine, Israel, Cyprus
and also Syria and Lebanon should Al-Asad fall, and their first order
of business will be to try and break Russia's natural gas monopoly.
Russia is famous for its Vladimirs and Putin is right now working on
regional and international schemes via Syria. This is because Putin
is going to remain in power for the next 10 years. These 10 years are
important not only for his country but also for international policy.
This Putin knows all too well what challenges his country would face
should Al-Asad fall and the Islamists come to power in Damascus. He
knows that US-backed Islamists will be a problem for Russia's policies
in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Former KGB, Putin remembers
very well the Green Generation Project that played a role in the
collapse of the Soviet Union. He thinks that the West along with the
Islamists might be able to stir up the millions of Muslims living
in the Russian Federation. Especially in Chechnya. Meanwhile in the
Caucasus, Russia's pro-Armenia policy is at odds with the West's plans
to seize Azerbaijan. It would not be good for Russia for Al-Asad to
fall and then for Iran to get involved.
You can add as much detail as you want to these assertions. In the
end, Russia is still a super power and considers what is best for
its own interests when thinking about Syria. The AKP [Justice and
Development Party] government in Turkey for its part is trying to take
on a regional and international role that will strengthen its domestic
policy position by taking advantage of the situation resulting from
the Arab Spring. Let us see who will be able to persuade whom and
in return for wh at. The real question is what might happen should
nobody be persuaded.
[Translated from Turkish]
From: A. Papazian