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TER-PETROSYAN DECIDED NOT TO PULL CHESTNUTS OUT OF FIRE FOR KOCHARYAN
HAKOB BADALYAN
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/comments/view/28504
11:17 25/12/2012
Levon Ter-Petrosyan does not boycott the elections. He is not running
for president due to his age. Unlike Tsarukyan, Ter-Petrosyan somehow
reasoned his decision. Unlike Tsarukyan, Ter-Petrosyan is a political
figure. Or maybe Ter-Petrosyan made his decision on his own, while
Tsarukyan's decision was imposed on him, so he did not know what to
tell about the reasons.
The question what Ter-Petrosyan will do in regard to the other
candidates is interesting. He seemed to hint that he would not
endorse anyone.
Apparently, he will try to keep silent during the presidential
election. Or is Ter-Petrosyan waiting for Osakanian's nomination?
Oskanian seemed to be waiting for Ter-Petrosyan's nomination too. But
the first president decided to avoid adventures. It is not ruled
out either that by referring his age he hints that the expectations
regarding his nomination were an adventure as well.
The expectations of Ter-Petrosyan's nomination were obviously generated
by Robert Kocharyan. Kocharyan needed Ter-Petrosyan's nomination to
thwart Serzh Sargsyan's smooth reelection because in this case he will
become stronger and more confident in the systemic processes. During
the next five years these processes will become more active since 2018
will be a year of change of government which increases the possibility
of systemic tension.
In this case, a "smooth" reelection will strengthen Serzh Sargsyan.
Ter-Petrosyan has decided not to pull chestnuts out of fire for
Kocharyan. Perhaps, the revelation of the bugged Zurabyan-Oskanian
conversation also played a role because it could destroy confidence
in Ter-Petrosyan and the fear of being betrayed later.
Only Vartan Oskanian's factor remains there. He has always supported
the idea of nomination and competition with Serzh Sargsyan. It was
impossible to do it by way of Tsarukyan and Ter-Petrosyan, so Oskanian
has to do that himself.
If Oskanian runs, Ter-Petrosyan may support him, at least indirectly.
After the decision of the first president, the question "where
Ter-Petrosyan's votes will go" adds to the question "where Tsraukyan's
votes will go".
It is especially interesting to know whether Ter-Petrosyan and the
Congress will endorse Hrant Bagratyan.
Furthermore, Levon Zurabyan's nomination should not be ruled out
either, which was hinted months ago in the form of reflections of the
"Russian roof" of the Congress Smbat Karakhanyan who said in Moscow
that Ter-Petrosyan had better cede the path to Levon Zurabyan. The
opinion of Moscow has been respected in the Congress since the
"Middle Ages".
HAKOB BADALYAN
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index.php/eng/0/comments/view/28504
11:17 25/12/2012
Levon Ter-Petrosyan does not boycott the elections. He is not running
for president due to his age. Unlike Tsarukyan, Ter-Petrosyan somehow
reasoned his decision. Unlike Tsarukyan, Ter-Petrosyan is a political
figure. Or maybe Ter-Petrosyan made his decision on his own, while
Tsarukyan's decision was imposed on him, so he did not know what to
tell about the reasons.
The question what Ter-Petrosyan will do in regard to the other
candidates is interesting. He seemed to hint that he would not
endorse anyone.
Apparently, he will try to keep silent during the presidential
election. Or is Ter-Petrosyan waiting for Osakanian's nomination?
Oskanian seemed to be waiting for Ter-Petrosyan's nomination too. But
the first president decided to avoid adventures. It is not ruled
out either that by referring his age he hints that the expectations
regarding his nomination were an adventure as well.
The expectations of Ter-Petrosyan's nomination were obviously generated
by Robert Kocharyan. Kocharyan needed Ter-Petrosyan's nomination to
thwart Serzh Sargsyan's smooth reelection because in this case he will
become stronger and more confident in the systemic processes. During
the next five years these processes will become more active since 2018
will be a year of change of government which increases the possibility
of systemic tension.
In this case, a "smooth" reelection will strengthen Serzh Sargsyan.
Ter-Petrosyan has decided not to pull chestnuts out of fire for
Kocharyan. Perhaps, the revelation of the bugged Zurabyan-Oskanian
conversation also played a role because it could destroy confidence
in Ter-Petrosyan and the fear of being betrayed later.
Only Vartan Oskanian's factor remains there. He has always supported
the idea of nomination and competition with Serzh Sargsyan. It was
impossible to do it by way of Tsarukyan and Ter-Petrosyan, so Oskanian
has to do that himself.
If Oskanian runs, Ter-Petrosyan may support him, at least indirectly.
After the decision of the first president, the question "where
Ter-Petrosyan's votes will go" adds to the question "where Tsraukyan's
votes will go".
It is especially interesting to know whether Ter-Petrosyan and the
Congress will endorse Hrant Bagratyan.
Furthermore, Levon Zurabyan's nomination should not be ruled out
either, which was hinted months ago in the form of reflections of the
"Russian roof" of the Congress Smbat Karakhanyan who said in Moscow
that Ter-Petrosyan had better cede the path to Levon Zurabyan. The
opinion of Moscow has been respected in the Congress since the
"Middle Ages".