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WAR IN SYRIA: PROBABLE SCENARIOS
http://www.noravank.am/eng/articles/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=6769
04.12.2012
Gagik Harutyunyan
Executive Director of "Noravank" Foundation
Military and political processes going on in the Middle East and
especially in Syria in the context of "Arab spring" are mostly
discussed in the Armenian media from the point of view of the security
of the Armenian communities. Of course this issue is the most topical
today, and the security of the communities is one of the crucial
goals of our national security. In this connection we state that
unlike 2003 when after the occupation of Iraq by the U.S. troops
the local Armenian community in fact broke up, today Armenia tends
to help the Armenians from Syria, who were up against the wall, to
the best of its ability - about 5000 compatriots left for Armenia;
they were provided with necessary conditions as far as possible,
schooling for the children was organized.
At the same time processes in Syria influence the security of
Armenia either. Sometimes the necessary attention is not paid to this
circumstance, which is partially conditioned by the policy conducted
by some media. Such broadcasting channels as CNN, Euronews, BBC,
RBC and others, as a rule, present the situation unilaterally; they
characterize the "Arab spring" as the revolutionary events conditioned
by excluxively domestic political circumstances. Particularly,
difficult situation in Syria is presented as a simple struggle
between governmental forces (which are accused of violence in regard
to the civilian population) and opposition which is "fighting for
the democracy". Meanwhile, not only regional but also much bigger
geopolitical actors, which tend to implement their strategic goals,
are involved in the developments proceeding in the country. Thus,
it can be stated that apparent local war in Syria in reality is a
flash point of a global confrontation.
Reasons for the war
The structure of today's Middle East, according to the geopolitical
architects who formed it, among other issues should serve one main
purpose - there should be no centers of state and poitical will in
the region which can jeopardize the political or economic interests of
the U.S. or its ally Israel1. It should be stated that this programme
is consistenly being implemented which is particularly proved by the
precendents of Iraq and Libya, where maximum two months were needed
to overthrow the existing regimes. However, the main oppositioners
to this programme carried out in the region - Iran and Syria2,
despite the sanctions imposed against the first one and factual
war declared agaist Syria, have preserved their independence and
national and state structure typical for them for about 2 years. Of
course, this situation is not only a result of the will, resources
and systemtized policy of the authorities and societies of these
states. Here the crucial point is that in this conflict Iran and
Syria are supported by the geopolitical heavyweights - Russia and
China. It can be stated that for the first time after the Cold
war systematized opposition is offered to the West. Of course it
is early days to speak about global West-East confrontation, but
in the Syrian war in case of intensification of current tendencies
possibility of such scenario appears. In this context it should not
be even excluded that Chinese-Japanese disagreement on disputable
islands is preliminarily developed action which aim is to restrain
China creating regional problems and to deflect attention of the
super-power from the Middle East3. It is obvious that deterioration
of the Chinese-Japanese relations is very topical: in particular it
is suffice to remember that several years ago the idea of creation
of the Asian NATO, which had to include, besides these two powers,
both Koreas either. But let's get back to the current developments.
Parties to a conflict
Descritopin and analysis of the parties involved in the military
encoutners in Syria, their military and political reasons, confessional
and ethnic factors are a subjec to a bigger study. On this assumption
we shall try to present the realities briefly, taking as a ground
today's information sources.
The so-called Syrian free army (SFA), which is positioned by the media
as the representatives of opposition, mainly cosists of hirelings from
Afghanistan, Libya and other Arab countries and even Azerbaijan, part
of whom are the members of radical Islmist terrorist organizations.
Anyway, according to the assessment of numerous foreing experts and
Syrians, the Syrian citizens are the minority in this army4. The SFA
which comprises such ill-assorted masses is naturally far from being
integrated organization and has no central command. The same can be
said in regard to the political structure of the Syrian opposition -
Syrian National Assembly. At the same time decentralization is some
kind of advantage for the hirelings, because this makes their actions
even more unexpected. In addition, the radical Islamists fighting with
the SFA commit suicides; it is known that it is almost impossible to
fight effectively this type of terrorism particularly in the Syrian
conditions.
The number of rebels according to different sources varies from 30 to
70 thousand. They are funded and supplied with arms mainly by Wahhabi
tandem - Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The hirelings receive intelligence,
mitary and other support also from the special services of NATO member
countries (particularly from U.S., Great Britain, Turkey and France).
Anti-governmental forces receive especially big support from Turkey
where most of the hirelings took military training before being sent
to Syria. Turkish military factually participate in combat actions in
Syria and not only in the form of reconnaissance flights and shellings
of the Syrian territory; it is suffice to mention that about 12
thousand hirelings in Syria were managed by Turkish officers5. There
is information confirmed by Turkish sources that Turkish general and
about 30 military advisers were captured in Syria6.
Some analysts tend to believe that Turkey can arrange larg-scale
invasion in Syria and this opinion was substantiated by the decision
of Turkish majlis to initiate military actions against this country.
But this measure is connected with many international, domestic
and, taking into consideration good qualification of the Syrian
army, military difficulties. Currently implemented "strategy of
exhaustion" is much more efficient than simple invasion. At the same
time large-scale Turkish attack on Syria cannot be fully excluded: it
is possible in the context of U.S.-NATO collective military actions7.
However we will additionally refer to this issue.
The Syrian army (according to pre-war data its number was 320 thousand)
fighting against the SFA is not acting alone either.
According to numerous sources Iran renders military and material
support to Bashar Assad's regime. In accordance with some mass media,
soldiers of special forces of that country (very often the Army of the
Guardians of Islamic Revolution is mentioned) are directly involved in
the combat actions. Iran is a party of the conflict in the Syrian war.
There is also unconfirmed reports concerning the presence of the
Russian military advisors in Syria. Among the countries which supply
milltary equipments and ammunition to Syria are Russia, partially
China; North Korea, with which Assad's regime traditionally maintans
ties, is also mentioned. Syria is traditionally supported by some
Arab countries (especially by Shiite authorities of Iraq) and Shiite
organizations either. On the assumption of current situation Kurdish
alignments has stirred up. In Syria where about 2 million Kurds live
they demand autonomy but at the same time they figth against the SFA8.
Taking into consideration the fact that in Turkey Kurd guerillas
are fighting regular Turkish army, it should be accepted that at
least at this stage Kurds support Syrian governmental forces. It
is characterictic that in every single situation the governmental
forces overrule the hirelings. It allows some experts to believe that
Syrian army can emerge victorious in this confrontation9. In gerenal,
however, current situation consistently contaminate Syrian state and
social-economic system; the normal mode of life in all the districts of
the country has been shuttered; there are dozens of thousands victims
and the number of the refugees goes beyond 200 thousand. Under the
current circumstances it is very difficult to make any predictions,
but let us try to consider schematically several scenarios of possible
developments.
Possible developments and scenarios
According to the information flows, Iran and Russia make attempts to
find ways of stopping confrontation through different negotiation
formats; even Assad's resignation and creation of transitional
government are considered. But the West and regional actors which
believe that time is on their side do no respond to these attempts and
find unacceptable controled authorities in Syria10. Let us mention
that from purely military point of view a kind of dynamic balance
has been created in Syria: the governmental forces using air force,
armor and artillery manage to supress the enemy in definite districts,
but at the same time new groups of hirelings armed with the newest
anti-aircraft and anti-tank arms penetrate into the country; these
groups expand the geography and targets of the attacks. It seems if
current tendencies preserve and new unexpected circumstances do not
arouse, such war may last for quite a long time.
But alongside with "hot war" a "cold war" is conducted against Syria
and Iran - in the form of economic sanctions and information and
psychological influence (and "Al Jazeera" TV channel is very active in
this regard) which purpose is to shatter the state and social-economic
grounds of these states. In consequence Iran and Syria face serious
problems especially in economic area, but it is too early to speak
about collapse of rather flexible Iranian economy. As a result a
situation has been created which has lasted for 2 years and which
needs to be solved.
The aforementioned intervention of NATO forces headed by the
U.S. in Syria can be considered as one of the scenarios of possible
developements. Such policy can solve only military goals: after missile
and air strikes the governmental forces probably would lose the edge
and the hirelings can possibly capture Damascus with the support of the
Turkish army. Let us also mention that such a scenario which evades UN
decisions will be considered as a direct challenge to China and Russia
and can cause military and political rapproachment of these powers in
the face of "common enemy". This is very undesirable but nevertheless
possible strategic prospect. Today direct response of Iran, which will
take intervention as the beginning of an inevitable war against itself,
is more essential. It can cause the situation when struggle against
new authorities in Damascus might be conducted by the same means by
which current hirelings fight against Assad and the combat actions
would be delocalized and would be spread over the entire region. It
is not excluded that in cosequence of bilateral actions situation
(if, e.g. Iran closes Strait of Hormuz through which 30-40% of wold
oil is transported) will be formed when US/Israel - Iran war becomes
inevitable. Such a scenario may carry disasterous consequences for
the region (and not only region) becuase theoretically it can not be
excluded that nuclear strikes will be delivered during the war and
they can be carried out not only by Israel; it is quite possible that
Iran has already created limited amount of nuclear weapons within
the framework of its nuclear programme.
Anyway such a senario is very serious challenge for Armenia and not
only in the context of the aftermaths of the nuclear war11. Current
war, in case of some unfavourable developments for Syria and Iran,
may distort the balance of regional powers and bring to the Turkish
hegemony in the region. Undoubtedly strengthening of Turkey which
takes adamant stance on NKR issue and blokades Armenian borders will
make its attitude towards Armenia even tougher. It is remarkable that
even today some Turkish figures come forward with a proposal to create
Islamic NATO and Islamic peacekeeping forces, thus resuscietating the
programmes of former prime-minister Erbakan - ideological father of
Erdogan12. The nuclear programmes of this country13, which will be a
serious challenge first of all for Israel, Greece and Armenia. deserve
special scrutiny.
It is obvious that such a scenario is "unattractive" not only for
the regional countries but also for today's main global actor
- United States. The created situation forces seeking for the
"peaceful" options and scenarios. In this context the article by
Kenneth Walz14 published in authoritative Foreign Affairs magazine
should be taken into consideration; its main idea is that if Iran
possesses nuclear weapons necessary for deterrence, it would promote
stability in the region. Similar ideas are expressed in the article
by the president of the Council on Foreign Relations Richard Haass
published by the same Foreign Affairs magazine15. Let us mention
that previously the possibility of "peaceful" scenarios on Iran were
offered in the froecests of the head of "STRATFOR" analytical center
George Freedman16. In the context of all the aforementioned it is
not a mere chance that publications in the American press appeared
stating that direct talks between the U.S. and Iran were held17. This
information was refuted by both parties but this refutation was not
that convincing, which allowed assuming (judging by the information
from other sources either) that nevertheless there has been some
attempts to find some common grounds and meet habitat.
Of course, the negotiations are not a guarantee of success yet; over
the same period the U.S. and Israel initiated joint anti-aricraft and
missisle defence drills and military circles in Iran made rather harsh
and uncompromising statements, which, nevertheless, can be considered
as consolidation of their positions at the negotiations (in case if
the latter exist). Let us also mention that the improvement of the the
relations between Iran and U.S./Israel is not a suffice condition for
peaceful resolution of the Syrian war. Under the current conditions
Turkye, Saudi Arabia and Quatar do not always tend to obey perusations
of the United States to stop combat actions (which in this particular
case does not contradict the U.S. interests).
1 Ô³Õ¡Õ£Õ"Õ¯ Õ~@Õ¡O~@Õ¸O~BÕ©ÕµÕ¸O~BÕ¶ÕµÕ¡Õ¶, Õ~FÕ¸O~@
Õ~DÕ¥O~@Õ±Õ¡Õ¾Õ¸O~@ Ô±O~@O~GÕ¥Õ¬O~D, Õ"O~@Õ¸Õ²Õ¸O~BÕ©ÕµÕ¸O~BÕ¶Õ¶Õ¥O~@
O~G Õ°Õ¥Õ¼Õ¡Õ¶Õ¯Õ¡O~@Õ¶Õ¥O~@, Ô³Õ¬Õ¸Õ¢Õ¸O~BÕ½, #3(24), Õ§Õ" 3, 2012O~I
2 In the analytical community an opinion is spread that if the Iranian
issue resolved, the issue of disintegration of Turkey and Saudi
Arabia may actualize. The future of Turkey where the Kurdish issue
became topical and the so-called "identity crisis" is deepening in
the society, is discussed rather actively. In addition the political
relations between supporters of current Islamic and former secular
models of development of the country strained. Some analysts also
mention that current aggressive foreign policy of Turkey based on
Erdogan's ideology of neo-Ottomanism, also contains some risks. (see,
O...O~@Õ"Õ¶Õ¡Õ¯, Ð"евоÑ~@г Ð~\иÑ~@азÑ~Oн, Ð~Xмам
не Ñ~AдеÑ~@жаÐ" азаÑ~@Ñ~Bа, ÐкÑ~AпеÑ~@Ñ~B, #30-31
(813), Ñ~A. 69, 2012, Ð~^Ð"Ñ~Lга Ð'Ð"аÑ~Aова, Ð"евоÑ~@г
Ð~\иÑ~@азÑ~Oн, Ð'оÐ"Ñ~LÑ~HаÑ~O оÑ~Hибка ТÑ~CÑ~@Ñ~Fии,
ÐкÑ~AпеÑ~@Ñ~B, #42 (824), Ñ~A. 18, 2012.
3 An attempt is made to aggravate the relations between China
and Vietnam because of Yongxing island (See, for example,
http://topwar.ru/16899-kitay-obyavil-spornyy-ostrov-svoim-gorodom.html).
It is remarkable that in Vietnam the nationalist moods over this
issue strained by means of virtual social networks.
4 Ð~ZÑ~@аÑ~AÑ~Lко Ð'., Ð"од веÑ~AнÑ~K, Ð~\., Ð~_оÑ~AÑ~BÑ~Cм,
2011.
5 Ð~^ деÑ~AÑ~BабиÐ"изаÑ~Fии обÑ~AÑ~Bановки
в СиÑ~@ии, Ð-аÑ~@Ñ~Cбежное Ð'оенное
Ð~^бозÑ~@ение, #8, Ñ~A. 99, 2012.
6 СиÑ~@иÑ~O: Ñ...Ñ~@оника Ñ~AобÑ~KÑ~Bий,
Ð-аÑ~@Ñ~Cбежное Ð'оенное Ð~^бозÑ~@ение, #9,
Ñ~A. 103, 2012.
7 See, for example, The killing fields, The Economist,
v.405, #8807, p. 15, 2012, СеÑ~@гей Ð'аÐ"маÑ~Aов,
Ð~_одгоÑ~Bовка инÑ~BеÑ~@венÑ~Fии в СиÑ~@иÑ~N,
http://rusrand.ru/pubpoll/pubpoll_506.html.
8СиÑ~@ийÑ~Aкие кÑ~CÑ~@дÑ~K обÑ~JединиÐ"иÑ~AÑ~L
дÐ"Ñ~O боÑ~@Ñ~LбÑ~K Ñ~A повÑ~AÑ~BанÑ~Fами,
http://lenta.ru/news/2012/11/23/join/
9 See, for example, Ð' Ñ~AиÑ~@ийÑ~Aком конÑ~DÐ"икÑ~Bе
побеждаеÑ~B Ð'аÑ~HаÑ~@ Ð~PÑ~Aад - евÑ~@опейÑ~Aкий
дипÐ"омаÑ~B, http://www.regnum.ru/news/1583305html.
10 See, for example Ð"Ð"ава Ð~\Ð~XÐ" ТÑ~CÑ~@Ñ~Fии:
"Ð~YеменÑ~Aкий Ñ~AÑ~FенаÑ~@ий" дÐ"Ñ~O
СиÑ~@ии боÐ"ее невозможен.
http://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/20121021050011.shtml.
11 For the review of such a scenario see: Ð"агик
Ð~PÑ~@Ñ~CÑ~BÑ~NнÑ~Oн, РаÑ~Aпад Ñ~AиÑ~AÑ~BемÑ~K и
Ñ~DоÑ~@миÑ~@ование бÑ~CдÑ~CÑ~Iего, Ñ~A. 178,
Ð~UÑ~@еван, 2011.
12 Ð' ТÑ~CÑ~@Ñ~Fии звÑ~CÑ~GаÑ~B пÑ~@изÑ~KвÑ~K
Ñ~AоздаÑ~BÑ~L Â"Ð~XÑ~AÐ"амÑ~Aкое Ð~]Ð~PТÐ~^Â" и
Â"Ð~XÑ~AÐ"амÑ~Aкие миÑ~@оÑ~BвоÑ~@Ñ~GеÑ~Aкие Ñ~AиÐ"Ñ~KÂ",
http://www.regnum.ru/news/1551857.html.
13 Ð"агик Ð~PÑ~@Ñ~CÑ~BÑ~NнÑ~Oн, РаÑ~Aпад Ñ~AиÑ~AÑ~BемÑ~K
и Ñ~DоÑ~@миÑ~@ование бÑ~CдÑ~CÑ~Iего, Ñ~A. 247,
Ð~UÑ~@еван, 2011,
Ô³Õ¡Õ£Õ"Õ¯ Õ~@Õ¡O~@Õ¸O~BÕ©ÕµÕ¸O~BÕ¶ÕµÕ¡Õ¶,
Ô¹Õ¸O~BO~@O~DÕ¡Õ¯Õ¡Õ¶ Õ´Õ"Õ"Õ¸O~BÕ¯Õ¡ÕµÕ"Õ¶ Õ½ÕºÕ¡Õ¼Õ¶Õ¡Õ¬Õ"O~DÕ¨,
http://noravank.am/arm/articles/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=6449, Ô±O~@Õ¡
Õ~DÕ¡O~@Õ"Õ¡Õ¶ÕµÕ¡Õ¶, Õ~DÕ"Õ"Õ¸O~BÕ¯Õ¡ÕµÕ"Õ¶ Ô¹Õ¸O~BO~@O~DÕ"Õ¡,
http://noravank.am/arm/articles/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=6470.
14 Ð~ZеннеÑ~B УоÐ"Ñ~BÑ~F, Ð~_оÑ~GемÑ~C Ð~XÑ~@ан доÐ"жен
поÐ"Ñ~CÑ~GиÑ~BÑ~L бомбÑ~C (Ñ~OдеÑ~@нÑ~Kй баÐ"анÑ~A
ознаÑ~GаÐ" бÑ~K Ñ~AÑ~BабиÐ"Ñ~LноÑ~AÑ~BÑ~L), РоÑ~AÑ~AиÑ~O
в гÐ"обаÐ"Ñ~Lной поÐ"иÑ~Bике, Ñ~B. 10, #4, Ñ~A.
138, 2012, Foreign Affairs, # 4, 2012.
15Richard N. Haass, Time to Test Iran,
http://www.cfr.org/iran/time-test-iran/p29300?cid=nlc-public-the_world_this_week-link16-20121019#.
16 Ð"жоÑ~@дж ФÑ~@идман, СÐ"едÑ~CÑ~NÑ~Iие 100 Ð"еÑ~B,
Ð~XÐ" Â"Ð~ZоммеÑ~@Ñ~AанÑ~BÂ", Â"ÐÐ~ZСÐ~\Ð~^Â" 2010,
Ð"жоÑ~@дж ФÑ~@идман, СÐ"едÑ~CÑ~NÑ~Iие 10 Ð"еÑ~B ,
Ð~XÐ" Â"Ð~ZоммеÑ~@Ñ~AанÑ~BÂ", Â"ÐÐ~ZСÐ~\Ð~^Â" 2011.
17 http://www.gazeta.ru/politics/news/2012/10/21/n_2580417.shtml
"Globus" analytical journal, #11, 2012
Return Another materials of author THE EUROPEAN UNION: NEW
TENDENCIES[03.07.2012] TURKISH NUCLEAR THREAT[26.04.2012] NEW
MIDDLE EAST: REALITY AND PROSPECTS [15.03.2012] NEW STATEHOOD AND
NEW CHALLENGES[20.09.2011] REFLECTING THE EVENTS OF THE AFRICAN
CONTINENT IN THE MIRROR OF THE GREAT GAME[18.05.2011] RUSSIAN-ARMENIAN
COOPERATION AND TURKISH FACTOR[16.05.2011] ON FORECASTS[03.03.2011]
INTERNET STRUCTURES IN THE CONTEXT OF POST-DEMOCRACY AND ISSUES
OF INFORMATION SECURITY[23.11.2010] ON NKR AND REGIONAL ISSUES
[29.07.2010] STRATEGY OF DEVELOPMENT[21.05.2010]
From: Baghdasarian
http://www.noravank.am/eng/articles/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=6769
04.12.2012
Gagik Harutyunyan
Executive Director of "Noravank" Foundation
Military and political processes going on in the Middle East and
especially in Syria in the context of "Arab spring" are mostly
discussed in the Armenian media from the point of view of the security
of the Armenian communities. Of course this issue is the most topical
today, and the security of the communities is one of the crucial
goals of our national security. In this connection we state that
unlike 2003 when after the occupation of Iraq by the U.S. troops
the local Armenian community in fact broke up, today Armenia tends
to help the Armenians from Syria, who were up against the wall, to
the best of its ability - about 5000 compatriots left for Armenia;
they were provided with necessary conditions as far as possible,
schooling for the children was organized.
At the same time processes in Syria influence the security of
Armenia either. Sometimes the necessary attention is not paid to this
circumstance, which is partially conditioned by the policy conducted
by some media. Such broadcasting channels as CNN, Euronews, BBC,
RBC and others, as a rule, present the situation unilaterally; they
characterize the "Arab spring" as the revolutionary events conditioned
by excluxively domestic political circumstances. Particularly,
difficult situation in Syria is presented as a simple struggle
between governmental forces (which are accused of violence in regard
to the civilian population) and opposition which is "fighting for
the democracy". Meanwhile, not only regional but also much bigger
geopolitical actors, which tend to implement their strategic goals,
are involved in the developments proceeding in the country. Thus,
it can be stated that apparent local war in Syria in reality is a
flash point of a global confrontation.
Reasons for the war
The structure of today's Middle East, according to the geopolitical
architects who formed it, among other issues should serve one main
purpose - there should be no centers of state and poitical will in
the region which can jeopardize the political or economic interests of
the U.S. or its ally Israel1. It should be stated that this programme
is consistenly being implemented which is particularly proved by the
precendents of Iraq and Libya, where maximum two months were needed
to overthrow the existing regimes. However, the main oppositioners
to this programme carried out in the region - Iran and Syria2,
despite the sanctions imposed against the first one and factual
war declared agaist Syria, have preserved their independence and
national and state structure typical for them for about 2 years. Of
course, this situation is not only a result of the will, resources
and systemtized policy of the authorities and societies of these
states. Here the crucial point is that in this conflict Iran and
Syria are supported by the geopolitical heavyweights - Russia and
China. It can be stated that for the first time after the Cold
war systematized opposition is offered to the West. Of course it
is early days to speak about global West-East confrontation, but
in the Syrian war in case of intensification of current tendencies
possibility of such scenario appears. In this context it should not
be even excluded that Chinese-Japanese disagreement on disputable
islands is preliminarily developed action which aim is to restrain
China creating regional problems and to deflect attention of the
super-power from the Middle East3. It is obvious that deterioration
of the Chinese-Japanese relations is very topical: in particular it
is suffice to remember that several years ago the idea of creation
of the Asian NATO, which had to include, besides these two powers,
both Koreas either. But let's get back to the current developments.
Parties to a conflict
Descritopin and analysis of the parties involved in the military
encoutners in Syria, their military and political reasons, confessional
and ethnic factors are a subjec to a bigger study. On this assumption
we shall try to present the realities briefly, taking as a ground
today's information sources.
The so-called Syrian free army (SFA), which is positioned by the media
as the representatives of opposition, mainly cosists of hirelings from
Afghanistan, Libya and other Arab countries and even Azerbaijan, part
of whom are the members of radical Islmist terrorist organizations.
Anyway, according to the assessment of numerous foreing experts and
Syrians, the Syrian citizens are the minority in this army4. The SFA
which comprises such ill-assorted masses is naturally far from being
integrated organization and has no central command. The same can be
said in regard to the political structure of the Syrian opposition -
Syrian National Assembly. At the same time decentralization is some
kind of advantage for the hirelings, because this makes their actions
even more unexpected. In addition, the radical Islamists fighting with
the SFA commit suicides; it is known that it is almost impossible to
fight effectively this type of terrorism particularly in the Syrian
conditions.
The number of rebels according to different sources varies from 30 to
70 thousand. They are funded and supplied with arms mainly by Wahhabi
tandem - Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The hirelings receive intelligence,
mitary and other support also from the special services of NATO member
countries (particularly from U.S., Great Britain, Turkey and France).
Anti-governmental forces receive especially big support from Turkey
where most of the hirelings took military training before being sent
to Syria. Turkish military factually participate in combat actions in
Syria and not only in the form of reconnaissance flights and shellings
of the Syrian territory; it is suffice to mention that about 12
thousand hirelings in Syria were managed by Turkish officers5. There
is information confirmed by Turkish sources that Turkish general and
about 30 military advisers were captured in Syria6.
Some analysts tend to believe that Turkey can arrange larg-scale
invasion in Syria and this opinion was substantiated by the decision
of Turkish majlis to initiate military actions against this country.
But this measure is connected with many international, domestic
and, taking into consideration good qualification of the Syrian
army, military difficulties. Currently implemented "strategy of
exhaustion" is much more efficient than simple invasion. At the same
time large-scale Turkish attack on Syria cannot be fully excluded: it
is possible in the context of U.S.-NATO collective military actions7.
However we will additionally refer to this issue.
The Syrian army (according to pre-war data its number was 320 thousand)
fighting against the SFA is not acting alone either.
According to numerous sources Iran renders military and material
support to Bashar Assad's regime. In accordance with some mass media,
soldiers of special forces of that country (very often the Army of the
Guardians of Islamic Revolution is mentioned) are directly involved in
the combat actions. Iran is a party of the conflict in the Syrian war.
There is also unconfirmed reports concerning the presence of the
Russian military advisors in Syria. Among the countries which supply
milltary equipments and ammunition to Syria are Russia, partially
China; North Korea, with which Assad's regime traditionally maintans
ties, is also mentioned. Syria is traditionally supported by some
Arab countries (especially by Shiite authorities of Iraq) and Shiite
organizations either. On the assumption of current situation Kurdish
alignments has stirred up. In Syria where about 2 million Kurds live
they demand autonomy but at the same time they figth against the SFA8.
Taking into consideration the fact that in Turkey Kurd guerillas
are fighting regular Turkish army, it should be accepted that at
least at this stage Kurds support Syrian governmental forces. It
is characterictic that in every single situation the governmental
forces overrule the hirelings. It allows some experts to believe that
Syrian army can emerge victorious in this confrontation9. In gerenal,
however, current situation consistently contaminate Syrian state and
social-economic system; the normal mode of life in all the districts of
the country has been shuttered; there are dozens of thousands victims
and the number of the refugees goes beyond 200 thousand. Under the
current circumstances it is very difficult to make any predictions,
but let us try to consider schematically several scenarios of possible
developments.
Possible developments and scenarios
According to the information flows, Iran and Russia make attempts to
find ways of stopping confrontation through different negotiation
formats; even Assad's resignation and creation of transitional
government are considered. But the West and regional actors which
believe that time is on their side do no respond to these attempts and
find unacceptable controled authorities in Syria10. Let us mention
that from purely military point of view a kind of dynamic balance
has been created in Syria: the governmental forces using air force,
armor and artillery manage to supress the enemy in definite districts,
but at the same time new groups of hirelings armed with the newest
anti-aircraft and anti-tank arms penetrate into the country; these
groups expand the geography and targets of the attacks. It seems if
current tendencies preserve and new unexpected circumstances do not
arouse, such war may last for quite a long time.
But alongside with "hot war" a "cold war" is conducted against Syria
and Iran - in the form of economic sanctions and information and
psychological influence (and "Al Jazeera" TV channel is very active in
this regard) which purpose is to shatter the state and social-economic
grounds of these states. In consequence Iran and Syria face serious
problems especially in economic area, but it is too early to speak
about collapse of rather flexible Iranian economy. As a result a
situation has been created which has lasted for 2 years and which
needs to be solved.
The aforementioned intervention of NATO forces headed by the
U.S. in Syria can be considered as one of the scenarios of possible
developements. Such policy can solve only military goals: after missile
and air strikes the governmental forces probably would lose the edge
and the hirelings can possibly capture Damascus with the support of the
Turkish army. Let us also mention that such a scenario which evades UN
decisions will be considered as a direct challenge to China and Russia
and can cause military and political rapproachment of these powers in
the face of "common enemy". This is very undesirable but nevertheless
possible strategic prospect. Today direct response of Iran, which will
take intervention as the beginning of an inevitable war against itself,
is more essential. It can cause the situation when struggle against
new authorities in Damascus might be conducted by the same means by
which current hirelings fight against Assad and the combat actions
would be delocalized and would be spread over the entire region. It
is not excluded that in cosequence of bilateral actions situation
(if, e.g. Iran closes Strait of Hormuz through which 30-40% of wold
oil is transported) will be formed when US/Israel - Iran war becomes
inevitable. Such a scenario may carry disasterous consequences for
the region (and not only region) becuase theoretically it can not be
excluded that nuclear strikes will be delivered during the war and
they can be carried out not only by Israel; it is quite possible that
Iran has already created limited amount of nuclear weapons within
the framework of its nuclear programme.
Anyway such a senario is very serious challenge for Armenia and not
only in the context of the aftermaths of the nuclear war11. Current
war, in case of some unfavourable developments for Syria and Iran,
may distort the balance of regional powers and bring to the Turkish
hegemony in the region. Undoubtedly strengthening of Turkey which
takes adamant stance on NKR issue and blokades Armenian borders will
make its attitude towards Armenia even tougher. It is remarkable that
even today some Turkish figures come forward with a proposal to create
Islamic NATO and Islamic peacekeeping forces, thus resuscietating the
programmes of former prime-minister Erbakan - ideological father of
Erdogan12. The nuclear programmes of this country13, which will be a
serious challenge first of all for Israel, Greece and Armenia. deserve
special scrutiny.
It is obvious that such a scenario is "unattractive" not only for
the regional countries but also for today's main global actor
- United States. The created situation forces seeking for the
"peaceful" options and scenarios. In this context the article by
Kenneth Walz14 published in authoritative Foreign Affairs magazine
should be taken into consideration; its main idea is that if Iran
possesses nuclear weapons necessary for deterrence, it would promote
stability in the region. Similar ideas are expressed in the article
by the president of the Council on Foreign Relations Richard Haass
published by the same Foreign Affairs magazine15. Let us mention
that previously the possibility of "peaceful" scenarios on Iran were
offered in the froecests of the head of "STRATFOR" analytical center
George Freedman16. In the context of all the aforementioned it is
not a mere chance that publications in the American press appeared
stating that direct talks between the U.S. and Iran were held17. This
information was refuted by both parties but this refutation was not
that convincing, which allowed assuming (judging by the information
from other sources either) that nevertheless there has been some
attempts to find some common grounds and meet habitat.
Of course, the negotiations are not a guarantee of success yet; over
the same period the U.S. and Israel initiated joint anti-aricraft and
missisle defence drills and military circles in Iran made rather harsh
and uncompromising statements, which, nevertheless, can be considered
as consolidation of their positions at the negotiations (in case if
the latter exist). Let us also mention that the improvement of the the
relations between Iran and U.S./Israel is not a suffice condition for
peaceful resolution of the Syrian war. Under the current conditions
Turkye, Saudi Arabia and Quatar do not always tend to obey perusations
of the United States to stop combat actions (which in this particular
case does not contradict the U.S. interests).
1 Ô³Õ¡Õ£Õ"Õ¯ Õ~@Õ¡O~@Õ¸O~BÕ©ÕµÕ¸O~BÕ¶ÕµÕ¡Õ¶, Õ~FÕ¸O~@
Õ~DÕ¥O~@Õ±Õ¡Õ¾Õ¸O~@ Ô±O~@O~GÕ¥Õ¬O~D, Õ"O~@Õ¸Õ²Õ¸O~BÕ©ÕµÕ¸O~BÕ¶Õ¶Õ¥O~@
O~G Õ°Õ¥Õ¼Õ¡Õ¶Õ¯Õ¡O~@Õ¶Õ¥O~@, Ô³Õ¬Õ¸Õ¢Õ¸O~BÕ½, #3(24), Õ§Õ" 3, 2012O~I
2 In the analytical community an opinion is spread that if the Iranian
issue resolved, the issue of disintegration of Turkey and Saudi
Arabia may actualize. The future of Turkey where the Kurdish issue
became topical and the so-called "identity crisis" is deepening in
the society, is discussed rather actively. In addition the political
relations between supporters of current Islamic and former secular
models of development of the country strained. Some analysts also
mention that current aggressive foreign policy of Turkey based on
Erdogan's ideology of neo-Ottomanism, also contains some risks. (see,
O...O~@Õ"Õ¶Õ¡Õ¯, Ð"евоÑ~@г Ð~\иÑ~@азÑ~Oн, Ð~Xмам
не Ñ~AдеÑ~@жаÐ" азаÑ~@Ñ~Bа, ÐкÑ~AпеÑ~@Ñ~B, #30-31
(813), Ñ~A. 69, 2012, Ð~^Ð"Ñ~Lга Ð'Ð"аÑ~Aова, Ð"евоÑ~@г
Ð~\иÑ~@азÑ~Oн, Ð'оÐ"Ñ~LÑ~HаÑ~O оÑ~Hибка ТÑ~CÑ~@Ñ~Fии,
ÐкÑ~AпеÑ~@Ñ~B, #42 (824), Ñ~A. 18, 2012.
3 An attempt is made to aggravate the relations between China
and Vietnam because of Yongxing island (See, for example,
http://topwar.ru/16899-kitay-obyavil-spornyy-ostrov-svoim-gorodom.html).
It is remarkable that in Vietnam the nationalist moods over this
issue strained by means of virtual social networks.
4 Ð~ZÑ~@аÑ~AÑ~Lко Ð'., Ð"од веÑ~AнÑ~K, Ð~\., Ð~_оÑ~AÑ~BÑ~Cм,
2011.
5 Ð~^ деÑ~AÑ~BабиÐ"изаÑ~Fии обÑ~AÑ~Bановки
в СиÑ~@ии, Ð-аÑ~@Ñ~Cбежное Ð'оенное
Ð~^бозÑ~@ение, #8, Ñ~A. 99, 2012.
6 СиÑ~@иÑ~O: Ñ...Ñ~@оника Ñ~AобÑ~KÑ~Bий,
Ð-аÑ~@Ñ~Cбежное Ð'оенное Ð~^бозÑ~@ение, #9,
Ñ~A. 103, 2012.
7 See, for example, The killing fields, The Economist,
v.405, #8807, p. 15, 2012, СеÑ~@гей Ð'аÐ"маÑ~Aов,
Ð~_одгоÑ~Bовка инÑ~BеÑ~@венÑ~Fии в СиÑ~@иÑ~N,
http://rusrand.ru/pubpoll/pubpoll_506.html.
8СиÑ~@ийÑ~Aкие кÑ~CÑ~@дÑ~K обÑ~JединиÐ"иÑ~AÑ~L
дÐ"Ñ~O боÑ~@Ñ~LбÑ~K Ñ~A повÑ~AÑ~BанÑ~Fами,
http://lenta.ru/news/2012/11/23/join/
9 See, for example, Ð' Ñ~AиÑ~@ийÑ~Aком конÑ~DÐ"икÑ~Bе
побеждаеÑ~B Ð'аÑ~HаÑ~@ Ð~PÑ~Aад - евÑ~@опейÑ~Aкий
дипÐ"омаÑ~B, http://www.regnum.ru/news/1583305html.
10 See, for example Ð"Ð"ава Ð~\Ð~XÐ" ТÑ~CÑ~@Ñ~Fии:
"Ð~YеменÑ~Aкий Ñ~AÑ~FенаÑ~@ий" дÐ"Ñ~O
СиÑ~@ии боÐ"ее невозможен.
http://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/20121021050011.shtml.
11 For the review of such a scenario see: Ð"агик
Ð~PÑ~@Ñ~CÑ~BÑ~NнÑ~Oн, РаÑ~Aпад Ñ~AиÑ~AÑ~BемÑ~K и
Ñ~DоÑ~@миÑ~@ование бÑ~CдÑ~CÑ~Iего, Ñ~A. 178,
Ð~UÑ~@еван, 2011.
12 Ð' ТÑ~CÑ~@Ñ~Fии звÑ~CÑ~GаÑ~B пÑ~@изÑ~KвÑ~K
Ñ~AоздаÑ~BÑ~L Â"Ð~XÑ~AÐ"амÑ~Aкое Ð~]Ð~PТÐ~^Â" и
Â"Ð~XÑ~AÐ"амÑ~Aкие миÑ~@оÑ~BвоÑ~@Ñ~GеÑ~Aкие Ñ~AиÐ"Ñ~KÂ",
http://www.regnum.ru/news/1551857.html.
13 Ð"агик Ð~PÑ~@Ñ~CÑ~BÑ~NнÑ~Oн, РаÑ~Aпад Ñ~AиÑ~AÑ~BемÑ~K
и Ñ~DоÑ~@миÑ~@ование бÑ~CдÑ~CÑ~Iего, Ñ~A. 247,
Ð~UÑ~@еван, 2011,
Ô³Õ¡Õ£Õ"Õ¯ Õ~@Õ¡O~@Õ¸O~BÕ©ÕµÕ¸O~BÕ¶ÕµÕ¡Õ¶,
Ô¹Õ¸O~BO~@O~DÕ¡Õ¯Õ¡Õ¶ Õ´Õ"Õ"Õ¸O~BÕ¯Õ¡ÕµÕ"Õ¶ Õ½ÕºÕ¡Õ¼Õ¶Õ¡Õ¬Õ"O~DÕ¨,
http://noravank.am/arm/articles/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=6449, Ô±O~@Õ¡
Õ~DÕ¡O~@Õ"Õ¡Õ¶ÕµÕ¡Õ¶, Õ~DÕ"Õ"Õ¸O~BÕ¯Õ¡ÕµÕ"Õ¶ Ô¹Õ¸O~BO~@O~DÕ"Õ¡,
http://noravank.am/arm/articles/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=6470.
14 Ð~ZеннеÑ~B УоÐ"Ñ~BÑ~F, Ð~_оÑ~GемÑ~C Ð~XÑ~@ан доÐ"жен
поÐ"Ñ~CÑ~GиÑ~BÑ~L бомбÑ~C (Ñ~OдеÑ~@нÑ~Kй баÐ"анÑ~A
ознаÑ~GаÐ" бÑ~K Ñ~AÑ~BабиÐ"Ñ~LноÑ~AÑ~BÑ~L), РоÑ~AÑ~AиÑ~O
в гÐ"обаÐ"Ñ~Lной поÐ"иÑ~Bике, Ñ~B. 10, #4, Ñ~A.
138, 2012, Foreign Affairs, # 4, 2012.
15Richard N. Haass, Time to Test Iran,
http://www.cfr.org/iran/time-test-iran/p29300?cid=nlc-public-the_world_this_week-link16-20121019#.
16 Ð"жоÑ~@дж ФÑ~@идман, СÐ"едÑ~CÑ~NÑ~Iие 100 Ð"еÑ~B,
Ð~XÐ" Â"Ð~ZоммеÑ~@Ñ~AанÑ~BÂ", Â"ÐÐ~ZСÐ~\Ð~^Â" 2010,
Ð"жоÑ~@дж ФÑ~@идман, СÐ"едÑ~CÑ~NÑ~Iие 10 Ð"еÑ~B ,
Ð~XÐ" Â"Ð~ZоммеÑ~@Ñ~AанÑ~BÂ", Â"ÐÐ~ZСÐ~\Ð~^Â" 2011.
17 http://www.gazeta.ru/politics/news/2012/10/21/n_2580417.shtml
"Globus" analytical journal, #11, 2012
Return Another materials of author THE EUROPEAN UNION: NEW
TENDENCIES[03.07.2012] TURKISH NUCLEAR THREAT[26.04.2012] NEW
MIDDLE EAST: REALITY AND PROSPECTS [15.03.2012] NEW STATEHOOD AND
NEW CHALLENGES[20.09.2011] REFLECTING THE EVENTS OF THE AFRICAN
CONTINENT IN THE MIRROR OF THE GREAT GAME[18.05.2011] RUSSIAN-ARMENIAN
COOPERATION AND TURKISH FACTOR[16.05.2011] ON FORECASTS[03.03.2011]
INTERNET STRUCTURES IN THE CONTEXT OF POST-DEMOCRACY AND ISSUES
OF INFORMATION SECURITY[23.11.2010] ON NKR AND REGIONAL ISSUES
[29.07.2010] STRATEGY OF DEVELOPMENT[21.05.2010]
From: Baghdasarian