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NEWS ANALYSIS: TURKEY NOT IN RUSH ON ANTI-FRANCE SANCTIONS OVER ARMENIAN GENOCIDE BILL
Xinhua General News Service
January 29, 2012 Sunday 7:25 AM EST
China
Turkey delayed the releasing of sanction measures towards France over
its approval of a "Armenian genocide" bill, arousing soaring debates
of Turkey's dilemma among experts.
The French Senate voted last Monday 127 to 86 in favor of the draft
bill after hours of debate, making it illegal to deny as " genocide"
the killing of Armenians by Ottoman Turks in 1915. The bill, waiting
to be signed by French President Nicolas Sarkozy, has been passed
by the French National Assembly, the lower house of the parliament,
on Dec. 22 last year.
"This bill is part of a larger wave of rising extreme-right opinion in
Europe, including in France, against non-Europeans, including Turkey,"
Cinar Ozen, an academic at Ankara University, was quoted by local
media as saying on Sunday.
Turkey vowed to slap Paris with harsh sanctions after its approval
of the bill. While claiming the bill was "null and void" to Turkey,
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Tuesday that
Turkish leaders are "waiting with patience to see how the process
will go on" before presenting action plan against France, adding that
"if We decide to implement those measures, there will be no step back."
However, possible sanctions on France will be a double-edged sword,
Turkish newspaper Today's Zaman quoted experts as saying on Sunday.
Although there are little room left for Turkey to impose sanctions
economically as both Turkey and France are WTO members, experts
believe it is not uncommon in Turkish society for citizens to mobilize
through the use of emails or social networks and have their say in
politics through the use of their only means of intervention, which
is disrupting business.
When the French Senate passed into law in 2001 the recognition of the
incidents of 1915 as genocide, French exports to Turkey saw almost a
40 percent decline, said Zeynep Necipoglu, head of the Turkish-French
Chamber of Commerce.
"Economic measures would eventually return as damage to Turkey, "
Necipoglu warned as she elaborated that the French firms operating in
Turkey are employing around 100,000 Turks, who would be the sufferer
of any severe blow to French firms.
Turkish officials said that they are waiting for the last signature to
come in, still cherishing hope that the bill will go down the drain
once 60 French lawmakers brave a possible backlash and appeal it at
the French constitutional court.
In France, even if a bill has been approved by the Senate, it can
still be appealed to the constitutional court if a large number of
parliamentarians file for it. The decision lies with the court to
decide whether the bill is compatible with French law or not. Turkey
believes the chances in striking down the bill in the constitutional
court are high.
"The number of French politicians gathering to take the bill to the
constitutional court increases every day," Necipoglu said, adding
that the number of opponents to the bill has exceeded 30 on Thursday
and could reach the required 60 soon.
A French Senate Commission of Laws has already announced its opinion
that the bill violates freedom of expression, but its non- binding
advice was disregarded by the French Senate at the vote.
Sarkozy's signature, however, is largely considered a formality, and
a refusal from Sarkozy to sign the bill into effect is negligible,
as he was the driving force behind the bill in the first place in
order to win the support of the country's 500,000 ethnic Armenians
in the upcoming presidential election in May, Turkish observers said.
Sarkozy's signature needs to come within a 15-day period after the
bill's passage in the Senate, and experts believe Turkey is buying
time to reassess the situation by saying they will wait until the
last moment to come up with their "new and permanent" measures.
In December last year, when the lower house of the French Parliament
approved the bill and presented it to the Senate, Turkey withdrew
its ambassador to France for consultations and froze all military
and economic ties with France, suspending bilateral meetings, while
stopping short of asking the French ambassador to leave Turkey.
Turkey says the effects of sanctions this time, if enacted, would be
permanent, and the country is serious about responding to Sarkozy,
who is treated by Turkish officials as an obstacle on Turkey's path
to the European Union membership, experts say.
Turkey's big progress in recent years have been bothering big powers
like France, said Umut Deniz Oncel, a Turkish scholar, in a recent
analysis article written for the Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies.
"What Turkey can do is take rational steps," Oncel said, suggesting
Ankara to create grounds for dialogues with Turkey's Armenians and win
their hearts. Once Turkey is free of its internal prejudices and has
made peace within itself, it will then be able to fend off external
accusations and move on, he added.
Xinhua General News Service
January 29, 2012 Sunday 7:25 AM EST
China
Turkey delayed the releasing of sanction measures towards France over
its approval of a "Armenian genocide" bill, arousing soaring debates
of Turkey's dilemma among experts.
The French Senate voted last Monday 127 to 86 in favor of the draft
bill after hours of debate, making it illegal to deny as " genocide"
the killing of Armenians by Ottoman Turks in 1915. The bill, waiting
to be signed by French President Nicolas Sarkozy, has been passed
by the French National Assembly, the lower house of the parliament,
on Dec. 22 last year.
"This bill is part of a larger wave of rising extreme-right opinion in
Europe, including in France, against non-Europeans, including Turkey,"
Cinar Ozen, an academic at Ankara University, was quoted by local
media as saying on Sunday.
Turkey vowed to slap Paris with harsh sanctions after its approval
of the bill. While claiming the bill was "null and void" to Turkey,
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Tuesday that
Turkish leaders are "waiting with patience to see how the process
will go on" before presenting action plan against France, adding that
"if We decide to implement those measures, there will be no step back."
However, possible sanctions on France will be a double-edged sword,
Turkish newspaper Today's Zaman quoted experts as saying on Sunday.
Although there are little room left for Turkey to impose sanctions
economically as both Turkey and France are WTO members, experts
believe it is not uncommon in Turkish society for citizens to mobilize
through the use of emails or social networks and have their say in
politics through the use of their only means of intervention, which
is disrupting business.
When the French Senate passed into law in 2001 the recognition of the
incidents of 1915 as genocide, French exports to Turkey saw almost a
40 percent decline, said Zeynep Necipoglu, head of the Turkish-French
Chamber of Commerce.
"Economic measures would eventually return as damage to Turkey, "
Necipoglu warned as she elaborated that the French firms operating in
Turkey are employing around 100,000 Turks, who would be the sufferer
of any severe blow to French firms.
Turkish officials said that they are waiting for the last signature to
come in, still cherishing hope that the bill will go down the drain
once 60 French lawmakers brave a possible backlash and appeal it at
the French constitutional court.
In France, even if a bill has been approved by the Senate, it can
still be appealed to the constitutional court if a large number of
parliamentarians file for it. The decision lies with the court to
decide whether the bill is compatible with French law or not. Turkey
believes the chances in striking down the bill in the constitutional
court are high.
"The number of French politicians gathering to take the bill to the
constitutional court increases every day," Necipoglu said, adding
that the number of opponents to the bill has exceeded 30 on Thursday
and could reach the required 60 soon.
A French Senate Commission of Laws has already announced its opinion
that the bill violates freedom of expression, but its non- binding
advice was disregarded by the French Senate at the vote.
Sarkozy's signature, however, is largely considered a formality, and
a refusal from Sarkozy to sign the bill into effect is negligible,
as he was the driving force behind the bill in the first place in
order to win the support of the country's 500,000 ethnic Armenians
in the upcoming presidential election in May, Turkish observers said.
Sarkozy's signature needs to come within a 15-day period after the
bill's passage in the Senate, and experts believe Turkey is buying
time to reassess the situation by saying they will wait until the
last moment to come up with their "new and permanent" measures.
In December last year, when the lower house of the French Parliament
approved the bill and presented it to the Senate, Turkey withdrew
its ambassador to France for consultations and froze all military
and economic ties with France, suspending bilateral meetings, while
stopping short of asking the French ambassador to leave Turkey.
Turkey says the effects of sanctions this time, if enacted, would be
permanent, and the country is serious about responding to Sarkozy,
who is treated by Turkish officials as an obstacle on Turkey's path
to the European Union membership, experts say.
Turkey's big progress in recent years have been bothering big powers
like France, said Umut Deniz Oncel, a Turkish scholar, in a recent
analysis article written for the Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies.
"What Turkey can do is take rational steps," Oncel said, suggesting
Ankara to create grounds for dialogues with Turkey's Armenians and win
their hearts. Once Turkey is free of its internal prejudices and has
made peace within itself, it will then be able to fend off external
accusations and move on, he added.