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NEW OPPORTUNITIES ON NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT SETTLEMENT UNLIKELY TO APPEAR SOON
Trend
Feb 17 2012
Azerbaijan
It does not worth expecting new opportunities to resolve the
Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict for the next two years,
editor in chief of the Bulletin of the Caucasus and deputy dean of
the History department of Moscow State University Alexey Vlasov says.
Only after the presidential elections in Azerbaijan and Armenia one
can say that "new opportunities" appear in the conflict settlement
in these conditions, Vlasov told media in Baku.
The conflict between the two South Caucasus countries began in 1988
when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Armenian
armed forces have occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan since 1992,
including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and 7 surrounding districts.
Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a ceasefire agreement in 1994. The
co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group - Russia, France, and the U.S. -
are currently holding the peace negotiations.
Armenia has not yet implemented the U.N. Security Council's four
resolutions on the liberation of the Nagorno-Karabakh and the
surrounding regions.
"The last meeting between the presidents of three countries
(Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia) in Sochi (January 23) was of protocol
character," he said. "President Medvedev said goodbye to the leaders
of Armenia and Azerbaijan. I think those thanked him for the efforts
made by the Russian President since 2008 despite all the difficulties,
made to reach some compromise between Armenia and Azerbaijan."
Vlasov said that originally the expectations of Russia's role in
the conflict settlement were still artificially high. "After Russia
showed the operation in South Ossetia in 2008 as a peace-enforcement
with respect to Georgia, it seemed that it is possible to force to
a dialogue by the negotiation process, rather than by force and the
situation will move from the dead point in 2-3 years."
He said that the planned work failed because of the factor of the
internal political character and especially Armenia.
Vlasov said that there is a very complex game between the various
political forces - Republicans and "Prosperous Armenia" in Armenia
today. There are parties in Armenia, which categorically deny the
possibility of concessions. There are those which are more inclined,
at least, to discuss a compromise, he said.
"There is a certain underlying theme associated with the fact what
Russia will do after March 4, 2012," he said. "I think Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict will not be among one of the first priorities for Putin,
as well all the issues relating to Russia's foreign policy in
a certain period, as the new president must first be engaged in
domestic affairs."
The elections of the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents are expected
to be held in 2013.
"Nobody says that one can settle for one year," he said. "To move
from a dead point is important from Russia's position as a mediator,"
he said.
Trend
Feb 17 2012
Azerbaijan
It does not worth expecting new opportunities to resolve the
Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict for the next two years,
editor in chief of the Bulletin of the Caucasus and deputy dean of
the History department of Moscow State University Alexey Vlasov says.
Only after the presidential elections in Azerbaijan and Armenia one
can say that "new opportunities" appear in the conflict settlement
in these conditions, Vlasov told media in Baku.
The conflict between the two South Caucasus countries began in 1988
when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Armenian
armed forces have occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan since 1992,
including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and 7 surrounding districts.
Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a ceasefire agreement in 1994. The
co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group - Russia, France, and the U.S. -
are currently holding the peace negotiations.
Armenia has not yet implemented the U.N. Security Council's four
resolutions on the liberation of the Nagorno-Karabakh and the
surrounding regions.
"The last meeting between the presidents of three countries
(Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia) in Sochi (January 23) was of protocol
character," he said. "President Medvedev said goodbye to the leaders
of Armenia and Azerbaijan. I think those thanked him for the efforts
made by the Russian President since 2008 despite all the difficulties,
made to reach some compromise between Armenia and Azerbaijan."
Vlasov said that originally the expectations of Russia's role in
the conflict settlement were still artificially high. "After Russia
showed the operation in South Ossetia in 2008 as a peace-enforcement
with respect to Georgia, it seemed that it is possible to force to
a dialogue by the negotiation process, rather than by force and the
situation will move from the dead point in 2-3 years."
He said that the planned work failed because of the factor of the
internal political character and especially Armenia.
Vlasov said that there is a very complex game between the various
political forces - Republicans and "Prosperous Armenia" in Armenia
today. There are parties in Armenia, which categorically deny the
possibility of concessions. There are those which are more inclined,
at least, to discuss a compromise, he said.
"There is a certain underlying theme associated with the fact what
Russia will do after March 4, 2012," he said. "I think Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict will not be among one of the first priorities for Putin,
as well all the issues relating to Russia's foreign policy in
a certain period, as the new president must first be engaged in
domestic affairs."
The elections of the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents are expected
to be held in 2013.
"Nobody says that one can settle for one year," he said. "To move
from a dead point is important from Russia's position as a mediator,"
he said.