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Ankara: Nagorno-Karabakh And 2012: Another Lost Year

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  • Ankara: Nagorno-Karabakh And 2012: Another Lost Year

    NAGORNO-KARABAKH AND 2012: ANOTHER LOST YEAR

    Today's Zaman, Turkey
    Dec 18 2012

    AMANDA PAUL
    [email protected]

    Almost two decades since the signing of the ceasefire agreement,
    a solution to the protracted Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between
    Azerbaijan and Armenia remains elusive.

    While the conflict represents the biggest security threat to the
    South Caucasus region, it is the regional conflict that has received
    the least international attention.

    2011 was a lost year for Karabakh. Unfortunately, 2012 has gone the
    same way with the peace negotiations, under the auspices of the OSCE
    Minsk Group, in deadlock. There has been less pressure from direct
    stakeholders and negative discourse penetrating the two societies. The
    two leaders have not met since February. Because the process has
    been a secretive elite-driven affair, there has been little space
    for input from civil society and ordinary people. This is wholly
    unconstructive as society remains unprepared for the concessions that
    will be a necessity for any final deal.

    While at the recent Dublin OSCE Ministerial Council the Minsk Group
    co-chairs called on "the parties to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to
    demonstrate the political will needed to reach a peaceful settlement,"
    no meeting took place between the two foreign ministers, although
    they are slated to meet at the end of January.

    The situation on the ground remains dangerous. The fragile
    ceasefire continues to be violated, with frequent exchanges of
    fire in a trench warfare environment. In 2012 over 30 lives were
    lost, including children. During the spring, violations across the
    heavily militarized Line of Contact increased, as did attacks across
    the Armenian-Azerbaijani state border. The visit of US Secretary
    of State Hillary Clinton was accompanied by several deaths. While
    both Azerbaijan and Armenia have, until now, been able to "control"
    the violations and saber-rattling, it is a very risky situation,
    with each side continuing to purchase even more advanced military
    technology. A report earlier this year by Saferworld highlighted the
    escalating dangers.

    The humanitarian issue remains a real concern, as well. The conflict
    displaced more than a million Azerbaijanis and Armenians. According
    to the UNHCR, there were approximately 360,000 Armenian refugees and
    internally-displaced persons (IDPs) and 25,000 Azerbaijani refugees
    and 600,000 IDP's. According to the UNHCR, this makes up one of the
    largest IDP communities in the world, representing some 7 percent of
    Azerbaijan's population.

    This autumn has been particularly tense. Firstly, because of the
    decision by Hungary to extradite Azerbaijani Army Lt. Ramil Safarov
    to Baku where he was pardoned and promoted. Safarov was sentenced
    to life imprisonment after murdering Armenian Army officer Gurgen
    Margaryan in 2006 during NATO training. The expected first flight
    from Kojali Airport in Karabakh to Yerevan by the end of the year
    has angered Baku, also increasing tensions.

    Yet a new conflict would currently not seem to benefit the leaderships
    of either Azerbaijan nor Armenia. The status quo serves to maintain
    their hold on power. The consequences of war would also be horrendous,
    spreading into the broader region, possibly drawing in other regional
    powers as well as wrecking regional infrastructure including pipelines.

    2013 is set to be a challenging year, not least because of presidential
    elections in both Armenia and Azerbaijan. The response of the
    international community should be stronger and more proactive than
    ever before. Greater efforts to promote sustainable peace and support
    ordinary people who are the biggest victims are essential. This
    should include ways to create "safe spaces" for civil society and
    ordinary people to have a greater role and voice which will not put
    them in danger.

    While there is a need for more pressure to cooperate on
    confidence-building measures of both a military and civilian nature,
    there is also a need to breathe some fresh air into the peace-process.

    While the existing co-chairs are not going to be replaced, it has been
    suggested by some analysts that a new "Minsk Conference" be convened
    to reflect the current situation and come up with some new thinking on
    how to further promote and support efforts aimed at finding a solution.

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