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`Crisis' After Gagik Tsarukyan
Levon Margaryan
Comments - Friday, 14 December 2012, 11:51
Gagik Tsarukyan's refusal to run for president, in fact, caused a
crisis in the political system, which can have quite unpleasant
consequences for Levon Ter-Petrosyan and Serzh Sargsyan. Only the
second President Robert Kocharyan can win, who still has a theoretical
chance to return. The situation has advantages for the forces that
have no real chance to win but got a good opportunity to express
themselves. However, let's be back to the first and third presidents.
On the one hand, Levon Ter-Petrosyan who mobilized all the resources
of the Armenian National Congress to support Tsarukyan is now forced
to look for new outlets. The Congress was pleased with Tsarukyan's
decision because it helped the ANC to avoid a split. But this joy was
mysteriously transferred to Levon Ter-Petrosyan, and it is obvious
that the ANC will require the nomination of the first president.
Another candidate will somehow cause a split, although Ter-Petrosyan
is not in the political age to gain resources for future. The previous
years of his policy were revanchist, and all the resource for the
change of government, dialogue and other things have been exhausted.
Hence, for his next coming Levon Ter-Petrosyan will need a bigger
public support than in 2008 to be able to take the power. Besides, the
government can defeat the Congress easier than the Prosperous Armenia,
which is more organized and competitive. The main platform of the
Congress was the public support, and in case of any format of
participation in elections the Congress will rely on the street. This
is deplorable in the sense that regardless of the quality of its
activities, having been left alone with the authorities, the Congress
may surrender, leaving the opposition space empty because the street
does not belong to it any more. On the other hand, Tsarukyan created
serious problems for Serzh Sargsyan, he thwarted the plans of the
"progressive" part of his team. The plan thought for a fight that
should have been completed with a victory over Gagik Tsarukyan cannot
take place. And now with competitors who do not have big ambitions
Serzh Sargsyan has a chance for a beautiful and ambitious victory over
the opponent, ensuring his legitimacy. If Serzh Sargsyan wins by the
majority of votes, his legitimacy will not be fully ensures, which is
the most important thing for him, in fact. Now the authorities have to
look for a candidate who can produce the impression of struggle or at
least its imitation. On the one hand, this is a trap as any candidate
who decides to confront Serzh Sargsyan risks only to legitimize him
and the elections. On the other hand, such a situation is a good
chance for those who are not in the "party space" to express
themselves. Tsarukyan's participation in the elections was a chance to
compete for legitimacy and authority. In the election campaign Serzh
Sargsyan would try to show a more "progressive" quality compared with
Tsarukyan, and the opposition would try to consolidate around
Tsarukyan. Now it will have to find other ways to achieve legitimacy.
http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/comments/view/28415
From: A. Papazian
Levon Margaryan
Comments - Friday, 14 December 2012, 11:51
Gagik Tsarukyan's refusal to run for president, in fact, caused a
crisis in the political system, which can have quite unpleasant
consequences for Levon Ter-Petrosyan and Serzh Sargsyan. Only the
second President Robert Kocharyan can win, who still has a theoretical
chance to return. The situation has advantages for the forces that
have no real chance to win but got a good opportunity to express
themselves. However, let's be back to the first and third presidents.
On the one hand, Levon Ter-Petrosyan who mobilized all the resources
of the Armenian National Congress to support Tsarukyan is now forced
to look for new outlets. The Congress was pleased with Tsarukyan's
decision because it helped the ANC to avoid a split. But this joy was
mysteriously transferred to Levon Ter-Petrosyan, and it is obvious
that the ANC will require the nomination of the first president.
Another candidate will somehow cause a split, although Ter-Petrosyan
is not in the political age to gain resources for future. The previous
years of his policy were revanchist, and all the resource for the
change of government, dialogue and other things have been exhausted.
Hence, for his next coming Levon Ter-Petrosyan will need a bigger
public support than in 2008 to be able to take the power. Besides, the
government can defeat the Congress easier than the Prosperous Armenia,
which is more organized and competitive. The main platform of the
Congress was the public support, and in case of any format of
participation in elections the Congress will rely on the street. This
is deplorable in the sense that regardless of the quality of its
activities, having been left alone with the authorities, the Congress
may surrender, leaving the opposition space empty because the street
does not belong to it any more. On the other hand, Tsarukyan created
serious problems for Serzh Sargsyan, he thwarted the plans of the
"progressive" part of his team. The plan thought for a fight that
should have been completed with a victory over Gagik Tsarukyan cannot
take place. And now with competitors who do not have big ambitions
Serzh Sargsyan has a chance for a beautiful and ambitious victory over
the opponent, ensuring his legitimacy. If Serzh Sargsyan wins by the
majority of votes, his legitimacy will not be fully ensures, which is
the most important thing for him, in fact. Now the authorities have to
look for a candidate who can produce the impression of struggle or at
least its imitation. On the one hand, this is a trap as any candidate
who decides to confront Serzh Sargsyan risks only to legitimize him
and the elections. On the other hand, such a situation is a good
chance for those who are not in the "party space" to express
themselves. Tsarukyan's participation in the elections was a chance to
compete for legitimacy and authority. In the election campaign Serzh
Sargsyan would try to show a more "progressive" quality compared with
Tsarukyan, and the opposition would try to consolidate around
Tsarukyan. Now it will have to find other ways to achieve legitimacy.
http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/comments/view/28415
From: A. Papazian