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SERGEY GRINYAYEV: ARMENIA'S ACCESSION TO EURASIAN UNION WOULD BE A THREAT TO THE GEO-POLITICAL PROJECTS OF THE BACKSTAGE WORLD POWERS
ArmInfo's interview with Sergey Grinyayev, Director General of the
Center for Strategic Assessments and Forecasts, Doctor of Engineering
Science
by David Stepanyan
http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid=BE661E90-4A0D-11E2-B423F6327207157C
Wednesday, December 19, 21:54
During the last meeting of the OSCE Ministerial Council in Dublin US
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called the Eurasian Union "a move
to re-Sovietize the region." What was the motivation of that
statement?
The motivation was quite simple: it is no secret that the USA watch
the post-Soviet area and, first of all, the South Caucasus states like
an instrument for fulfillment of its own geo-political goals in the
region. In particular, the Americans scare successful fulfillment of
the Eurasian Union project which will form a new force center in the
world geo-political configuration. One can say for sure that by the
Dublin statement US Secretary of State voiced death penalty to
resetting of the Russian-American relations. During her speech Clinton
also said that the USA was trying to draw out effective means to slow
down or prevent the given process. Against such a background many
leaders of the post-Soviet states voice their intention to extend
comprehensive cooperation with European Union up to joining it. By the
way, some of them like the prospect of joining the EU so much that
they even place the flag of the EU next to the national flag of their
country, which is evidence of utmost unity. Meanwhile, the leadership
of the EU is not going to further extend, as to preserve stability
within the EU is becoming more and more difficult year by year. There
are some impartial reasons for that, and first of all, global economic
crisis that captured Europe and put several European countries at the
edge of default.
The anecdotic example of the decade-long process on Turkey's joining
the EU does not seem very encouraging for the countries of the former
USSR, does it?
I think it doesn't. It is obvious that the EU goes on conducting such
a policy regarding post-Soviet states, that wish to join the "European
family", which was rather successfully tested on Turkey. The talk that
Turkey has a chance to join the EU has been there since 1963. From
that moment and to the present time, they force the Turks to make
various reforms in their country and say about achievement of "certain
progress" on the way of European integration. However, such a game may
be held to endlessness. The EU has similar position regarding the
post-Soviet states, offering various cooperation programs practically
in all the spheres. The leading European countries have been
conducting the policy of the USA and watching the South Caucasus
states like an instrument for fulfillment of their geo-political goals
in the region. "For this reason, the USA supports practically all the
integration projects and programs offered by Brussels.
Let's compare the benefits the West's and Russia's projects can give
to the post-Soviet republics and Armenia, in particular?
The surveys conducted by the Center for Strategic Assessments and
Forecasts have revealed that in the light of the systematic crisis in
the EU, Eurasian integration will provide better and more realistic
opportunities to the post-Soviet states, including Armenia, for
sustainable economic and social development. It is the real state of
affairs in the European economy and the illusive efficiency of the
European strategy of 'admonishment' that actually make the post-Soviet
states to tend towards Moscow's project. As for Armenia, it is
extremely important for Yerevan to continue its constructive and
friendly relations with Moscow.
It is the relations with Russia that help maintaining social and
economic stability in Armenia and ensuring stable domestic political
positions of the incumbent authorities. These relations create
fundamentally new conditions for the country's development in the new
post-crisis conditions of new global economy, considering that
Armenia's possible role of 'a gate to the global world' for the
Russian business was studied yet several years ago. In addition, the
status-quo in the Armenian-Russian relations should be maintained
especially in the light of the economic decline and the growth of
Armenia's foreign debt that has exceeded 5 billion dollars.
You haven't mentioned the factor of security, considering the
existence of an unresolved conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh...
The Armenian-Russian military-political partnership is ensuring the
balance of forces and stability in the South Caucasus. This is
especially important as unfavorable outcomes in Syria and Iran may
wake up some of the sleeping conflicts in the South Caucasus and
Central Asia. Well aware that European integration is a goal it will
hardly hit, Armenia is heading for Eurasia - guided by historical,
geographical, economic and legal factors. Meanwhile, some media in
Armenia are actively campaigning against this policy, which, according
to the expert, suggests that the country's accession to the Eurasian
Union may threaten the far-reaching and quite dangerous plans of the
backstage world powers.
Do you see any obstacles to Armenia's joining Russia's integration projects?
By our assessment, there are no political obstacles to Armenia's
joining the Customs Union and the Eurasian Union at present. The
existing difficulties are of technical nature only. One of the
technical problems is lack of a common border with the Customs Union
member-states. However, Armenia has no common border with the EU
either. Nevertheless, in Yerevan many advocate European integration
opposing Eurasian integration. Russian State Duma Speaker Sergey
Naryshkin, who was in Armenia in July 2012, confirmed the Customs
Union's readiness to admit the country if the authorities display
relevant political will. The Customs Union member-states are going to
set up a mix commission with Armenia to develop four-sided
cooperation. President of Russia Vladimir Putin made such statement
during his meeting with Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan in Moscow in
August. In this light, it is noteworthy that even economists of the
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development consider the Customs
Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan "the first successful example
of economic integration of the post-Soviet states."
ArmInfo's interview with Sergey Grinyayev, Director General of the
Center for Strategic Assessments and Forecasts, Doctor of Engineering
Science
by David Stepanyan
http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid=BE661E90-4A0D-11E2-B423F6327207157C
Wednesday, December 19, 21:54
During the last meeting of the OSCE Ministerial Council in Dublin US
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called the Eurasian Union "a move
to re-Sovietize the region." What was the motivation of that
statement?
The motivation was quite simple: it is no secret that the USA watch
the post-Soviet area and, first of all, the South Caucasus states like
an instrument for fulfillment of its own geo-political goals in the
region. In particular, the Americans scare successful fulfillment of
the Eurasian Union project which will form a new force center in the
world geo-political configuration. One can say for sure that by the
Dublin statement US Secretary of State voiced death penalty to
resetting of the Russian-American relations. During her speech Clinton
also said that the USA was trying to draw out effective means to slow
down or prevent the given process. Against such a background many
leaders of the post-Soviet states voice their intention to extend
comprehensive cooperation with European Union up to joining it. By the
way, some of them like the prospect of joining the EU so much that
they even place the flag of the EU next to the national flag of their
country, which is evidence of utmost unity. Meanwhile, the leadership
of the EU is not going to further extend, as to preserve stability
within the EU is becoming more and more difficult year by year. There
are some impartial reasons for that, and first of all, global economic
crisis that captured Europe and put several European countries at the
edge of default.
The anecdotic example of the decade-long process on Turkey's joining
the EU does not seem very encouraging for the countries of the former
USSR, does it?
I think it doesn't. It is obvious that the EU goes on conducting such
a policy regarding post-Soviet states, that wish to join the "European
family", which was rather successfully tested on Turkey. The talk that
Turkey has a chance to join the EU has been there since 1963. From
that moment and to the present time, they force the Turks to make
various reforms in their country and say about achievement of "certain
progress" on the way of European integration. However, such a game may
be held to endlessness. The EU has similar position regarding the
post-Soviet states, offering various cooperation programs practically
in all the spheres. The leading European countries have been
conducting the policy of the USA and watching the South Caucasus
states like an instrument for fulfillment of their geo-political goals
in the region. "For this reason, the USA supports practically all the
integration projects and programs offered by Brussels.
Let's compare the benefits the West's and Russia's projects can give
to the post-Soviet republics and Armenia, in particular?
The surveys conducted by the Center for Strategic Assessments and
Forecasts have revealed that in the light of the systematic crisis in
the EU, Eurasian integration will provide better and more realistic
opportunities to the post-Soviet states, including Armenia, for
sustainable economic and social development. It is the real state of
affairs in the European economy and the illusive efficiency of the
European strategy of 'admonishment' that actually make the post-Soviet
states to tend towards Moscow's project. As for Armenia, it is
extremely important for Yerevan to continue its constructive and
friendly relations with Moscow.
It is the relations with Russia that help maintaining social and
economic stability in Armenia and ensuring stable domestic political
positions of the incumbent authorities. These relations create
fundamentally new conditions for the country's development in the new
post-crisis conditions of new global economy, considering that
Armenia's possible role of 'a gate to the global world' for the
Russian business was studied yet several years ago. In addition, the
status-quo in the Armenian-Russian relations should be maintained
especially in the light of the economic decline and the growth of
Armenia's foreign debt that has exceeded 5 billion dollars.
You haven't mentioned the factor of security, considering the
existence of an unresolved conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh...
The Armenian-Russian military-political partnership is ensuring the
balance of forces and stability in the South Caucasus. This is
especially important as unfavorable outcomes in Syria and Iran may
wake up some of the sleeping conflicts in the South Caucasus and
Central Asia. Well aware that European integration is a goal it will
hardly hit, Armenia is heading for Eurasia - guided by historical,
geographical, economic and legal factors. Meanwhile, some media in
Armenia are actively campaigning against this policy, which, according
to the expert, suggests that the country's accession to the Eurasian
Union may threaten the far-reaching and quite dangerous plans of the
backstage world powers.
Do you see any obstacles to Armenia's joining Russia's integration projects?
By our assessment, there are no political obstacles to Armenia's
joining the Customs Union and the Eurasian Union at present. The
existing difficulties are of technical nature only. One of the
technical problems is lack of a common border with the Customs Union
member-states. However, Armenia has no common border with the EU
either. Nevertheless, in Yerevan many advocate European integration
opposing Eurasian integration. Russian State Duma Speaker Sergey
Naryshkin, who was in Armenia in July 2012, confirmed the Customs
Union's readiness to admit the country if the authorities display
relevant political will. The Customs Union member-states are going to
set up a mix commission with Armenia to develop four-sided
cooperation. President of Russia Vladimir Putin made such statement
during his meeting with Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan in Moscow in
August. In this light, it is noteworthy that even economists of the
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development consider the Customs
Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan "the first successful example
of economic integration of the post-Soviet states."