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US Expert: "It Is Unlikely To See Any Scenario Where The Armenian Is

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  • US Expert: "It Is Unlikely To See Any Scenario Where The Armenian Is

    US EXPERT: "IT IS UNLIKELY TO SEE ANY SCENARIO WHERE THE ARMENIAN ISSUE WOULD TAKE PRECEDENCE AND THE US COULD RISK ALIENATING TURKEY AS A KEY ALLY IN THE REGION" - INTERVIEW

    APA
    Feb 10 2012
    Azerbaijan

    Cenk Sidar: "If the bill comes into effect, it will force France
    out of the equation, and most likely terminate the Nagorno-Karabakh
    adjustment process"

    Washington. Isabel Levine - APA. APA's correspondent's interview
    with Cenk Sidar, Managing Director of the Washington, DC-based Sidar
    Global Advisors

    - Armenia has pushed on the French Senate to pass a bill prohibiting
    a denial to call the 1915 events "genocide". This is not the first,
    and probably not the last time, Armenia is doing something like this.

    Where will these steps take Armenia in the end?

    - It is extremely difficult to understand the reasoning behind
    Armenia's insistence on such negative bills that will only eventually
    weaken the Armenian cause, as well as the country's interests in
    the region and the world. The bill is a clear violation of individual
    freedoms and the European Convention on Human Rights, and I believe the
    international community is well aware of this. Given the importance
    attached to the issue by the Armenian diaspora, it is only natural
    to see that they consider the decision of the French Senate as a
    victory. However, I believe such a stance will hurt the stabilization
    and development prospects of Armenia, which suffers from poverty
    and underdevelopment. On the other hand, it is difficult to envision
    how Armenia could survive without the financial support of people of
    the diaspora, and thus it would be difficult for the country to move
    away from the diaspora's line of thinking. In short, attempts like
    these put Armenia in a very difficult position and I think they will
    eventually hurt the country's well-being. Legal steps such as this
    also hurt freedom of speech and limit academic or social discussions,
    and they are destined to backfire in the end. The credibility of the
    Armenian cause will diminish among the rational actors who recognize
    these limitations.

    - After practically slapping Turkey in the face with the French
    Senate decision, do you think Armenia has a chance for a possible
    reconciliation with Turkey in future?

    - It is obvious that the Armenian side is not interested in
    reconciliation, and has closed the doors long before this. The Armenian
    lobby's global campaign will just officially end the process, and kill
    any prospects for future reconciliation. Turkey is not the actor that
    will lose the most from the termination of this prospect.

    Given its economic situation and its difficult geographic position,
    landlocked between three countries, Armenia clearly has more stakes
    in the Armenian-Turkish reconciliation. Therefore, it is not easy to
    understand why it insists on a global campaign that is certain to
    kill any prospects of reconciliation. I don't predict any serious
    move in the US Congress for the "genocide" resolution, even though
    the Armenian lobby will push hard, as it has become their only cause
    for existence. The bill will undermine the protocols between Armenia
    and Turkey, as it will limit their ability to conduct open inquiry and
    debate. The Armenian government and diaspora will most probably step
    up their campaign to get international recognition of the "genocide"
    as the 100th anniversary of the incident approaches in 2015. This will
    put more pressure on Turkish officials to come up with new policies
    to handle this. However, it is difficult to see a scenario where
    the Turkish side could come up with anything that will satisfy the
    Armenian side.

    - What would you suggest the United States to do regarding
    Turkey-Armenia rapprochement?

    - The US would surely prefer to see an improvement in Turkey-Armenia,
    relations but it will not risk alienating Turkey, an important ally
    in a region where the US has considerable stakes. I don't expect
    to see any serious US involvement at least until late 2012 in the
    reconciliation process. Especially now that the tension is high in the
    wake of the French National Assembly's bill, I expect the US to stand
    aside and see what will happen. Given Turkey's strategic position
    as a key US ally in the region, it is unlikely to see any scenario
    where the Armenian issue would take precedence and the US could
    risk alienating a key ally in the region. As enough number of French
    senators agreed to take the bill to the French Constitutional Court,
    the court will now consider if the law is constitutional. Washington
    will presumably wait to see how this plays out.

    - France is a co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, and now its Senate
    accepts such a bill, what about Karabakh then? Will the bill affect
    the conflict adjustment anyhow?

    - If the bill comes into effect, it will force France out of the
    equation, and most likely terminate the Nagorno-Karabakh adjustment
    process. It will also result in a further improvement in Azeri-Turkish
    relations. All in all, the bill, while recognized by the Armenian
    diaspora as a victory, will be detrimental to Armenian interests in the
    Nagorno-Karabakh process. It is likely to favor the Azeri position with
    regard to Nagorno-Karabakh, and further alienate Armenia in the region.

    - Do you see Azerbaijan and Turkey as working together against Armenian
    propaganda in this case? How?

    - Azerbaijan could help Turkey in resisting the campaign of the
    Armenian lobby, but the Azeri diaspora in the US is not in a position
    to push for Turkey's position. The Azeri diaspora lacks the financial
    means and organizational skills of its Armenian counterpart, and its
    members are having problems even raising issues that are directly
    related to Azerbaijan in the US. Therefore, it is difficult to see
    how the Azeri lobby can provide any significant support to Turkey in
    resisting the campaign of the Armenian lobby on passing similar bills
    in other countries. Given Azerbaijan's well-known position in regard
    to Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, it will be difficult
    for Azerbaijan to play an important role. However, I expect both
    governments to work together and the communities to grow closer.

    - What are Azerbaijan and Turkey's futures in terms of integrating
    into the European community?

    - The current trend of parliamentary interference in history will
    slow down the integration of Azerbaijan and Turkey into the European
    structures. Azerbaijan is scarcely integrated in European structures
    anyway to begin with, and the Turkish public already has quite a
    low opinion of the EU. Clearly, this has gravely damaged Turks'
    perceptions of France. People in both countries will further lose
    their trust and confidence in the objectivity of European actors. It
    will be difficult for Western countries to persuade Turks and Azeris
    that they are impartial in light of these developments.



    From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
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