NAGORNO-KARABAKH AND 2012: ANOTHER LOST YEAR
Today's Zaman, Turkey
Dec 18 2012
AMANDA PAUL
[email protected]
Almost two decades since the signing of the ceasefire agreement,
a solution to the protracted Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between
Azerbaijan and Armenia remains elusive.
While the conflict represents the biggest security threat to the
South Caucasus region, it is the regional conflict that has received
the least international attention.
2011 was a lost year for Karabakh. Unfortunately, 2012 has gone the
same way with the peace negotiations, under the auspices of the OSCE
Minsk Group, in deadlock. There has been less pressure from direct
stakeholders and negative discourse penetrating the two societies. The
two leaders have not met since February. Because the process has
been a secretive elite-driven affair, there has been little space
for input from civil society and ordinary people. This is wholly
unconstructive as society remains unprepared for the concessions that
will be a necessity for any final deal.
While at the recent Dublin OSCE Ministerial Council the Minsk Group
co-chairs called on "the parties to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to
demonstrate the political will needed to reach a peaceful settlement,"
no meeting took place between the two foreign ministers, although
they are slated to meet at the end of January.
The situation on the ground remains dangerous. The fragile
ceasefire continues to be violated, with frequent exchanges of
fire in a trench warfare environment. In 2012 over 30 lives were
lost, including children. During the spring, violations across the
heavily militarized Line of Contact increased, as did attacks across
the Armenian-Azerbaijani state border. The visit of US Secretary
of State Hillary Clinton was accompanied by several deaths. While
both Azerbaijan and Armenia have, until now, been able to "control"
the violations and saber-rattling, it is a very risky situation,
with each side continuing to purchase even more advanced military
technology. A report earlier this year by Saferworld highlighted the
escalating dangers.
The humanitarian issue remains a real concern, as well. The conflict
displaced more than a million Azerbaijanis and Armenians. According
to the UNHCR, there were approximately 360,000 Armenian refugees and
internally-displaced persons (IDPs) and 25,000 Azerbaijani refugees
and 600,000 IDP's. According to the UNHCR, this makes up one of the
largest IDP communities in the world, representing some 7 percent of
Azerbaijan's population.
This autumn has been particularly tense. Firstly, because of the
decision by Hungary to extradite Azerbaijani Army Lt. Ramil Safarov
to Baku where he was pardoned and promoted. Safarov was sentenced
to life imprisonment after murdering Armenian Army officer Gurgen
Margaryan in 2006 during NATO training. The expected first flight
from Kojali Airport in Karabakh to Yerevan by the end of the year
has angered Baku, also increasing tensions.
Yet a new conflict would currently not seem to benefit the leaderships
of either Azerbaijan nor Armenia. The status quo serves to maintain
their hold on power. The consequences of war would also be horrendous,
spreading into the broader region, possibly drawing in other regional
powers as well as wrecking regional infrastructure including pipelines.
2013 is set to be a challenging year, not least because of presidential
elections in both Armenia and Azerbaijan. The response of the
international community should be stronger and more proactive than
ever before. Greater efforts to promote sustainable peace and support
ordinary people who are the biggest victims are essential. This
should include ways to create "safe spaces" for civil society and
ordinary people to have a greater role and voice which will not put
them in danger.
While there is a need for more pressure to cooperate on
confidence-building measures of both a military and civilian nature,
there is also a need to breathe some fresh air into the peace-process.
While the existing co-chairs are not going to be replaced, it has been
suggested by some analysts that a new "Minsk Conference" be convened
to reflect the current situation and come up with some new thinking on
how to further promote and support efforts aimed at finding a solution.
Today's Zaman, Turkey
Dec 18 2012
AMANDA PAUL
[email protected]
Almost two decades since the signing of the ceasefire agreement,
a solution to the protracted Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between
Azerbaijan and Armenia remains elusive.
While the conflict represents the biggest security threat to the
South Caucasus region, it is the regional conflict that has received
the least international attention.
2011 was a lost year for Karabakh. Unfortunately, 2012 has gone the
same way with the peace negotiations, under the auspices of the OSCE
Minsk Group, in deadlock. There has been less pressure from direct
stakeholders and negative discourse penetrating the two societies. The
two leaders have not met since February. Because the process has
been a secretive elite-driven affair, there has been little space
for input from civil society and ordinary people. This is wholly
unconstructive as society remains unprepared for the concessions that
will be a necessity for any final deal.
While at the recent Dublin OSCE Ministerial Council the Minsk Group
co-chairs called on "the parties to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to
demonstrate the political will needed to reach a peaceful settlement,"
no meeting took place between the two foreign ministers, although
they are slated to meet at the end of January.
The situation on the ground remains dangerous. The fragile
ceasefire continues to be violated, with frequent exchanges of
fire in a trench warfare environment. In 2012 over 30 lives were
lost, including children. During the spring, violations across the
heavily militarized Line of Contact increased, as did attacks across
the Armenian-Azerbaijani state border. The visit of US Secretary
of State Hillary Clinton was accompanied by several deaths. While
both Azerbaijan and Armenia have, until now, been able to "control"
the violations and saber-rattling, it is a very risky situation,
with each side continuing to purchase even more advanced military
technology. A report earlier this year by Saferworld highlighted the
escalating dangers.
The humanitarian issue remains a real concern, as well. The conflict
displaced more than a million Azerbaijanis and Armenians. According
to the UNHCR, there were approximately 360,000 Armenian refugees and
internally-displaced persons (IDPs) and 25,000 Azerbaijani refugees
and 600,000 IDP's. According to the UNHCR, this makes up one of the
largest IDP communities in the world, representing some 7 percent of
Azerbaijan's population.
This autumn has been particularly tense. Firstly, because of the
decision by Hungary to extradite Azerbaijani Army Lt. Ramil Safarov
to Baku where he was pardoned and promoted. Safarov was sentenced
to life imprisonment after murdering Armenian Army officer Gurgen
Margaryan in 2006 during NATO training. The expected first flight
from Kojali Airport in Karabakh to Yerevan by the end of the year
has angered Baku, also increasing tensions.
Yet a new conflict would currently not seem to benefit the leaderships
of either Azerbaijan nor Armenia. The status quo serves to maintain
their hold on power. The consequences of war would also be horrendous,
spreading into the broader region, possibly drawing in other regional
powers as well as wrecking regional infrastructure including pipelines.
2013 is set to be a challenging year, not least because of presidential
elections in both Armenia and Azerbaijan. The response of the
international community should be stronger and more proactive than
ever before. Greater efforts to promote sustainable peace and support
ordinary people who are the biggest victims are essential. This
should include ways to create "safe spaces" for civil society and
ordinary people to have a greater role and voice which will not put
them in danger.
While there is a need for more pressure to cooperate on
confidence-building measures of both a military and civilian nature,
there is also a need to breathe some fresh air into the peace-process.
While the existing co-chairs are not going to be replaced, it has been
suggested by some analysts that a new "Minsk Conference" be convened
to reflect the current situation and come up with some new thinking on
how to further promote and support efforts aimed at finding a solution.