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DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
December 12, 2012 Wednesday
RUSSIA IS PREPARING FOR WAR?
by Pavel Olkhovikov
Source: Profil, No. 46, December 10-16, 2012, p. 6
ACCORDING TO THE KREMLIN, THE QUANTITY OF EXTERNAL THREATS TO RUSSIA
IS GROWING; In the next few years the government will spend 20
trillion rubles on grandiose rearming of the army. Military expenses
of Russia are growing rapidly. Last year, they grew by 9.3% in
year-on-year terms to $72 billion. Thus we already outran the UK and
France according to the volume of expenses for the first time in the
recent history. According to the speed of growth of military expenses
Russia outran China and India, leaving apart the US.
In the next few years the government will spend 20 trillion rubles on
grandiose rearming of the army. Reforms in the army have been
condemned in the army a lot but nobody doubts one fact: military
expenses of Russia are growing rapidly. Last year, they grew by 9.3%
in year-on-year terms to $72 billion. Thus we already outran the UK
and France according to the volume of expenses for the first time in
the recent history. According to the speed of growth of military
expenses Russia outran China and India, leaving apart the US. Even the
people who do not have very much economic knowledge have already
noticed that against the background of the economic uncertainty the
huge state defense order worth 20 trillion rubles until 2020 is not
reduced. On what will this colossal amount of money be spent?
The Strategic Missile Forces traditionally remain the main guarantor
of national security of Russia. Several important events happened in
this field lately. First, Russia started implementing the plans to
create a new 100-ton silo-based intercontinental ballistic missile
with advanced means for penetration through the enemy antimissile
defense announced a long time ago. This most important decision showed
that the command decided not to give up heavy intercontinental
ballistic missiles. The advanced missile should replace Soviet missile
UR-100N UTTKH Stiletto.
Second, in December of 2011 and in 2012 the Defense Ministry in the
person of Strategic Missile Forces Commander Sergei Karakaev and
official representative of the press service of the Defense Ministry
for the Strategic Missile Forces Vadim Koval frequently spoke about
possible continuation of research and development related to designing
of combat railway missile system of new generation. The combat railway
missile systems with Scalpel missile in service with the Strategic
Missile Forces of the Soviet Union represented one of the main trump
cards of the USSR In confrontation with the US. Hints at possible
creation of the advanced combat railway missile system most likely
represent a signal to the American partners who are stubbornly
pursuing their line in arrangement of the antimissile defense system
in Europe.
Along with this, the rearming will touch not only the Strategic
Missile Forces. Now we see beginning of revival of the Russian Navy.
The state defense order allocates 4.5 trillion rubles for its
renovation! More than 40 surface ships and submarines have already
been laid down and are being built at shipyards. But if we get
acquainted with the composition of armament of these new combat units
in detail there will appear an involuntary question about the concept
of use of the Navy in the near future. Thus, the newest frigates of
Admiral Gorshkov type and small missile ships of Buyan-M type being
built for the Black Sea Fleet and Caspian Flotilla have identical
strike missile armament. This is missile system Kalibr with the range
of killing of ground targets bigger than 2,000 kilometers. This
actually means transition from tactical and tactical theater systems
to strategic ones. Along with this, the command is going to arm even
ships of small displacement with such systems.
Hence, there appears a natural question: what for? Theoretically,
capabilities of such weapons allow, for example, controlling even the
area of the Persian Gulf from the Black and Caspian seas. It is
obvious that military presence in the Mediterranean basin keeps
playing an important role in plans of the Defense Ministry. Along with
this, command of the Navy decided to replace obsolete ships of the
Black Sea Fleet in the shortest possible time but not with frigates of
Admiral Gorshkov type construction of which was going on with
difficulties but with simpler frigates of project 11356M already put
into production. Three such ships have already been laid down and will
be commissioned with the Navy in the next two years.
A series of six diesel submarines built specifically for the Black Sea
Fleet is written as a separate line. Such serious reinforcement of the
combatant ranks of the submarine forces will allow broadening of,
first of all, antisubmarine capabilities of the group because now
Turkey has 14 submarines in the Black Sea versus one submarine of
Russia.
Besides the big-scale construction of new ships there are also plans
to return to combatant ranks the Soviet ships that have stayed in a
suspended condition for a long time. First of all, they are applicable
to nuclear missile cruiser Admiral Nakhimov and several nuclear
submarines with cruise missiles of project 949 Antey that are in
long-term repair or are mothballed now. At the end of 2011, RIA
Novosti agency reported that Antey would undergo modernization and
would receive the newest strike armament including possibly missile
systems Kalibr and Onyx. It is necessary to pay special attention to
Nakhimov: cruisers of this project are considered the most powerful
strike combat ships in the world already now and we can only guess
which capabilities this ship will have after modernization. First of
all, these combat units will reinforce the Northern Fleet.
Let us go to aviation now. Analysis of the signed and planned
contracts on frontline aviation, first of all, on fighters enables us
to presume that the command wishes to renovate the aviation fleet in
the key directions as soon as possible. Besides orders for advanced
airplanes T-50 (PAK FA) and Su-35S the Defense Ministry has also
signed a contract on purchase of Su-30SM (Russia version of MKI) and
is actively negotiating with RAC MiG on purchase of light airplanes
MiG-35. Even if we bear in mind that the fifth-generation fighter
faces a few years of tests ahead it would be logical to choose Su-35S
focusing all efforts on production of this model. However,
organization of production in big series requires time and airplanes
are necessary already now. At the end of September, mass media voiced
plans of the Defense Ministry to deploy a group of MiG-31 interceptors
on the Novaya Zemlya Island by the end of 2013. This important
decision would allow increasing of the combat stability of the
Northern Fleet that is actually deprived of fighter support now. The
63rd guard aviation regiment with Su-27 fighters was based at
Rogachevo airfield in the 1980s. In 1993, it was disbanded. Thus, the
upcoming relocation should mend a hole in the system of antimissile
defense of this region at least partially. Pavement of the runway and
the light signal equipment was already replaced in Rogachevo and
pilots of one of the units with Su-27 performed several trips to
Novaya Zemlya this year.
If we speak about the Arctic region, we need to mention the flights of
our strategic missile-carrying airplanes Tu-95MS and Tu-160 that have
grown more frequent. Patrolling in northern regions ceased being rare.
The growing activeness of the aviation component of the strategic
nuclear forces of Russia is accompanied with reconstruction of the
network of airfields. The goal is obvious. This is obtaining of as
many runways for dispersing in case of a conflict as possible.
Not a single serious military conflict goes without the use of tanks
now. Russia has the biggest tank fleet in the world. Naturally, it
requires renovation and replacement. A few months ago, it became known
that enterprises of the military industrial complex occupied with
repair of armored vehicles received a big order from the Defense
Ministry for deep modernization of the tanks already being in service,
for instance, T-72. As a result, these tanks will be practically on
par with T-90, the most modern tank of the Russian army now. However,
there appears a quite natural question: why should we spend much money
on modernization of obsolete models if development of new models is
underway? Creation of a new advanced tank was chosen as one of the key
directions for development of the Ground Forces. According to
representatives of the defense industry, work on Armata project is in
full swing and they promise to present prototypes nearly in 2014.
Buildup of the tank fist looks very impressive if we recall that
nearly a half of NATO countries has already given up or is going to
give up heavy armored vehicles. These are not only small countries
like Holland but also the main members of the alliance like UK and
Germany. Whereas with regard to ballistic missiles everything is more
or less understandable (they represent means for deterrence of the US
and its allies), where can such powerful tank groups be needed?
According to authorities of the country, the quantity of external
threats to Russia is growing. At present, it is possible to single out
some potentially dangerous conflict zones. The prospect of deployment
of the American antimissile defense system in Eastern Europe remains
the main source of concern now. Moscow leaders think that it is aimed
exclusively at Russia still. Absence of any progress in negotiations
with the US about antimissile defense already forces the General Staff
to take some response measures of military technological nature, for
instance, to put on combat duty several long-range radars. Besides
this leaders of the country also announced much harsher decisions that
might be made in case of appearance of a real threat for Russian
strategic nuclear forces. In November of 2011, President Dmitry
Medvedev announced, "Russia may deploy modern strike armament systems
that provide for fire killing of the European component of antimissile
defense in the west and in the south of the country. Deployment of
missile system Iskander in the Kaliningrad special district will
become one of such steps."
Nonetheless, not all specialists agree with such formulation of the
issue. One of the leading Russian military experts Ruslan Pukhov
states, 'The topic of the antimissile defense is a far-fetched thing
like the problem of eastward NATO expansion. I consider these threats
postponed and I think that they will come true in the future. By that
time Russia will either get really stronger and will be able to parry
these threats or we will face new 1917 and nothing will be scary for
us then already."
Experts are much more alarmed by possible local conflicts in the
post-Soviet space and in the neighboring countries to the south of the
former borders of the USSR. Situation regarding Libya, Iran and Syria
has shown that Russia weak in the military aspect cannot be an equal
partner of the West in resolving of regional conflicts and this
circumstance obviously irritates the Russian authorities. Moscow is
also concerned about growing strength of Turkey, especially with
regard to the war in Syria.
But it is even not the Middle East that is the main risk zone for
Russia. Potential threats may appear for us much closer, in
Transcaucasia and in Central Asia. Despite the political changes that
have happened in Georgia this country cannot be considered friendly to
us still because it will hardly get reconciled with loss of South
Ossetia and Abkhazia. Confrontation between Armenia and Azerbaijan
continues in Transcaucasia too. Expenses of Baku on defense grow
permanently (in 2013 they will amount to $2 billion or 13% of the
overall budget expenses) and because financial capabilities of
Azerbaijan and Armenia are incomparable the equilibrium in this region
may be broken sooner or later. Along with this, Azerbaijan evidently
does not believe anymore that Moscow will help it to regain the
territories occupied by Armenia and is gradually changing its foreign
policy course looking at the West. The first signal of alarm sounded
in June of 2012 when the Azerbaijani party stated unacceptable terms
of rent of the Gabala radar station for Russia. Although the parties
managed to solve the problem and unpleasant aftertaste remained.
A serious conflict may also appear in Trans-Dniester Republic. In
October, Russian Foreign Ministry in the person of special envoy
Dmitry Gubarev spoke about readiness to recognize Trans-Dniester
Republic should Moldova lose independence and become a part of
Romania. Such a course of events looks quite real in a distant future.
Along with this, the main potential danger comes evidently from
Central Asia. Pukhov states, "The nearest war will be in this or that
form in Central Asia, most likely after withdrawal of the American
forces from Afghanistan." It is also impossible to rule out some
version of the "Central Asian spring" in the form of change of the
regimes and destabilization of the situation in the region.
Summing up, we can say that big-scale rearming of the Russian army
shows that Russia is actively trying to regain status of a great
military power and is ready to allocate huge amounts of money for this
purpose. Along with this, it is possible to single out two vectors of
development fairly clearly. The first vector is strategic and it
implies hidden confrontation with the US still, although this does not
mean an inevitable military conflict between the countries at all.
This is rather a wish of the Russian elite to restore the former
military parity with Americans, although not on the Soviet scale.
The second vector is preparation for possible local wars and,
correspondingly, increase of potential of conventional weapons.
Probability of "small wars" definitely cannot be ruled out. Events of
August of 2008 in South Ossetia confirmed this illustratively. Now
Russia obviously wants to have a possibility to talk to its nearest
neighbors, for example, to the former Soviet republic or Turkey. In
the future it will possibly consider it necessary to interfere into
the conflicts not so far from the Russian borders.
[Translated from Russian]
December 12, 2012 Wednesday
RUSSIA IS PREPARING FOR WAR?
by Pavel Olkhovikov
Source: Profil, No. 46, December 10-16, 2012, p. 6
ACCORDING TO THE KREMLIN, THE QUANTITY OF EXTERNAL THREATS TO RUSSIA
IS GROWING; In the next few years the government will spend 20
trillion rubles on grandiose rearming of the army. Military expenses
of Russia are growing rapidly. Last year, they grew by 9.3% in
year-on-year terms to $72 billion. Thus we already outran the UK and
France according to the volume of expenses for the first time in the
recent history. According to the speed of growth of military expenses
Russia outran China and India, leaving apart the US.
In the next few years the government will spend 20 trillion rubles on
grandiose rearming of the army. Reforms in the army have been
condemned in the army a lot but nobody doubts one fact: military
expenses of Russia are growing rapidly. Last year, they grew by 9.3%
in year-on-year terms to $72 billion. Thus we already outran the UK
and France according to the volume of expenses for the first time in
the recent history. According to the speed of growth of military
expenses Russia outran China and India, leaving apart the US. Even the
people who do not have very much economic knowledge have already
noticed that against the background of the economic uncertainty the
huge state defense order worth 20 trillion rubles until 2020 is not
reduced. On what will this colossal amount of money be spent?
The Strategic Missile Forces traditionally remain the main guarantor
of national security of Russia. Several important events happened in
this field lately. First, Russia started implementing the plans to
create a new 100-ton silo-based intercontinental ballistic missile
with advanced means for penetration through the enemy antimissile
defense announced a long time ago. This most important decision showed
that the command decided not to give up heavy intercontinental
ballistic missiles. The advanced missile should replace Soviet missile
UR-100N UTTKH Stiletto.
Second, in December of 2011 and in 2012 the Defense Ministry in the
person of Strategic Missile Forces Commander Sergei Karakaev and
official representative of the press service of the Defense Ministry
for the Strategic Missile Forces Vadim Koval frequently spoke about
possible continuation of research and development related to designing
of combat railway missile system of new generation. The combat railway
missile systems with Scalpel missile in service with the Strategic
Missile Forces of the Soviet Union represented one of the main trump
cards of the USSR In confrontation with the US. Hints at possible
creation of the advanced combat railway missile system most likely
represent a signal to the American partners who are stubbornly
pursuing their line in arrangement of the antimissile defense system
in Europe.
Along with this, the rearming will touch not only the Strategic
Missile Forces. Now we see beginning of revival of the Russian Navy.
The state defense order allocates 4.5 trillion rubles for its
renovation! More than 40 surface ships and submarines have already
been laid down and are being built at shipyards. But if we get
acquainted with the composition of armament of these new combat units
in detail there will appear an involuntary question about the concept
of use of the Navy in the near future. Thus, the newest frigates of
Admiral Gorshkov type and small missile ships of Buyan-M type being
built for the Black Sea Fleet and Caspian Flotilla have identical
strike missile armament. This is missile system Kalibr with the range
of killing of ground targets bigger than 2,000 kilometers. This
actually means transition from tactical and tactical theater systems
to strategic ones. Along with this, the command is going to arm even
ships of small displacement with such systems.
Hence, there appears a natural question: what for? Theoretically,
capabilities of such weapons allow, for example, controlling even the
area of the Persian Gulf from the Black and Caspian seas. It is
obvious that military presence in the Mediterranean basin keeps
playing an important role in plans of the Defense Ministry. Along with
this, command of the Navy decided to replace obsolete ships of the
Black Sea Fleet in the shortest possible time but not with frigates of
Admiral Gorshkov type construction of which was going on with
difficulties but with simpler frigates of project 11356M already put
into production. Three such ships have already been laid down and will
be commissioned with the Navy in the next two years.
A series of six diesel submarines built specifically for the Black Sea
Fleet is written as a separate line. Such serious reinforcement of the
combatant ranks of the submarine forces will allow broadening of,
first of all, antisubmarine capabilities of the group because now
Turkey has 14 submarines in the Black Sea versus one submarine of
Russia.
Besides the big-scale construction of new ships there are also plans
to return to combatant ranks the Soviet ships that have stayed in a
suspended condition for a long time. First of all, they are applicable
to nuclear missile cruiser Admiral Nakhimov and several nuclear
submarines with cruise missiles of project 949 Antey that are in
long-term repair or are mothballed now. At the end of 2011, RIA
Novosti agency reported that Antey would undergo modernization and
would receive the newest strike armament including possibly missile
systems Kalibr and Onyx. It is necessary to pay special attention to
Nakhimov: cruisers of this project are considered the most powerful
strike combat ships in the world already now and we can only guess
which capabilities this ship will have after modernization. First of
all, these combat units will reinforce the Northern Fleet.
Let us go to aviation now. Analysis of the signed and planned
contracts on frontline aviation, first of all, on fighters enables us
to presume that the command wishes to renovate the aviation fleet in
the key directions as soon as possible. Besides orders for advanced
airplanes T-50 (PAK FA) and Su-35S the Defense Ministry has also
signed a contract on purchase of Su-30SM (Russia version of MKI) and
is actively negotiating with RAC MiG on purchase of light airplanes
MiG-35. Even if we bear in mind that the fifth-generation fighter
faces a few years of tests ahead it would be logical to choose Su-35S
focusing all efforts on production of this model. However,
organization of production in big series requires time and airplanes
are necessary already now. At the end of September, mass media voiced
plans of the Defense Ministry to deploy a group of MiG-31 interceptors
on the Novaya Zemlya Island by the end of 2013. This important
decision would allow increasing of the combat stability of the
Northern Fleet that is actually deprived of fighter support now. The
63rd guard aviation regiment with Su-27 fighters was based at
Rogachevo airfield in the 1980s. In 1993, it was disbanded. Thus, the
upcoming relocation should mend a hole in the system of antimissile
defense of this region at least partially. Pavement of the runway and
the light signal equipment was already replaced in Rogachevo and
pilots of one of the units with Su-27 performed several trips to
Novaya Zemlya this year.
If we speak about the Arctic region, we need to mention the flights of
our strategic missile-carrying airplanes Tu-95MS and Tu-160 that have
grown more frequent. Patrolling in northern regions ceased being rare.
The growing activeness of the aviation component of the strategic
nuclear forces of Russia is accompanied with reconstruction of the
network of airfields. The goal is obvious. This is obtaining of as
many runways for dispersing in case of a conflict as possible.
Not a single serious military conflict goes without the use of tanks
now. Russia has the biggest tank fleet in the world. Naturally, it
requires renovation and replacement. A few months ago, it became known
that enterprises of the military industrial complex occupied with
repair of armored vehicles received a big order from the Defense
Ministry for deep modernization of the tanks already being in service,
for instance, T-72. As a result, these tanks will be practically on
par with T-90, the most modern tank of the Russian army now. However,
there appears a quite natural question: why should we spend much money
on modernization of obsolete models if development of new models is
underway? Creation of a new advanced tank was chosen as one of the key
directions for development of the Ground Forces. According to
representatives of the defense industry, work on Armata project is in
full swing and they promise to present prototypes nearly in 2014.
Buildup of the tank fist looks very impressive if we recall that
nearly a half of NATO countries has already given up or is going to
give up heavy armored vehicles. These are not only small countries
like Holland but also the main members of the alliance like UK and
Germany. Whereas with regard to ballistic missiles everything is more
or less understandable (they represent means for deterrence of the US
and its allies), where can such powerful tank groups be needed?
According to authorities of the country, the quantity of external
threats to Russia is growing. At present, it is possible to single out
some potentially dangerous conflict zones. The prospect of deployment
of the American antimissile defense system in Eastern Europe remains
the main source of concern now. Moscow leaders think that it is aimed
exclusively at Russia still. Absence of any progress in negotiations
with the US about antimissile defense already forces the General Staff
to take some response measures of military technological nature, for
instance, to put on combat duty several long-range radars. Besides
this leaders of the country also announced much harsher decisions that
might be made in case of appearance of a real threat for Russian
strategic nuclear forces. In November of 2011, President Dmitry
Medvedev announced, "Russia may deploy modern strike armament systems
that provide for fire killing of the European component of antimissile
defense in the west and in the south of the country. Deployment of
missile system Iskander in the Kaliningrad special district will
become one of such steps."
Nonetheless, not all specialists agree with such formulation of the
issue. One of the leading Russian military experts Ruslan Pukhov
states, 'The topic of the antimissile defense is a far-fetched thing
like the problem of eastward NATO expansion. I consider these threats
postponed and I think that they will come true in the future. By that
time Russia will either get really stronger and will be able to parry
these threats or we will face new 1917 and nothing will be scary for
us then already."
Experts are much more alarmed by possible local conflicts in the
post-Soviet space and in the neighboring countries to the south of the
former borders of the USSR. Situation regarding Libya, Iran and Syria
has shown that Russia weak in the military aspect cannot be an equal
partner of the West in resolving of regional conflicts and this
circumstance obviously irritates the Russian authorities. Moscow is
also concerned about growing strength of Turkey, especially with
regard to the war in Syria.
But it is even not the Middle East that is the main risk zone for
Russia. Potential threats may appear for us much closer, in
Transcaucasia and in Central Asia. Despite the political changes that
have happened in Georgia this country cannot be considered friendly to
us still because it will hardly get reconciled with loss of South
Ossetia and Abkhazia. Confrontation between Armenia and Azerbaijan
continues in Transcaucasia too. Expenses of Baku on defense grow
permanently (in 2013 they will amount to $2 billion or 13% of the
overall budget expenses) and because financial capabilities of
Azerbaijan and Armenia are incomparable the equilibrium in this region
may be broken sooner or later. Along with this, Azerbaijan evidently
does not believe anymore that Moscow will help it to regain the
territories occupied by Armenia and is gradually changing its foreign
policy course looking at the West. The first signal of alarm sounded
in June of 2012 when the Azerbaijani party stated unacceptable terms
of rent of the Gabala radar station for Russia. Although the parties
managed to solve the problem and unpleasant aftertaste remained.
A serious conflict may also appear in Trans-Dniester Republic. In
October, Russian Foreign Ministry in the person of special envoy
Dmitry Gubarev spoke about readiness to recognize Trans-Dniester
Republic should Moldova lose independence and become a part of
Romania. Such a course of events looks quite real in a distant future.
Along with this, the main potential danger comes evidently from
Central Asia. Pukhov states, "The nearest war will be in this or that
form in Central Asia, most likely after withdrawal of the American
forces from Afghanistan." It is also impossible to rule out some
version of the "Central Asian spring" in the form of change of the
regimes and destabilization of the situation in the region.
Summing up, we can say that big-scale rearming of the Russian army
shows that Russia is actively trying to regain status of a great
military power and is ready to allocate huge amounts of money for this
purpose. Along with this, it is possible to single out two vectors of
development fairly clearly. The first vector is strategic and it
implies hidden confrontation with the US still, although this does not
mean an inevitable military conflict between the countries at all.
This is rather a wish of the Russian elite to restore the former
military parity with Americans, although not on the Soviet scale.
The second vector is preparation for possible local wars and,
correspondingly, increase of potential of conventional weapons.
Probability of "small wars" definitely cannot be ruled out. Events of
August of 2008 in South Ossetia confirmed this illustratively. Now
Russia obviously wants to have a possibility to talk to its nearest
neighbors, for example, to the former Soviet republic or Turkey. In
the future it will possibly consider it necessary to interfere into
the conflicts not so far from the Russian borders.
[Translated from Russian]