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ETHNIC ENCLAVE: NEW RAILWAY BYPASSING ARMENIA WILL FREEZE ARMENIA'S "NORTHERN ROAD" PROSPECTS
By Aris Ghazinyan
ArmeniaNow
06.02.12 | 15:15
An official announcement has been made that
Baku-Tbilisi-Akhalkalaki-Kars railway connecting the Azeri coast of the
Caspian Sea with Turkey will be put into operation in October of 2013.
How will that affect Armenia?
First of all, the rehabilitation project of Gyumri (Armenia)-Kars
(Turkey) railroad, that could connect Baku with Ankara through Tbilisi
and Yerevan, will be frozen for a very long time.
Despite the fact that Azerbaijan and Armenia do not have railway
communication, Baku has a railway to Tbilisi and Tbilisi - to Yerevan.
It is this railroad stretching along the current Armenian-Turkish
border that has a station in Gyumri.
Putting into operation the new railroad would make Armenia's possible
de-blocking even more problematic and unrealistic.
The other aspect of it is the fact that the construction of the
Samtskhe-Javakheti section of the railway will engage a great number
of Turkish and Meskhetian-Turkish workers. The problem is that this
Georgian region with a large Armenian population is Armenia's only
exit to the outer world through "a Christian road".
Either Turkish or Azeri settlements lie all along the perimeter of
Armenia's and Nagorno Karabakh's borders, be it Iran from the south,
Georgia from the north and, of course, Azerbaijan and Turkey from
the east and west of Armenian, respectively.
Hence, on the ethnographic map Armenia will find itself in an enclave,
which is potentially dangerous. Inflow of Turks and Meskhetian Turks
in Samtskhe-Javakheti is a matter of serious concerns for both the
Armenian population of the region and a number of political parties
and non-governmental organizations in Armenia.
Another "blow at Armenia" will be the illusory prospect of
establishing railway communication with Russia - Armenia's main
strategic partner. The possible exploitation of the old railroad
Tbilisi-Gyumri-Yerevan envisaged restoring communication along the
Abkhazian section of the Trans-Caucasian Railway as well, which would
connect Yerevan with Russia.
However, with the new Baku-Tbilisi-Akhalkalaki-Kars railway, there
won't be need for the "northern road".
If viewed globally, Kars-Gyumri Tbilisi option would be more
preferable to Turkey. First of all, it would become a gesture of
goodwill towards Armenia that Turkey could show the international
community. And besides, it wouldn't have to spend half a billion
dollars on building Kars-Akhalkalaki section.
But, Turkey has more important interests, one of which is laying a
safe and stable railway connection between Baku and Ankara (obviously
to Ankara it cannot be considered "safe and stable" if it passes
through Armenia). And, most importantly, Turkey wants to become the
main transit corridor between the European Union and Central Asia
with the Caspian Basin.
The coming year promises to be full of strong sentiments over this
issue both in Georgia and Armenia.
By Aris Ghazinyan
ArmeniaNow
06.02.12 | 15:15
An official announcement has been made that
Baku-Tbilisi-Akhalkalaki-Kars railway connecting the Azeri coast of the
Caspian Sea with Turkey will be put into operation in October of 2013.
How will that affect Armenia?
First of all, the rehabilitation project of Gyumri (Armenia)-Kars
(Turkey) railroad, that could connect Baku with Ankara through Tbilisi
and Yerevan, will be frozen for a very long time.
Despite the fact that Azerbaijan and Armenia do not have railway
communication, Baku has a railway to Tbilisi and Tbilisi - to Yerevan.
It is this railroad stretching along the current Armenian-Turkish
border that has a station in Gyumri.
Putting into operation the new railroad would make Armenia's possible
de-blocking even more problematic and unrealistic.
The other aspect of it is the fact that the construction of the
Samtskhe-Javakheti section of the railway will engage a great number
of Turkish and Meskhetian-Turkish workers. The problem is that this
Georgian region with a large Armenian population is Armenia's only
exit to the outer world through "a Christian road".
Either Turkish or Azeri settlements lie all along the perimeter of
Armenia's and Nagorno Karabakh's borders, be it Iran from the south,
Georgia from the north and, of course, Azerbaijan and Turkey from
the east and west of Armenian, respectively.
Hence, on the ethnographic map Armenia will find itself in an enclave,
which is potentially dangerous. Inflow of Turks and Meskhetian Turks
in Samtskhe-Javakheti is a matter of serious concerns for both the
Armenian population of the region and a number of political parties
and non-governmental organizations in Armenia.
Another "blow at Armenia" will be the illusory prospect of
establishing railway communication with Russia - Armenia's main
strategic partner. The possible exploitation of the old railroad
Tbilisi-Gyumri-Yerevan envisaged restoring communication along the
Abkhazian section of the Trans-Caucasian Railway as well, which would
connect Yerevan with Russia.
However, with the new Baku-Tbilisi-Akhalkalaki-Kars railway, there
won't be need for the "northern road".
If viewed globally, Kars-Gyumri Tbilisi option would be more
preferable to Turkey. First of all, it would become a gesture of
goodwill towards Armenia that Turkey could show the international
community. And besides, it wouldn't have to spend half a billion
dollars on building Kars-Akhalkalaki section.
But, Turkey has more important interests, one of which is laying a
safe and stable railway connection between Baku and Ankara (obviously
to Ankara it cannot be considered "safe and stable" if it passes
through Armenia). And, most importantly, Turkey wants to become the
main transit corridor between the European Union and Central Asia
with the Caspian Basin.
The coming year promises to be full of strong sentiments over this
issue both in Georgia and Armenia.