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Arif Yunusov: The problem with Gabala radar station is determined by
the deteriorating personal relations of Vladimir Putin and Ilham
Aliyev
Interview of Arif Yunusov, Head of the Conflict Studies and Migration
Department of the Institute for Peace and Democracy (Baku), with
ArmInfo News Agency
by David Stepanyan
arminfo
Thursday, December 13, 11:12
Until very recently, Russia was interested in exploitation of the
Gabala radar station and was negotiating with Azerbaijan to prolong
the lease period. However, the situation has deteriorated and the
Russian Defense Ministry has announced that it is leaving Gabala. What
is the reason of Moscow's decision, in addition to Baku's demand that
the leasing price should be increased 40 times?
Built in 1985, the Gabala radar station was once one of the most
important elements of the Soviet missile defense system. Today, after
thirty years, the Gabala radar station has become outdated politically
and technically and can no longer be perceived as a factor of Russia's
political presence in Azerbaijan and in the region. The problem is now
determined by the deteriorating interstate and even personal relations
of Vladimir Putin and Ilham Aliyev. It has been reflected also in the
Wikileaks cables. Irrespective of the two president's efforts to show
that the scandalous publication was not serious, it was evident that
the relations of those politicians and leaders are not good. As long
as Dmitry Medvedev was on the post of the Russian President, no one
thought that there would be any problems with the Gabala radar
station. The Azerbaijani authorities then believed that Putin would
not come to power again. However, as soon as they in Baku realized
that Putin is returning, even pursues a goal of establishing a
Eurasian Union with a single customs zone, the clouds began to gather
over the Gabala station. However, it was just Azerbaijan's response
when Baku demanded such a high price for leasing the Gabala radar
station to avoid any official refusal from extension of the lease
term. Baku just wanted to show that everything depends on the economic
factor, allegedly they failed to agree on a leasing price. In reality,
the situation with the Gabala radar station should be studied from the
viewpoint of the deteriorating interstate relations.
Very often Azerbaijan speaks of the pressure exerted on Baku by Moscow
concerning the formation of Azerbaijan's energy policy. Do you agree
with such statements?
Undoubtedly, Russia imposes certain pressure upon Azerbaijan not only
in the matter of formation of the energy policy. Actually, they mean
changing of the foreign policy vector of Azerbaijan. It is not
accidental that the authorities of Russia made such a step like
setting up of a new political organization in the person of the known
activists of the Azerbaijani community of Russia, the so called "Club
of billionaires", as well as started the campaign on activation of the
activity of several organizations of national minorities of
Azerbaijan, the activists of which live in Russia. These are the links
of one and the same chain. And after Ilham Aliyev refused to attend
the CIS summit in Ashkhabad and to adopt a decision on the Gabala
radar station, it has become clear that Russia will undoubtedly take
new measures against Azerbaijan in the near future. These measures
will most likely be taken against Azerbaijani migrants in Russia via
artificial creation of problems in the economic sphere, just the same
way as the ban of Moldavian and Georgian wine delivery to Russia, and
even more activation of the national minorities in Azerbaijan.
Perhaps, other events will also take place. Let's not forget that the
coming year is the year of the presidential election in Azerbaijan.
Last week SOCAR President Rovnag Abdullayev said in Istanbul that the
TANAP construction was put off till 2014. On 15 Sept 2012 Abdullayev
said in Baku that the construction would be launched before the end of
2013. Is this decision connected with the 16 Oct 2013 presidential
election in Azerbaijan?
I am sure of that. This decision has obviously been taken in order to
wait for a calmer period.
Europe has started a new "parade of sovereignties': Scotland,
Catalonia, and Flanders. Do you think the new European reality may
introduce some changes in the resolution of conflicts in the
post-Soviet territory, in particular, in the Karabakh peace process?
Europe has really started a new "parade of sovereignties". But this
parade covered those European countries where borders do not play any
special part any more, where the law really plays its part, where the
rights of the people are a priority and where many other things differ
very much from the situation in our region. A financial rather than an
ethnic issue lies in the basis of this sovereignty. For this reason, I
am confident that this parade will not really end. Anyway, the South
Caucasus is very far away from Europe. We are not yet Europeans and
will hardly become Europeans in the near future. We have got our own
level and the attitude to our region will differ. For this reason, the
European events will not affect the Karabakh conflict settlement. More
truly, everything will be in its current position in the Karabakh
settlement, "neither war nor peace".
According to the public opinion polls in Armenia, the Karabakh problem
is number three or four for the Armenian public. What significance
does the Karabakh conflict have for the Azerbaijani public?
The Karabakh conflict is of secondary importance for Armenians because
they consider it a de-facto settled issue, which must be settled
de-jure through diplomatic efforts. As for Azerbaijanis, they do not
think so, as they are a defeated party and the issue is a priority for
them. If the situation on the front line grows tense or any collisions
occur during the negotiations, Armenians will immediately forget all
their problems and focus on the Karabakh conflict again. Therefore, it
would be right to say that the issue is still acute for both of the
peoples.
Azerbaijan has some problems with freedom of speech but realizes at
the same time that the entry into the international arena is
impossible without a good image of the country. What effect do you
think the pardon, glorification and reward of Ramil Safarov, who had
been sentenced to life in prison by the Hungarian Court for murdering
an Armenian officer, had on Azerbaijan's image?
Undoubtedly, the effect was negative. However, I'd not like to
exaggerate that factor, because in the succession of time everything
will remain in the past. Many factors, and first of all, the interests
of state and ruling elites, often play a crucial role in the politics.
Therefore, we see such paradoxes when democratic western states are in
friendly relations with countries with open dictatorship and little
care for their image.
After four years in jail for slander, tax dodging, calls for terrorism
and incitement of ethnic hatred the journalist Eynulla Fatullayev was
pardoned by the Azeri President following a verdict by the European
Court of Human Rights. This case has become an example of effective
international pressure on the Azeri authorities. Can one say that the
other human rights activists are not yet in jail exclusively due to
that pressure?
Yes, the release of journalist Eynulla Fatullayev was the result of
international pressure, but that pressure is not general and is much
weaker than before. That's why instead of one released journalist the
Azeri authorities are arresting many more. Nobody can guarantee that
there will be no new arrests of journalists and human rights defenders
before the upcoming presidential election in Azerbaijan. Practice
shows that the number of such arrests during election years is much
higher.
From: Baghdasarian
the deteriorating personal relations of Vladimir Putin and Ilham
Aliyev
Interview of Arif Yunusov, Head of the Conflict Studies and Migration
Department of the Institute for Peace and Democracy (Baku), with
ArmInfo News Agency
by David Stepanyan
arminfo
Thursday, December 13, 11:12
Until very recently, Russia was interested in exploitation of the
Gabala radar station and was negotiating with Azerbaijan to prolong
the lease period. However, the situation has deteriorated and the
Russian Defense Ministry has announced that it is leaving Gabala. What
is the reason of Moscow's decision, in addition to Baku's demand that
the leasing price should be increased 40 times?
Built in 1985, the Gabala radar station was once one of the most
important elements of the Soviet missile defense system. Today, after
thirty years, the Gabala radar station has become outdated politically
and technically and can no longer be perceived as a factor of Russia's
political presence in Azerbaijan and in the region. The problem is now
determined by the deteriorating interstate and even personal relations
of Vladimir Putin and Ilham Aliyev. It has been reflected also in the
Wikileaks cables. Irrespective of the two president's efforts to show
that the scandalous publication was not serious, it was evident that
the relations of those politicians and leaders are not good. As long
as Dmitry Medvedev was on the post of the Russian President, no one
thought that there would be any problems with the Gabala radar
station. The Azerbaijani authorities then believed that Putin would
not come to power again. However, as soon as they in Baku realized
that Putin is returning, even pursues a goal of establishing a
Eurasian Union with a single customs zone, the clouds began to gather
over the Gabala station. However, it was just Azerbaijan's response
when Baku demanded such a high price for leasing the Gabala radar
station to avoid any official refusal from extension of the lease
term. Baku just wanted to show that everything depends on the economic
factor, allegedly they failed to agree on a leasing price. In reality,
the situation with the Gabala radar station should be studied from the
viewpoint of the deteriorating interstate relations.
Very often Azerbaijan speaks of the pressure exerted on Baku by Moscow
concerning the formation of Azerbaijan's energy policy. Do you agree
with such statements?
Undoubtedly, Russia imposes certain pressure upon Azerbaijan not only
in the matter of formation of the energy policy. Actually, they mean
changing of the foreign policy vector of Azerbaijan. It is not
accidental that the authorities of Russia made such a step like
setting up of a new political organization in the person of the known
activists of the Azerbaijani community of Russia, the so called "Club
of billionaires", as well as started the campaign on activation of the
activity of several organizations of national minorities of
Azerbaijan, the activists of which live in Russia. These are the links
of one and the same chain. And after Ilham Aliyev refused to attend
the CIS summit in Ashkhabad and to adopt a decision on the Gabala
radar station, it has become clear that Russia will undoubtedly take
new measures against Azerbaijan in the near future. These measures
will most likely be taken against Azerbaijani migrants in Russia via
artificial creation of problems in the economic sphere, just the same
way as the ban of Moldavian and Georgian wine delivery to Russia, and
even more activation of the national minorities in Azerbaijan.
Perhaps, other events will also take place. Let's not forget that the
coming year is the year of the presidential election in Azerbaijan.
Last week SOCAR President Rovnag Abdullayev said in Istanbul that the
TANAP construction was put off till 2014. On 15 Sept 2012 Abdullayev
said in Baku that the construction would be launched before the end of
2013. Is this decision connected with the 16 Oct 2013 presidential
election in Azerbaijan?
I am sure of that. This decision has obviously been taken in order to
wait for a calmer period.
Europe has started a new "parade of sovereignties': Scotland,
Catalonia, and Flanders. Do you think the new European reality may
introduce some changes in the resolution of conflicts in the
post-Soviet territory, in particular, in the Karabakh peace process?
Europe has really started a new "parade of sovereignties". But this
parade covered those European countries where borders do not play any
special part any more, where the law really plays its part, where the
rights of the people are a priority and where many other things differ
very much from the situation in our region. A financial rather than an
ethnic issue lies in the basis of this sovereignty. For this reason, I
am confident that this parade will not really end. Anyway, the South
Caucasus is very far away from Europe. We are not yet Europeans and
will hardly become Europeans in the near future. We have got our own
level and the attitude to our region will differ. For this reason, the
European events will not affect the Karabakh conflict settlement. More
truly, everything will be in its current position in the Karabakh
settlement, "neither war nor peace".
According to the public opinion polls in Armenia, the Karabakh problem
is number three or four for the Armenian public. What significance
does the Karabakh conflict have for the Azerbaijani public?
The Karabakh conflict is of secondary importance for Armenians because
they consider it a de-facto settled issue, which must be settled
de-jure through diplomatic efforts. As for Azerbaijanis, they do not
think so, as they are a defeated party and the issue is a priority for
them. If the situation on the front line grows tense or any collisions
occur during the negotiations, Armenians will immediately forget all
their problems and focus on the Karabakh conflict again. Therefore, it
would be right to say that the issue is still acute for both of the
peoples.
Azerbaijan has some problems with freedom of speech but realizes at
the same time that the entry into the international arena is
impossible without a good image of the country. What effect do you
think the pardon, glorification and reward of Ramil Safarov, who had
been sentenced to life in prison by the Hungarian Court for murdering
an Armenian officer, had on Azerbaijan's image?
Undoubtedly, the effect was negative. However, I'd not like to
exaggerate that factor, because in the succession of time everything
will remain in the past. Many factors, and first of all, the interests
of state and ruling elites, often play a crucial role in the politics.
Therefore, we see such paradoxes when democratic western states are in
friendly relations with countries with open dictatorship and little
care for their image.
After four years in jail for slander, tax dodging, calls for terrorism
and incitement of ethnic hatred the journalist Eynulla Fatullayev was
pardoned by the Azeri President following a verdict by the European
Court of Human Rights. This case has become an example of effective
international pressure on the Azeri authorities. Can one say that the
other human rights activists are not yet in jail exclusively due to
that pressure?
Yes, the release of journalist Eynulla Fatullayev was the result of
international pressure, but that pressure is not general and is much
weaker than before. That's why instead of one released journalist the
Azeri authorities are arresting many more. Nobody can guarantee that
there will be no new arrests of journalists and human rights defenders
before the upcoming presidential election in Azerbaijan. Practice
shows that the number of such arrests during election years is much
higher.
From: Baghdasarian