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US EXPERT: "IT IS UNLIKELY TO SEE ANY SCENARIO WHERE THE ARMENIAN ISSUE WOULD TAKE PRECEDENCE AND THE US COULD RISK ALIENATING TURKEY AS A KEY ALLY IN THE REGION" - INTERVIEW
APA
Feb 10 2012
Azerbaijan
Cenk Sidar: "If the bill comes into effect, it will force France
out of the equation, and most likely terminate the Nagorno-Karabakh
adjustment process"
Washington. Isabel Levine - APA. APA's correspondent's interview
with Cenk Sidar, Managing Director of the Washington, DC-based Sidar
Global Advisors
- Armenia has pushed on the French Senate to pass a bill prohibiting
a denial to call the 1915 events "genocide". This is not the first,
and probably not the last time, Armenia is doing something like this.
Where will these steps take Armenia in the end?
- It is extremely difficult to understand the reasoning behind
Armenia's insistence on such negative bills that will only eventually
weaken the Armenian cause, as well as the country's interests in
the region and the world. The bill is a clear violation of individual
freedoms and the European Convention on Human Rights, and I believe the
international community is well aware of this. Given the importance
attached to the issue by the Armenian diaspora, it is only natural
to see that they consider the decision of the French Senate as a
victory. However, I believe such a stance will hurt the stabilization
and development prospects of Armenia, which suffers from poverty
and underdevelopment. On the other hand, it is difficult to envision
how Armenia could survive without the financial support of people of
the diaspora, and thus it would be difficult for the country to move
away from the diaspora's line of thinking. In short, attempts like
these put Armenia in a very difficult position and I think they will
eventually hurt the country's well-being. Legal steps such as this
also hurt freedom of speech and limit academic or social discussions,
and they are destined to backfire in the end. The credibility of the
Armenian cause will diminish among the rational actors who recognize
these limitations.
- After practically slapping Turkey in the face with the French
Senate decision, do you think Armenia has a chance for a possible
reconciliation with Turkey in future?
- It is obvious that the Armenian side is not interested in
reconciliation, and has closed the doors long before this. The Armenian
lobby's global campaign will just officially end the process, and kill
any prospects for future reconciliation. Turkey is not the actor that
will lose the most from the termination of this prospect.
Given its economic situation and its difficult geographic position,
landlocked between three countries, Armenia clearly has more stakes
in the Armenian-Turkish reconciliation. Therefore, it is not easy to
understand why it insists on a global campaign that is certain to
kill any prospects of reconciliation. I don't predict any serious
move in the US Congress for the "genocide" resolution, even though
the Armenian lobby will push hard, as it has become their only cause
for existence. The bill will undermine the protocols between Armenia
and Turkey, as it will limit their ability to conduct open inquiry and
debate. The Armenian government and diaspora will most probably step
up their campaign to get international recognition of the "genocide"
as the 100th anniversary of the incident approaches in 2015. This will
put more pressure on Turkish officials to come up with new policies
to handle this. However, it is difficult to see a scenario where
the Turkish side could come up with anything that will satisfy the
Armenian side.
- What would you suggest the United States to do regarding
Turkey-Armenia rapprochement?
- The US would surely prefer to see an improvement in Turkey-Armenia,
relations but it will not risk alienating Turkey, an important ally
in a region where the US has considerable stakes. I don't expect
to see any serious US involvement at least until late 2012 in the
reconciliation process. Especially now that the tension is high in the
wake of the French National Assembly's bill, I expect the US to stand
aside and see what will happen. Given Turkey's strategic position
as a key US ally in the region, it is unlikely to see any scenario
where the Armenian issue would take precedence and the US could
risk alienating a key ally in the region. As enough number of French
senators agreed to take the bill to the French Constitutional Court,
the court will now consider if the law is constitutional. Washington
will presumably wait to see how this plays out.
- France is a co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, and now its Senate
accepts such a bill, what about Karabakh then? Will the bill affect
the conflict adjustment anyhow?
- If the bill comes into effect, it will force France out of the
equation, and most likely terminate the Nagorno-Karabakh adjustment
process. It will also result in a further improvement in Azeri-Turkish
relations. All in all, the bill, while recognized by the Armenian
diaspora as a victory, will be detrimental to Armenian interests in the
Nagorno-Karabakh process. It is likely to favor the Azeri position with
regard to Nagorno-Karabakh, and further alienate Armenia in the region.
- Do you see Azerbaijan and Turkey as working together against Armenian
propaganda in this case? How?
- Azerbaijan could help Turkey in resisting the campaign of the
Armenian lobby, but the Azeri diaspora in the US is not in a position
to push for Turkey's position. The Azeri diaspora lacks the financial
means and organizational skills of its Armenian counterpart, and its
members are having problems even raising issues that are directly
related to Azerbaijan in the US. Therefore, it is difficult to see
how the Azeri lobby can provide any significant support to Turkey in
resisting the campaign of the Armenian lobby on passing similar bills
in other countries. Given Azerbaijan's well-known position in regard
to Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, it will be difficult
for Azerbaijan to play an important role. However, I expect both
governments to work together and the communities to grow closer.
- What are Azerbaijan and Turkey's futures in terms of integrating
into the European community?
- The current trend of parliamentary interference in history will
slow down the integration of Azerbaijan and Turkey into the European
structures. Azerbaijan is scarcely integrated in European structures
anyway to begin with, and the Turkish public already has quite a
low opinion of the EU. Clearly, this has gravely damaged Turks'
perceptions of France. People in both countries will further lose
their trust and confidence in the objectivity of European actors. It
will be difficult for Western countries to persuade Turks and Azeris
that they are impartial in light of these developments.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
APA
Feb 10 2012
Azerbaijan
Cenk Sidar: "If the bill comes into effect, it will force France
out of the equation, and most likely terminate the Nagorno-Karabakh
adjustment process"
Washington. Isabel Levine - APA. APA's correspondent's interview
with Cenk Sidar, Managing Director of the Washington, DC-based Sidar
Global Advisors
- Armenia has pushed on the French Senate to pass a bill prohibiting
a denial to call the 1915 events "genocide". This is not the first,
and probably not the last time, Armenia is doing something like this.
Where will these steps take Armenia in the end?
- It is extremely difficult to understand the reasoning behind
Armenia's insistence on such negative bills that will only eventually
weaken the Armenian cause, as well as the country's interests in
the region and the world. The bill is a clear violation of individual
freedoms and the European Convention on Human Rights, and I believe the
international community is well aware of this. Given the importance
attached to the issue by the Armenian diaspora, it is only natural
to see that they consider the decision of the French Senate as a
victory. However, I believe such a stance will hurt the stabilization
and development prospects of Armenia, which suffers from poverty
and underdevelopment. On the other hand, it is difficult to envision
how Armenia could survive without the financial support of people of
the diaspora, and thus it would be difficult for the country to move
away from the diaspora's line of thinking. In short, attempts like
these put Armenia in a very difficult position and I think they will
eventually hurt the country's well-being. Legal steps such as this
also hurt freedom of speech and limit academic or social discussions,
and they are destined to backfire in the end. The credibility of the
Armenian cause will diminish among the rational actors who recognize
these limitations.
- After practically slapping Turkey in the face with the French
Senate decision, do you think Armenia has a chance for a possible
reconciliation with Turkey in future?
- It is obvious that the Armenian side is not interested in
reconciliation, and has closed the doors long before this. The Armenian
lobby's global campaign will just officially end the process, and kill
any prospects for future reconciliation. Turkey is not the actor that
will lose the most from the termination of this prospect.
Given its economic situation and its difficult geographic position,
landlocked between three countries, Armenia clearly has more stakes
in the Armenian-Turkish reconciliation. Therefore, it is not easy to
understand why it insists on a global campaign that is certain to
kill any prospects of reconciliation. I don't predict any serious
move in the US Congress for the "genocide" resolution, even though
the Armenian lobby will push hard, as it has become their only cause
for existence. The bill will undermine the protocols between Armenia
and Turkey, as it will limit their ability to conduct open inquiry and
debate. The Armenian government and diaspora will most probably step
up their campaign to get international recognition of the "genocide"
as the 100th anniversary of the incident approaches in 2015. This will
put more pressure on Turkish officials to come up with new policies
to handle this. However, it is difficult to see a scenario where
the Turkish side could come up with anything that will satisfy the
Armenian side.
- What would you suggest the United States to do regarding
Turkey-Armenia rapprochement?
- The US would surely prefer to see an improvement in Turkey-Armenia,
relations but it will not risk alienating Turkey, an important ally
in a region where the US has considerable stakes. I don't expect
to see any serious US involvement at least until late 2012 in the
reconciliation process. Especially now that the tension is high in the
wake of the French National Assembly's bill, I expect the US to stand
aside and see what will happen. Given Turkey's strategic position
as a key US ally in the region, it is unlikely to see any scenario
where the Armenian issue would take precedence and the US could
risk alienating a key ally in the region. As enough number of French
senators agreed to take the bill to the French Constitutional Court,
the court will now consider if the law is constitutional. Washington
will presumably wait to see how this plays out.
- France is a co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, and now its Senate
accepts such a bill, what about Karabakh then? Will the bill affect
the conflict adjustment anyhow?
- If the bill comes into effect, it will force France out of the
equation, and most likely terminate the Nagorno-Karabakh adjustment
process. It will also result in a further improvement in Azeri-Turkish
relations. All in all, the bill, while recognized by the Armenian
diaspora as a victory, will be detrimental to Armenian interests in the
Nagorno-Karabakh process. It is likely to favor the Azeri position with
regard to Nagorno-Karabakh, and further alienate Armenia in the region.
- Do you see Azerbaijan and Turkey as working together against Armenian
propaganda in this case? How?
- Azerbaijan could help Turkey in resisting the campaign of the
Armenian lobby, but the Azeri diaspora in the US is not in a position
to push for Turkey's position. The Azeri diaspora lacks the financial
means and organizational skills of its Armenian counterpart, and its
members are having problems even raising issues that are directly
related to Azerbaijan in the US. Therefore, it is difficult to see
how the Azeri lobby can provide any significant support to Turkey in
resisting the campaign of the Armenian lobby on passing similar bills
in other countries. Given Azerbaijan's well-known position in regard
to Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, it will be difficult
for Azerbaijan to play an important role. However, I expect both
governments to work together and the communities to grow closer.
- What are Azerbaijan and Turkey's futures in terms of integrating
into the European community?
- The current trend of parliamentary interference in history will
slow down the integration of Azerbaijan and Turkey into the European
structures. Azerbaijan is scarcely integrated in European structures
anyway to begin with, and the Turkish public already has quite a
low opinion of the EU. Clearly, this has gravely damaged Turks'
perceptions of France. People in both countries will further lose
their trust and confidence in the objectivity of European actors. It
will be difficult for Western countries to persuade Turks and Azeris
that they are impartial in light of these developments.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress