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CHALLENGES TO ARMENIA IN THE GLOBALIZING WORLD
http://www.noravank.am/eng/articles/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=6829
27-12-2012 23:45:45 | Armenia | Articles and Analyses
Gagik Harutyunyan
Director, Noravank Foundation
In Arnold Toynbeeâ??s classical formulation, the viability of
civilizations depends on their ability to adequately respond to
challenges. In this sense it can be stated that for several millennia
Armenia has been able to face (to various extent) its challenges.
Globalization accompanied humankind since ages and at times took the
shape and essence of so-called â??local globalization/unificationâ?? [1,
Ñ?. 80]. However, we shall examine the last wave of globalization,
which resulted, inter alia, in collapse of the socialist system and
the USSR. Undoubtedly, this phenomenon was a geopolitical,
civilizational, humanitarian and economic catastrophe and as such, it
was a serious challenge for Armenia. Nevertheless, Armenia adequately
responded to the threats, won the war against Azerbaijan and liberated
Artsakh, as it was the most accomplished state in the region (which
above all, stemmed from our civilizational, state and military
traditions and the spiritual, intellectual, scientific, technological
and industrial potential created in the Second Republic).
Armenia: the Most Accomplished State of the Region
As years passed, Armenia (RoA and NKR) maintained the status of the
most stable state, and this is not just a statement. As known, Foreign
Policy, a reputable magazine, and Fund for Peace annually publish the
Failed States Index rankings. These are prepared with a special
methodology based on assessments made using an evaluation toolkit,
which are expressed in values of 12 indicators (see Table 1).
According to this methodology, the lower the score for a country, the
more stable/accomplished it is, i.e. the lowest ranking country is the
most accomplished one. Results of the 2012 Failed States Index are
shown in the Table 2 below1 (the numbered columns correspond to the
indicators of Table 1). As seen, Armenia has considerably lower scores
than its neighbors and is a regional leader with a wide margin, i.e.
Armenia is the most accomplished state in the region, which has been
traditionally the case for a number of years in this reputable
international ranking system.
Table 1
Table 2
Failed States Index 2012
The low value of the 8th indicator, â??Progressive Deterioration of
Public Servicesâ??, deserves special attention, as it signifies a
developed state governance system, as compared to the neighbors.
At the same time Table 2 indicates that Armenia faces serious problems
in social and demographic dimensions (indicators 1-4), which will be
discussed later while reviewing internal challenges of Armenia. It has
to be mentioned that in an accomplished state every professional
subgroup has to pursue its own professional functions, and in this
sense one of the primary objectives of the analystsâ?? community is
predicting the expected challenges and attempting to point out the
opportunities to adequately respond to those.
Possible Disruption of the Regional Political and Military Balance
Under the above mentioned circumstances it is worthwhile to consider
the known fact that the Greater Middle East is in so-called
â??turbulentâ??, unstable conditions resulting from developments around
Iranâ??s nuclear program, war in Syria and ongoing processes in the
context of â??Arab Springâ??. This new regional situation is a challenge
not only to the Armenian communities, the very existence of which is
currently threatened, and possible disintegration of which may
radically change the shape and essence of the Armenian Diaspora. This
instability poses a direct threat to the security of Armenia, since in
some scenarios weakening of Iran2 may disrupt the existing military
and political balance in the region and lead to strengthening of
Turkey, which may become a dominant regional power [2]. Attention
needs to be paid also to the small value of the 12th indicator for
this country, which points to low dependence of Turkey on foreign
countries and signifies its endeavor to act independently, without
much regard to the senior NATO partners. Indoctrinated with
neo-Ottoman ideology, the Turkish political elite is more than
ambitious and aspires to build:
an â??Islamic NATOâ?? and â??Islamic Peacekeeping Forcesâ?? (thus reviving the
agendas of former prime minister and radical Islamist Erbakan, who is
ErdoÄ?anâ??s ideological father);
nuclear weaponry;
economic zone of Turkish lira.
Emergence of a Turkey with such military, political and economic
claims is a very serious challenge to Armenia. Undoubtedly,
strengthening of Turkey, which has an uncompromising attitude in the
NKR problem (with some analysts considering Turkey as a party to the
conflict) and imposes blockade of our borders (equaling to an act of
war), will toughen its stance against Armenia. Also, Turkeyâ??s nuclear
program deserves special attention, as its implementation is an
extremely serious challenge not only to Armenia, but also to Israel
and Greece [1, p. 247, 3-5].
Contemplating such scenarios implies complex approaches and in this
context the scenario of â??Turkeyâ??s weakening and partitionâ?? [1, p. 179]
has to be considered as well. It is no surprise that currently the
analystsâ?? community actively discusses the â??bad futureâ?? of not only
Saudi Arabia and Qatar, but also Turkey. It is more than
substantiated, because no signs of solutions for ongoing unrest in
this country are visible on the horizon: the â??Kurdish causeâ?? is on
agenda again and has been internationalized3, whereas the so-called
â??identity crisisâ?? deepens in the society, leading to escalation of
ethno-religious conflicts. In addition, the ideological/political
standoff increasingly exacerbates between supporters of the current
Islamic and formerly dominant secular development models. Some
commentators note that the current neo-Ottomanism based aggressive
foreign policy of Prime Minister ErdoÄ?an contains considerable risks
(see for example [6, 7]). However, it has to be considered that such
seemingly desirable developments also pose a peculiar challenge to
Armenia, an adequate response to which requires prior planning.
Armenia as a â??frontier countryâ?? and â??Global governanceâ?? scenarios
In any circumstances it has to be recognized that ongoing processes in
the Middle East definitely integrate the Islamic World and detach it
from theWestern, European World. This is a problem for Armenia not
only in the event if Turkey becomes dominant, but also in the opposite
case, if it succumbs. Collapse of secular administrations in the
Middle East and ongoing religious radicalization of societies
destabilize the region, and hence, make it unpredictable in military
and political terms.
Remarkably, possibility of such trend has been pointed out already in
2010 in a report titled Global Governance 2025 prepared by the US
National Intelligence Council (NIC), EU Institute for Security Studies
(EUISS), as well as by a number of Russian, Chinese and Indian
experts4. Among other predicted developments, the following scenarios
deserve attention in this report:
Fragmentation
Concert of Europe Redux
According to the authors of the report, the pessimistic
â??Fragmentationâ?? scenario implies that trends of â??civilizational
divisionâ?? begin to dominate in the world, leading to various
conflicts. In particular, Asia builds its own regional order (which is
very much reminiscent of the current situation in the Middle East
ensuing the â??Arab Springâ??), while Europe â??turns its focus inward as it
wrestlesâ?? with own problems. The second scenario is more optimistic,
suggesting revival of Vienna Congress System5 (a.k.a. â??Concert of
Europeâ??), although quite naturally in a new format. In other words, a
powerful and unified Europe is established.
The experts who authored this report (2010) viewed the mentioned two
scenarios separately, whereas the current trends leave an impression
that such global developments can occur simultaneously. This is
evidenced by:
Political and economic systems integration processes of the EU
member-states, which may result in establishing EU as a unified and
full-fledged geopolitical structure [8];
The decision made by presidents of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus to
establish Eurasian Union (EAU) in 2013;
The emergence of an idea among political and analyst communities of
the leading European and post-Soviet states that EU and EAU countries
should unite politically, so as to face the challenges of the
â??fragmentingâ?? world (a larger-scale spinoff of the â??Concert of Europeâ??
scenario that implies â??Greater Europeâ?? from Lisbon to Vladivostok (EU
+ EAU)).
Against the backdrop of all of this it has to be acknowledged once
again that Armenia is a frontier state to the Islamic World, which
adds relevance to the task of putting our civilizational and
geopolitical orientations in appropriate military/political formats.
This political necessity prompts Armenia to actively participate in
European and Eurasian integration processes, which would considerably
improve the level of Armeniaâ??s security. However, it should be noted
that in the Armenian analystsâ?? community sometimes one may hear
opinions that the format of the EU Eastern Partnership and the issue
of EAU membership are mutually exclusive processes. Apparently, such
approaches are anachronistic, as they reflect the misconception of the
first years of post-Soviet era with regard to â??escaping from the
Russian Empire.â?? Indicatively, in the political circles of Armenia
(where issues are viewed in a more realistic manner) an approach
begins to dominate that integration processes within European and
Eurasian formats are complementary, rather than contradictory.
At the same time, the problem of â??integrationâ?? is relevant in the
regional dimension and it needs to be emphasized that Georgia is also
located on the edge of a geopolitical and civilizational â??fissureâ?? and
it is a â??frontier stateâ??, too, although in a slightly more auspicious
version. Potential coordination of efforts between these two regional
neighboring countries would only contribute to integrating in the
â??Concert of Europeâ?? in a more beneficial manner. Given the current
changes happening in Georgia, it is not totally unlikely that such
cooperation may make possible establishing a region with
civilizational content stretching from Sukhumi to Stepanakert.
Internal Challenges to the Security of Armenia
As it is known, the cornerstone of national security for any country
is first of all its internal resources. In this sense it is relevant
to recall the words of Chinese strategist Sun Tzu: â??Being
unconquerable lies with yourself; being conquerable lies with your
enemy.â??
It is known that in the aftermath of the USSR collapse Armenia
encountered numerous economic and social problems, the ramifications
of which are yet to be overcome. Armenian society is particularly
concerned about demographic problems. The situation in this area is
reflected in the indicators of columns 1, 2 and 4 of the Table 2;
demographic pressures, massive movement of refugees or internally
displaced persons and chronic and sustained human flight,
respectively. These indicators suggest high values for their
corresponding quantitative numbers, which points to a poor situation
in this area. What causes concern is not only the high numbers of
population outflow from Armenia, but also the fact that the number of
persons involved in â??sophisticated workâ?? (i.e. highly knowledgeable
professionals in various fields) has drastically diminished (some
sources suggest as high as tenfold decrease). Also it is
characteristic that the Third Republic spends dozens of times less
funds on science and technology than the Second Republic did.
The ensuing situation is directly related with the overall power of
the state. There are different methods for quantitative expression of
this concept (for instance, see [9]), but the formula by Ray S. Cline,
a CIA analyst, seems most applicable [10]. We have added a new member
D to this formula in order to reflect the factor of diaspora, which is
relevant to the Armenian realities, with the resultant formula as
follows:
P = (C + E + M + D) Ã - (S + W)
where:
P is the power of state;
C is the critical mass (population and territory);
E is the economic/industrial capability;
M is the military capability;
D is the overall resources of diaspora;
S is the strategic purpose;
W is the will to pursue national policy.
The formula suggests that a stateâ??s power depends not only on its
population (C), but also on the countryâ??s intellectual and spiritual
resources (S, W), because without those it is impossible to develop an
effective national strategy, much less to attain the objectives of
such strategy. Ostensibly, addressing such problems is impossible
without mobilization of pertinent resources in both Armenia and
Diaspora. It has to be also noted that our current understanding and
knowledge about Diasporaâ??s (and sometimes also Armeniaâ??s) spiritual
and intellectual potential are from being comprehensive. In this
regard it seems appropriate to refer once again to the responsibility
of professional subgroups. We believe one of the primary missions of
our experts/analysts community is keeping an inventory of
spiritual/intellectual resources in Armenia and Diaspora, and
organizing these resources in a coordinated effort towards development
of national strategic programs. In particular, programs need to be
developed on halting population outflow and significantly increasing
the spiritual/intellectual resources.
Organizing such efforts is not an easy task. Admittedly, the
scientific/R&D system of Armenia is rather disintegrated and there are
no tools and methods that would allow experts in Armenia and Diaspora
to conduct effective activities. For attaining these objectives it is
worthwhile to establish a Research Network Institute (RNI), which
should be sponsored both by the Armenian government and Diaspora.
1 http://www.foreignpolicy.com/failed_states_index_2012_interactive
2 Scenarios of a potential nuclear war between Israel and Iran deserve
a separate discussion (see [1, p. 178])
3 See for example: Ð?Ñ?Ñ?дÑ?кий лабиÑ?инÑ? ТÑ?Ñ?Ñ?ии,
http://www.rodon.org/polit-121130105832
4 Global Governance 2025: At a Critical Juncture. National
Intelligense Council, Europian Union Institute for Security Studies,
September 2010,http://www.iss.europa.eu/uploads/media/Global__Governance_2025.pdf
5 This system was formed by representatives of Great Britain, Russia,
Austria and other European countries based on agreements they reached
in 1815 Vienna Congress (in aftermath of the Napoleanic Wars). The
system quite effectively ensured so to speak â??collective securityâ?? of
the European countries, until Crimean War broke out in 1853.
References and Literature
Ð?Ñ?Ñ?Ñ?Ñ?нÑ?н Ð`агик, ÐаÑ?пад Ñ?иÑ?Ñ?емÑ? и Ñ?оÑ?миÑ?ование бÑ?дÑ?Ñ?его, Ð-Ñ?еван, 2011.
Õ?Õ¡Ö?Õ¸Ö?Õ©ÕµÕ¸Ö?Õ¶ÕµÕ¡Õ¶ Ô³Õ¡Õ£Õ«Õ¯, Õ?Õ«Ö?Õ«Õ¡Õ¯Õ¡Õ¶ ÕºÕ¡Õ¿Õ¥Ö?Õ¡Õ¦Õ´. Õ°Õ¶Õ¡Ö?Õ¡Õ¾Õ¸Ö? Õ½Ö?Õ¥Õ¶Õ¡Ö?Õ¶Õ¥Ö?, Ô³Õ¬Õ¸Õ¢Õ¸Ö?Õ½
#11, Õ§Õ» 5, 2012Ö?
Õ?Õ¡Ö?Õ¸Ö?Õ©ÕµÕ¸Ö?Õ¶ÕµÕ¡Õ¶ Ô³Õ¡Õ£Õ«Õ¯, Ô¹Õ¸Ö?Ö?Ö?Õ¡Õ¯Õ¡Õ¶ Õ´Õ«Õ»Õ¸Ö?Õ¯Õ¡ÕµÕ«Õ¶ Õ½ÕºÕ¡Õ¼Õ¶Õ¡Õ¬Õ«Ö?Õ¨, Ô³Õ¬Õ¸Õ¢Õ¸Ö?Õ½ # 4, Õ§Õ»
5, 2012Ö? http://noravank.am/arm/articles/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=6449,
http://www.noravank.am/rus/articles/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=6451&sphrase_id=19499
Õ?Õ¡Ö?Õ»Õ¡Õ¶ÕµÕ¡Õ¶ Ô±Ö?Õ¡, Õ?Õ«Õ»Õ¸Ö?Õ¯Õ¡ÕµÕ«Õ¶ Ô¹Õ¸Ö?Ö?Ö?Õ«Õ¡, Ô³Õ¬Õ¸Õ¢Õ¸Ö?Õ½ #4, 2012,
http://noravank.am/arm/articles/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=6470,http://www.noravank.am/rus/articles/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=6472&sphrase_id=19502
Õ?Õ¥Ö?-Õ?Õ¡Ö?Õ¸Ö?Õ©ÕµÕ¸Ö?Õ¶ÕµÕ¡Õ¶ Ô±Ö?Õ¿Õ¡Õ·Õ¥Õ½, Ô¹Õ¸Ö?Ö?Ö?Õ«Õ¡ÕµÕ« Õ´Õ«Õ»Õ¸Ö?Õ¯Õ¡ÕµÕ«Õ¶ Õ¶Õ¯Ö?Õ¿Õ¸Ö?Õ´Õ¶Õ¥Ö?Õ«
Õ¾Õ¥Ö?Õ¡Õ¢Õ¥Ö?ÕµÕ¡Õ¬, Ô³Õ¬Õ¸Õ¢Õ¸Ö?Õ½ #4, Õ§Õ» 17,
2012,http://www.noravank.am/arm/articles/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=6383&sphrase_id=19497
Ð?иÑ?заÑ?н Ð`евоÑ?г, Ð`мам не Ñ?деÑ?жал азаÑ?Ñ?а, ÐкÑ?пеÑ?Ñ?, #30-31 (813), Ñ?. 69, 2012.
Ð'лаÑ?ова Ð?лÑ?га, Ð?иÑ?заÑ?н Ð`евоÑ?г, Ð`олÑ?Ñ?аÑ? оÑ?ибка ТÑ?Ñ?Ñ?ии, ÐкÑ?пеÑ?Ñ?, #42
(824), Ñ?. 18, 2012.
Õ?Õ¡Ö?Õ¸Ö?Õ©ÕµÕ¸Ö?Õ¶ÕµÕ¡Õ¶ Ô³Õ¡Õ£Õ«Õ¯, ÔµÕ¾Ö?Õ¡Õ´Õ«Õ¸Ö?Õ©ÕµÕ¸Ö?Õ¶. Õ¶Õ¸Ö? Õ´Õ«Õ¿Õ¸Ö?Õ´Õ¶Õ¥Ö?, Ô³Õ¬Õ¸Õ¢Õ¸Ö?Õ½, #6, Õ§Õ» 3,
2012, http://noravank.am/arm/articles/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=6580
Ð`лобалÑ?нÑ?й Ñ?ейÑ?инг инÑ?егÑ?алÑ?ной моÑ?и 100 ведÑ?Ñ?иÑ... Ñ?Ñ?Ñ?ан миÑ?а (под
наÑ?Ñ?ной Ñ?едакÑ?ией пÑ?оÑ?. Ð?.Ð`. Ð?геева (ÐоÑ?Ñ?иÑ?), пÑоÑ?. Ð`.Ð`енÑ?а
(Ð`еÑманиÑ?), пÑоÑ?. Ð.Ð`еÑ?Ñ?Ñ?за (Ð'еликобÑиÑ?аниÑ?), Ð`., Ð`еждÑ?наÑоднаÑ?
Ð?кадемиÑ? иÑ?Ñ?ледований бÑ?дÑ?Ñ?его, 2008.
Cline, Ray S., World Power Assessment: A Calculus of Strategic Drift.
Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press. 1975, and Ð`алаÑ...онÑ?ев Ð'., Ð?ондÑаÑ?Ñ?ев
Ð?., Ð - аÑÑ?бежнÑ?е меÑ?одÑ? оÑ?енки поÑ?енÑ?иала Ñ?Ñ?Ñан. Ð - аÑÑ?бежное военное
обозÑение, #11(764), Ñ?. 101, 2010.
http://www.noravank.am/eng/articles/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=6829
27-12-2012 23:45:45 | Armenia | Articles and Analyses
Gagik Harutyunyan
Director, Noravank Foundation
In Arnold Toynbeeâ??s classical formulation, the viability of
civilizations depends on their ability to adequately respond to
challenges. In this sense it can be stated that for several millennia
Armenia has been able to face (to various extent) its challenges.
Globalization accompanied humankind since ages and at times took the
shape and essence of so-called â??local globalization/unificationâ?? [1,
Ñ?. 80]. However, we shall examine the last wave of globalization,
which resulted, inter alia, in collapse of the socialist system and
the USSR. Undoubtedly, this phenomenon was a geopolitical,
civilizational, humanitarian and economic catastrophe and as such, it
was a serious challenge for Armenia. Nevertheless, Armenia adequately
responded to the threats, won the war against Azerbaijan and liberated
Artsakh, as it was the most accomplished state in the region (which
above all, stemmed from our civilizational, state and military
traditions and the spiritual, intellectual, scientific, technological
and industrial potential created in the Second Republic).
Armenia: the Most Accomplished State of the Region
As years passed, Armenia (RoA and NKR) maintained the status of the
most stable state, and this is not just a statement. As known, Foreign
Policy, a reputable magazine, and Fund for Peace annually publish the
Failed States Index rankings. These are prepared with a special
methodology based on assessments made using an evaluation toolkit,
which are expressed in values of 12 indicators (see Table 1).
According to this methodology, the lower the score for a country, the
more stable/accomplished it is, i.e. the lowest ranking country is the
most accomplished one. Results of the 2012 Failed States Index are
shown in the Table 2 below1 (the numbered columns correspond to the
indicators of Table 1). As seen, Armenia has considerably lower scores
than its neighbors and is a regional leader with a wide margin, i.e.
Armenia is the most accomplished state in the region, which has been
traditionally the case for a number of years in this reputable
international ranking system.
Table 1
Table 2
Failed States Index 2012
The low value of the 8th indicator, â??Progressive Deterioration of
Public Servicesâ??, deserves special attention, as it signifies a
developed state governance system, as compared to the neighbors.
At the same time Table 2 indicates that Armenia faces serious problems
in social and demographic dimensions (indicators 1-4), which will be
discussed later while reviewing internal challenges of Armenia. It has
to be mentioned that in an accomplished state every professional
subgroup has to pursue its own professional functions, and in this
sense one of the primary objectives of the analystsâ?? community is
predicting the expected challenges and attempting to point out the
opportunities to adequately respond to those.
Possible Disruption of the Regional Political and Military Balance
Under the above mentioned circumstances it is worthwhile to consider
the known fact that the Greater Middle East is in so-called
â??turbulentâ??, unstable conditions resulting from developments around
Iranâ??s nuclear program, war in Syria and ongoing processes in the
context of â??Arab Springâ??. This new regional situation is a challenge
not only to the Armenian communities, the very existence of which is
currently threatened, and possible disintegration of which may
radically change the shape and essence of the Armenian Diaspora. This
instability poses a direct threat to the security of Armenia, since in
some scenarios weakening of Iran2 may disrupt the existing military
and political balance in the region and lead to strengthening of
Turkey, which may become a dominant regional power [2]. Attention
needs to be paid also to the small value of the 12th indicator for
this country, which points to low dependence of Turkey on foreign
countries and signifies its endeavor to act independently, without
much regard to the senior NATO partners. Indoctrinated with
neo-Ottoman ideology, the Turkish political elite is more than
ambitious and aspires to build:
an â??Islamic NATOâ?? and â??Islamic Peacekeeping Forcesâ?? (thus reviving the
agendas of former prime minister and radical Islamist Erbakan, who is
ErdoÄ?anâ??s ideological father);
nuclear weaponry;
economic zone of Turkish lira.
Emergence of a Turkey with such military, political and economic
claims is a very serious challenge to Armenia. Undoubtedly,
strengthening of Turkey, which has an uncompromising attitude in the
NKR problem (with some analysts considering Turkey as a party to the
conflict) and imposes blockade of our borders (equaling to an act of
war), will toughen its stance against Armenia. Also, Turkeyâ??s nuclear
program deserves special attention, as its implementation is an
extremely serious challenge not only to Armenia, but also to Israel
and Greece [1, p. 247, 3-5].
Contemplating such scenarios implies complex approaches and in this
context the scenario of â??Turkeyâ??s weakening and partitionâ?? [1, p. 179]
has to be considered as well. It is no surprise that currently the
analystsâ?? community actively discusses the â??bad futureâ?? of not only
Saudi Arabia and Qatar, but also Turkey. It is more than
substantiated, because no signs of solutions for ongoing unrest in
this country are visible on the horizon: the â??Kurdish causeâ?? is on
agenda again and has been internationalized3, whereas the so-called
â??identity crisisâ?? deepens in the society, leading to escalation of
ethno-religious conflicts. In addition, the ideological/political
standoff increasingly exacerbates between supporters of the current
Islamic and formerly dominant secular development models. Some
commentators note that the current neo-Ottomanism based aggressive
foreign policy of Prime Minister ErdoÄ?an contains considerable risks
(see for example [6, 7]). However, it has to be considered that such
seemingly desirable developments also pose a peculiar challenge to
Armenia, an adequate response to which requires prior planning.
Armenia as a â??frontier countryâ?? and â??Global governanceâ?? scenarios
In any circumstances it has to be recognized that ongoing processes in
the Middle East definitely integrate the Islamic World and detach it
from theWestern, European World. This is a problem for Armenia not
only in the event if Turkey becomes dominant, but also in the opposite
case, if it succumbs. Collapse of secular administrations in the
Middle East and ongoing religious radicalization of societies
destabilize the region, and hence, make it unpredictable in military
and political terms.
Remarkably, possibility of such trend has been pointed out already in
2010 in a report titled Global Governance 2025 prepared by the US
National Intelligence Council (NIC), EU Institute for Security Studies
(EUISS), as well as by a number of Russian, Chinese and Indian
experts4. Among other predicted developments, the following scenarios
deserve attention in this report:
Fragmentation
Concert of Europe Redux
According to the authors of the report, the pessimistic
â??Fragmentationâ?? scenario implies that trends of â??civilizational
divisionâ?? begin to dominate in the world, leading to various
conflicts. In particular, Asia builds its own regional order (which is
very much reminiscent of the current situation in the Middle East
ensuing the â??Arab Springâ??), while Europe â??turns its focus inward as it
wrestlesâ?? with own problems. The second scenario is more optimistic,
suggesting revival of Vienna Congress System5 (a.k.a. â??Concert of
Europeâ??), although quite naturally in a new format. In other words, a
powerful and unified Europe is established.
The experts who authored this report (2010) viewed the mentioned two
scenarios separately, whereas the current trends leave an impression
that such global developments can occur simultaneously. This is
evidenced by:
Political and economic systems integration processes of the EU
member-states, which may result in establishing EU as a unified and
full-fledged geopolitical structure [8];
The decision made by presidents of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus to
establish Eurasian Union (EAU) in 2013;
The emergence of an idea among political and analyst communities of
the leading European and post-Soviet states that EU and EAU countries
should unite politically, so as to face the challenges of the
â??fragmentingâ?? world (a larger-scale spinoff of the â??Concert of Europeâ??
scenario that implies â??Greater Europeâ?? from Lisbon to Vladivostok (EU
+ EAU)).
Against the backdrop of all of this it has to be acknowledged once
again that Armenia is a frontier state to the Islamic World, which
adds relevance to the task of putting our civilizational and
geopolitical orientations in appropriate military/political formats.
This political necessity prompts Armenia to actively participate in
European and Eurasian integration processes, which would considerably
improve the level of Armeniaâ??s security. However, it should be noted
that in the Armenian analystsâ?? community sometimes one may hear
opinions that the format of the EU Eastern Partnership and the issue
of EAU membership are mutually exclusive processes. Apparently, such
approaches are anachronistic, as they reflect the misconception of the
first years of post-Soviet era with regard to â??escaping from the
Russian Empire.â?? Indicatively, in the political circles of Armenia
(where issues are viewed in a more realistic manner) an approach
begins to dominate that integration processes within European and
Eurasian formats are complementary, rather than contradictory.
At the same time, the problem of â??integrationâ?? is relevant in the
regional dimension and it needs to be emphasized that Georgia is also
located on the edge of a geopolitical and civilizational â??fissureâ?? and
it is a â??frontier stateâ??, too, although in a slightly more auspicious
version. Potential coordination of efforts between these two regional
neighboring countries would only contribute to integrating in the
â??Concert of Europeâ?? in a more beneficial manner. Given the current
changes happening in Georgia, it is not totally unlikely that such
cooperation may make possible establishing a region with
civilizational content stretching from Sukhumi to Stepanakert.
Internal Challenges to the Security of Armenia
As it is known, the cornerstone of national security for any country
is first of all its internal resources. In this sense it is relevant
to recall the words of Chinese strategist Sun Tzu: â??Being
unconquerable lies with yourself; being conquerable lies with your
enemy.â??
It is known that in the aftermath of the USSR collapse Armenia
encountered numerous economic and social problems, the ramifications
of which are yet to be overcome. Armenian society is particularly
concerned about demographic problems. The situation in this area is
reflected in the indicators of columns 1, 2 and 4 of the Table 2;
demographic pressures, massive movement of refugees or internally
displaced persons and chronic and sustained human flight,
respectively. These indicators suggest high values for their
corresponding quantitative numbers, which points to a poor situation
in this area. What causes concern is not only the high numbers of
population outflow from Armenia, but also the fact that the number of
persons involved in â??sophisticated workâ?? (i.e. highly knowledgeable
professionals in various fields) has drastically diminished (some
sources suggest as high as tenfold decrease). Also it is
characteristic that the Third Republic spends dozens of times less
funds on science and technology than the Second Republic did.
The ensuing situation is directly related with the overall power of
the state. There are different methods for quantitative expression of
this concept (for instance, see [9]), but the formula by Ray S. Cline,
a CIA analyst, seems most applicable [10]. We have added a new member
D to this formula in order to reflect the factor of diaspora, which is
relevant to the Armenian realities, with the resultant formula as
follows:
P = (C + E + M + D) Ã - (S + W)
where:
P is the power of state;
C is the critical mass (population and territory);
E is the economic/industrial capability;
M is the military capability;
D is the overall resources of diaspora;
S is the strategic purpose;
W is the will to pursue national policy.
The formula suggests that a stateâ??s power depends not only on its
population (C), but also on the countryâ??s intellectual and spiritual
resources (S, W), because without those it is impossible to develop an
effective national strategy, much less to attain the objectives of
such strategy. Ostensibly, addressing such problems is impossible
without mobilization of pertinent resources in both Armenia and
Diaspora. It has to be also noted that our current understanding and
knowledge about Diasporaâ??s (and sometimes also Armeniaâ??s) spiritual
and intellectual potential are from being comprehensive. In this
regard it seems appropriate to refer once again to the responsibility
of professional subgroups. We believe one of the primary missions of
our experts/analysts community is keeping an inventory of
spiritual/intellectual resources in Armenia and Diaspora, and
organizing these resources in a coordinated effort towards development
of national strategic programs. In particular, programs need to be
developed on halting population outflow and significantly increasing
the spiritual/intellectual resources.
Organizing such efforts is not an easy task. Admittedly, the
scientific/R&D system of Armenia is rather disintegrated and there are
no tools and methods that would allow experts in Armenia and Diaspora
to conduct effective activities. For attaining these objectives it is
worthwhile to establish a Research Network Institute (RNI), which
should be sponsored both by the Armenian government and Diaspora.
1 http://www.foreignpolicy.com/failed_states_index_2012_interactive
2 Scenarios of a potential nuclear war between Israel and Iran deserve
a separate discussion (see [1, p. 178])
3 See for example: Ð?Ñ?Ñ?дÑ?кий лабиÑ?инÑ? ТÑ?Ñ?Ñ?ии,
http://www.rodon.org/polit-121130105832
4 Global Governance 2025: At a Critical Juncture. National
Intelligense Council, Europian Union Institute for Security Studies,
September 2010,http://www.iss.europa.eu/uploads/media/Global__Governance_2025.pdf
5 This system was formed by representatives of Great Britain, Russia,
Austria and other European countries based on agreements they reached
in 1815 Vienna Congress (in aftermath of the Napoleanic Wars). The
system quite effectively ensured so to speak â??collective securityâ?? of
the European countries, until Crimean War broke out in 1853.
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