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Suren Surenyants names three ways ANC could choose
I do not think that the chances of Armenian National Congress (ANC)
increased. Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP) is a multi-layer
organization. This party's electorate is not completely opposition. It
would be a different thing if this party had made some decision. In
this case, it would have mobilized its electorate, political scientist
Suren Surenyants told Panorama.am when asked to comment on whether the
ANC's chances of victory increased following PAP's decision not to
nominate its candidate.
`Some of PAP members are pro-governmental, there are such people who
support the opposition, there are also such members who have declared
themselves `alternative figures,' who criticize the government and at
the same time refrain from criticism of President. It means that the
behavior of this electorate is unpredictable,' said he.
According to Surenyants, depending on the fact what policy will be
adopted by ANC, its chances of victory will either increase or
decrease due to the absence of PAP.
`Another thing is also important: the establishment of closer ties
between ANC and PAP, which we saw in 2012, was inefficient and it is
not yet clear if ANC will be able to regain its face, its visiting
card and become convincing to society,' the expert added.
According to Surenyants, ANC now has less possibilities of manoeuvre,
because in the case of PAP's participation in the elections, there
could be different formats: a consensus candidate from ANC, a
consensus candidate from PAP or unification around a third candidate.
But now ANC's possibilities are too limited, with only three ways
remaining:
`The first way is that Levon Ter-Petrosyan is a candidate for
president with uncertain prospect of victory. In this case, ANC will
perhaps maintain unity but the first president's results will be more
modest than in 2008. The second way is that ANC does not participate
in the elections. The third way is that ANC nominates another
candidate, but he will not have the consolidating resource which Levon
Ter-Petrosyan had, and this could lead to another split in ANC.'
`ANC has lost too much time. In 2012, ANC was not an independent
political factor, but rather acted as `PAP's lawyer,' the expert
stressed.
`So, I find it difficult to give an exact answer as to whether or not
this political force is able to adapt to a new reality,' Surenyants
concluded.
http://www.panorama.am/en/interviews/2012/12/14/surenyants/
From: A. Papazian
I do not think that the chances of Armenian National Congress (ANC)
increased. Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP) is a multi-layer
organization. This party's electorate is not completely opposition. It
would be a different thing if this party had made some decision. In
this case, it would have mobilized its electorate, political scientist
Suren Surenyants told Panorama.am when asked to comment on whether the
ANC's chances of victory increased following PAP's decision not to
nominate its candidate.
`Some of PAP members are pro-governmental, there are such people who
support the opposition, there are also such members who have declared
themselves `alternative figures,' who criticize the government and at
the same time refrain from criticism of President. It means that the
behavior of this electorate is unpredictable,' said he.
According to Surenyants, depending on the fact what policy will be
adopted by ANC, its chances of victory will either increase or
decrease due to the absence of PAP.
`Another thing is also important: the establishment of closer ties
between ANC and PAP, which we saw in 2012, was inefficient and it is
not yet clear if ANC will be able to regain its face, its visiting
card and become convincing to society,' the expert added.
According to Surenyants, ANC now has less possibilities of manoeuvre,
because in the case of PAP's participation in the elections, there
could be different formats: a consensus candidate from ANC, a
consensus candidate from PAP or unification around a third candidate.
But now ANC's possibilities are too limited, with only three ways
remaining:
`The first way is that Levon Ter-Petrosyan is a candidate for
president with uncertain prospect of victory. In this case, ANC will
perhaps maintain unity but the first president's results will be more
modest than in 2008. The second way is that ANC does not participate
in the elections. The third way is that ANC nominates another
candidate, but he will not have the consolidating resource which Levon
Ter-Petrosyan had, and this could lead to another split in ANC.'
`ANC has lost too much time. In 2012, ANC was not an independent
political factor, but rather acted as `PAP's lawyer,' the expert
stressed.
`So, I find it difficult to give an exact answer as to whether or not
this political force is able to adapt to a new reality,' Surenyants
concluded.
http://www.panorama.am/en/interviews/2012/12/14/surenyants/
From: A. Papazian