Tweet
PRESIDENT 'DIES', LONG LIVE HIS HEIR
HAKOB BADALYAN
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments25151.html
Published: 11:59:53 - 16/02/2012
The main target of the domestic processes is the presidential elections
of 2017-2018 rather than the parliamentary election of 2012, or even
the presidential election of 2013 when the president of Armenia will
change. Only a force majeure may hinder this, such as the resignation
of Serzh Sargsyan. For the time being, there is no such possibility in
sight, especially after the successful tryout of the "good election"
mechanism in Hrazdan which was approved by the West.
Apparently, this prospect has been accepted by Serzh Sargsyan's main
opponents or rivals, the Bargavach Hayastan Party and the Armenian
National Congress, because the forces are preparing for the 2017-2018
cycle, pursuing their own position. The Congress needs to keep the
role of the leading opposition force, preventing the emergence of
an equal opponent there, while the Bargavach Hayastan Party needs
to keep the role of the second force in government which does not
care how many seats it will have in parliament but needs to keep the
resource it possesses as a force in power.
In the present economic and political situation neither the Bargavach
Hayastan Party, nor the Armenian National Congress have winner
candidates to run vs Serzh Sargsyan in 2013. Gagik Tsarukyan's
reputation has a different structure, and he is able to defeat Serzh
Sargsyan and the Republican Party in the parliamentary elections but as
a presidential candidate he is perceived differently. The society uses
different criteria for the parliamentary and presidential elections.
As to the Armenian National Congress, Levon Ter-Petrosyan is still
there but he is no longer identical with Ter-Petrosyan in 2008 and
will not be able to produce the same effect as in 2008. Ter-Petrosyan
has lost, and the candidates who have lost in Armenia have no second
chance, even though they are defeated by way of the lack of honesty
and lawfulness. Moreover, after losing the presidential election,
Ter-Petrosyan lost several other local elections, and the latest was
in Hrazdan Town. Of these elections he was personally participating
only in the Yerevan election but the Congress is associated with
his name anyway, so the failures of the Congress are the failures of
Ter-Petrosyan's tactics and strategy.
The Congress needs a new candidate, and this structure will not be
able to counteract to Serzh Sargsyan unless this problem is solved. In
addition, some processes in the Congress are evidence that the solution
is underway, and Ter-Petrosyan's heir is being sought for, and even a
race might have started. In addition, the heir will be the opponent
of Serzh Sargsyan's heir because Serzh Sargsyan will have to leave
in 2018.
For 2013, Robert Kocharyan remains but his problems are not fewer
than the Congress'. The point is that Kocharyan does not have as much
public support as the Congress, not even half of it. Kocharyan will
need to rely heavily on support from the government, and from foreign
political centers which are interested in the political situation in
Armenia in the context of regional and geopolitical developments.
These centers are few - Washington, Moscow, maybe Paris or Brussels
or Paris and Brussels. It is obvious that three of them express
their intention to continue work with Serzh Sargsyan. Moscow has
not expressed a critical dissatisfaction with Sargsyan. And without
external support Robert Kocharyan will not be able to return solely
thanks to internal support because the people in the government
of Armenia will naturally inquire whether he will incur trouble
or security.
Apparently, this is the reason why Robert Kocharyan pushes Vartan
Oskanian into the game rather than enters into it himself. It is
evidence to a long-term game. In other words, Kocharyan is preparing
his own heir, and Vartan Oskanian will be the opponent of Serzh
Sargsyan's heir.
In this case, however, the problem for the society will be the
persistence of the main competition between 20-year-old actors, simply
by way of their heirs. That will partly mark the end of the period
of transition in Armenia. The role of the society is essential, the
capacity of the civil society to have the heirs of the three presidents
serve the society and the state rather than their presidents.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
HAKOB BADALYAN
Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/comments25151.html
Published: 11:59:53 - 16/02/2012
The main target of the domestic processes is the presidential elections
of 2017-2018 rather than the parliamentary election of 2012, or even
the presidential election of 2013 when the president of Armenia will
change. Only a force majeure may hinder this, such as the resignation
of Serzh Sargsyan. For the time being, there is no such possibility in
sight, especially after the successful tryout of the "good election"
mechanism in Hrazdan which was approved by the West.
Apparently, this prospect has been accepted by Serzh Sargsyan's main
opponents or rivals, the Bargavach Hayastan Party and the Armenian
National Congress, because the forces are preparing for the 2017-2018
cycle, pursuing their own position. The Congress needs to keep the
role of the leading opposition force, preventing the emergence of
an equal opponent there, while the Bargavach Hayastan Party needs
to keep the role of the second force in government which does not
care how many seats it will have in parliament but needs to keep the
resource it possesses as a force in power.
In the present economic and political situation neither the Bargavach
Hayastan Party, nor the Armenian National Congress have winner
candidates to run vs Serzh Sargsyan in 2013. Gagik Tsarukyan's
reputation has a different structure, and he is able to defeat Serzh
Sargsyan and the Republican Party in the parliamentary elections but as
a presidential candidate he is perceived differently. The society uses
different criteria for the parliamentary and presidential elections.
As to the Armenian National Congress, Levon Ter-Petrosyan is still
there but he is no longer identical with Ter-Petrosyan in 2008 and
will not be able to produce the same effect as in 2008. Ter-Petrosyan
has lost, and the candidates who have lost in Armenia have no second
chance, even though they are defeated by way of the lack of honesty
and lawfulness. Moreover, after losing the presidential election,
Ter-Petrosyan lost several other local elections, and the latest was
in Hrazdan Town. Of these elections he was personally participating
only in the Yerevan election but the Congress is associated with
his name anyway, so the failures of the Congress are the failures of
Ter-Petrosyan's tactics and strategy.
The Congress needs a new candidate, and this structure will not be
able to counteract to Serzh Sargsyan unless this problem is solved. In
addition, some processes in the Congress are evidence that the solution
is underway, and Ter-Petrosyan's heir is being sought for, and even a
race might have started. In addition, the heir will be the opponent
of Serzh Sargsyan's heir because Serzh Sargsyan will have to leave
in 2018.
For 2013, Robert Kocharyan remains but his problems are not fewer
than the Congress'. The point is that Kocharyan does not have as much
public support as the Congress, not even half of it. Kocharyan will
need to rely heavily on support from the government, and from foreign
political centers which are interested in the political situation in
Armenia in the context of regional and geopolitical developments.
These centers are few - Washington, Moscow, maybe Paris or Brussels
or Paris and Brussels. It is obvious that three of them express
their intention to continue work with Serzh Sargsyan. Moscow has
not expressed a critical dissatisfaction with Sargsyan. And without
external support Robert Kocharyan will not be able to return solely
thanks to internal support because the people in the government
of Armenia will naturally inquire whether he will incur trouble
or security.
Apparently, this is the reason why Robert Kocharyan pushes Vartan
Oskanian into the game rather than enters into it himself. It is
evidence to a long-term game. In other words, Kocharyan is preparing
his own heir, and Vartan Oskanian will be the opponent of Serzh
Sargsyan's heir.
In this case, however, the problem for the society will be the
persistence of the main competition between 20-year-old actors, simply
by way of their heirs. That will partly mark the end of the period
of transition in Armenia. The role of the society is essential, the
capacity of the civil society to have the heirs of the three presidents
serve the society and the state rather than their presidents.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress