Tweet
Georgian Daily
Feb 18 2012
South Caucasus nations fear Iran-Israel war
February 18, 2012
The Middle East and the West aren't the only regions that would be hit
by an Iran-Israel war.
By Nicholas Clayton
TBILISI, Georgia - After two apparent assassination attempts against
Israeli diplomats in the South Caucasus, many fear this fractured and
strategically important region is being pulled into the rising
tensions between the West and Iran.
On Monday, police defused a `magnetic bomb' attached to a car
belonging to a local driver for the Israeli embassy in Georgia. On the
same day, a bomb exploded on an Israeli embassy vehicle in New Dehli,
India, injuring several, including the Israeli defense attaché's wife.
The attempted bombing in Georgia came less than three weeks after the
government of neighboring Azerbaijan announced it had arrested three
men who had been recruited and paid to assassinate the Israeli
ambassador to Azerbaijan and later attack a Jewish school in the
country.
Tehran accused Azerbaijan Monday of aiding Israeli intelligence forces
in assassinating Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, an Iranian nuclear scientist
who was also killed by a bomb magnetically attached to his car in
early January. At the time, a top Iranian official told a local
newspaper that "Iran's reaction will extend beyond the borders and
beyond the region.'
The official added: `None of those who ordered these attacks should
feel safe anywhere.'
All three countries that comprise the South Caucasus - Azerbaijan,
Georgia and Armenia - maintain important relationships with both the
West and Iran. Conflict between these two sides could destabilize the
fragile, but strategically crucial peace in the region.
Azerbaijan: Fears of an Iranian invasion
Azerbaijan is a major supplier of both natural gas and oil for Europe,
and several pipeline projects designed to reduce the EU's energy
dependence on Russia require Georgian territory and Azerbaijani
resources.
The two countries are also key links in the Northern Distribution
Network, a transit route supplying ISAF forces in Afghanistan. Since
Pakistan closed its borders to NATO air and ground transit in November
2011, this route is now the only means for the alliance to get
personnel and materials in and out of Afghanistan.
Since the revelation of the alleged Iranian assassination plot,
Azerbaijan and Iran have been furiously trading accusations. Tehran
has often threatened Azerbaijan with invasion should it allow Western
countries to use its territory in support of an operation against
Iran.
Georgia: Caught in the middle
Georgian authorities, meanwhile, have been cautious to assess blame in
the foiled bombing in its capital, Tbilisi, although Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu quickly pointed to Iran in the attacks.
Shota Utiashvili, head of the Georgian Interior Ministry's analytical
department publicly noted the similarities between the descriptions of
the defused bomb and the one used to kill the Iranian scientist, and
said it was designed to target the car's passengers.
Other top officials have downplayed the link, however, noting that the
bomb was found on the driver's personal car, not an embassy vehicle.
Furthermore, pro-government TV channels have made little mention of
the incident in domestic news broadcasts.
Georgia has cultivated close ties with Tehran since its brief 2008 war
with Russia, signing a visa-free travel agreement with the Islamic
Republic and opening up greater economic, academic and commercial
links in various agreements with the country.
However, Georgia's pro-Western president, Mikheil Saakashvili, has
also placed NATO and EU membership at the forefront of his
foreign-policy agenda, sending as many as 1,700 troops to
Afghanistan's most violent province in support of the alliance's war
effort there. Before the war with Russia, Georgia had also deployed
2,000 soldiers in Iraq.
Armenia: Trying to stick close to Iran
The country perhaps most vulnerable to the shifting circumstances is
Armenia, which relies on Iran for crucial political support and as a
route for about one third of its trade. Due to an ongoing territorial
dispute with Azerbaijan, Armenia's borders with both Azerbaijan and
Turkey have been closed since the early 1990s. It relies on Iran and
Russia - through Georgian territory - for its trade and energy supply.
Analysts in the Armenian capital, Yerevan, worry that a damaged or
preoccupied Iran could reopen its on-again-off-again war with
Azerbaijan over the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Armenia sent its deputy foreign minister to Iran this week,
`reinforcing' its relationship with Tehran `for the sake of
maintaining peace and stability,' according to Armenian state media.
The Russian factor
Meanwhile, Russia has announced it will hold military exercises in the
South Caucasus this year that are unprecedented in scale, involving
not only its units in its own North Caucasus territory, but also
battalions stationed in Armenia and the Georgian breakaway republic of
Abkhazia.
Over the past year, Russian officials have often warned that foreign
intervention in either Syria or Iran could lead to a "wider conflict"
in the region. Viewing the South Caucasus as its traditional buffer
zone against the Middle East, observers say Moscow is now reasserting
its presence in the region.
Stephen Blank, a research professor at the United States Army War
College, told the Asia Times earlier this month that leaders in the
region are now worried they will be pulled into an unpredictable
conflict.
"They are clearly concerned, as are the Russians, about the fact that
they're being dragged into a contingency outside their area that they
don't really have anything to say about," he said.
Source: URL: http://www.globalpost.com/
http://georgiandaily.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=22158&It emid=132
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Feb 18 2012
South Caucasus nations fear Iran-Israel war
February 18, 2012
The Middle East and the West aren't the only regions that would be hit
by an Iran-Israel war.
By Nicholas Clayton
TBILISI, Georgia - After two apparent assassination attempts against
Israeli diplomats in the South Caucasus, many fear this fractured and
strategically important region is being pulled into the rising
tensions between the West and Iran.
On Monday, police defused a `magnetic bomb' attached to a car
belonging to a local driver for the Israeli embassy in Georgia. On the
same day, a bomb exploded on an Israeli embassy vehicle in New Dehli,
India, injuring several, including the Israeli defense attaché's wife.
The attempted bombing in Georgia came less than three weeks after the
government of neighboring Azerbaijan announced it had arrested three
men who had been recruited and paid to assassinate the Israeli
ambassador to Azerbaijan and later attack a Jewish school in the
country.
Tehran accused Azerbaijan Monday of aiding Israeli intelligence forces
in assassinating Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, an Iranian nuclear scientist
who was also killed by a bomb magnetically attached to his car in
early January. At the time, a top Iranian official told a local
newspaper that "Iran's reaction will extend beyond the borders and
beyond the region.'
The official added: `None of those who ordered these attacks should
feel safe anywhere.'
All three countries that comprise the South Caucasus - Azerbaijan,
Georgia and Armenia - maintain important relationships with both the
West and Iran. Conflict between these two sides could destabilize the
fragile, but strategically crucial peace in the region.
Azerbaijan: Fears of an Iranian invasion
Azerbaijan is a major supplier of both natural gas and oil for Europe,
and several pipeline projects designed to reduce the EU's energy
dependence on Russia require Georgian territory and Azerbaijani
resources.
The two countries are also key links in the Northern Distribution
Network, a transit route supplying ISAF forces in Afghanistan. Since
Pakistan closed its borders to NATO air and ground transit in November
2011, this route is now the only means for the alliance to get
personnel and materials in and out of Afghanistan.
Since the revelation of the alleged Iranian assassination plot,
Azerbaijan and Iran have been furiously trading accusations. Tehran
has often threatened Azerbaijan with invasion should it allow Western
countries to use its territory in support of an operation against
Iran.
Georgia: Caught in the middle
Georgian authorities, meanwhile, have been cautious to assess blame in
the foiled bombing in its capital, Tbilisi, although Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu quickly pointed to Iran in the attacks.
Shota Utiashvili, head of the Georgian Interior Ministry's analytical
department publicly noted the similarities between the descriptions of
the defused bomb and the one used to kill the Iranian scientist, and
said it was designed to target the car's passengers.
Other top officials have downplayed the link, however, noting that the
bomb was found on the driver's personal car, not an embassy vehicle.
Furthermore, pro-government TV channels have made little mention of
the incident in domestic news broadcasts.
Georgia has cultivated close ties with Tehran since its brief 2008 war
with Russia, signing a visa-free travel agreement with the Islamic
Republic and opening up greater economic, academic and commercial
links in various agreements with the country.
However, Georgia's pro-Western president, Mikheil Saakashvili, has
also placed NATO and EU membership at the forefront of his
foreign-policy agenda, sending as many as 1,700 troops to
Afghanistan's most violent province in support of the alliance's war
effort there. Before the war with Russia, Georgia had also deployed
2,000 soldiers in Iraq.
Armenia: Trying to stick close to Iran
The country perhaps most vulnerable to the shifting circumstances is
Armenia, which relies on Iran for crucial political support and as a
route for about one third of its trade. Due to an ongoing territorial
dispute with Azerbaijan, Armenia's borders with both Azerbaijan and
Turkey have been closed since the early 1990s. It relies on Iran and
Russia - through Georgian territory - for its trade and energy supply.
Analysts in the Armenian capital, Yerevan, worry that a damaged or
preoccupied Iran could reopen its on-again-off-again war with
Azerbaijan over the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Armenia sent its deputy foreign minister to Iran this week,
`reinforcing' its relationship with Tehran `for the sake of
maintaining peace and stability,' according to Armenian state media.
The Russian factor
Meanwhile, Russia has announced it will hold military exercises in the
South Caucasus this year that are unprecedented in scale, involving
not only its units in its own North Caucasus territory, but also
battalions stationed in Armenia and the Georgian breakaway republic of
Abkhazia.
Over the past year, Russian officials have often warned that foreign
intervention in either Syria or Iran could lead to a "wider conflict"
in the region. Viewing the South Caucasus as its traditional buffer
zone against the Middle East, observers say Moscow is now reasserting
its presence in the region.
Stephen Blank, a research professor at the United States Army War
College, told the Asia Times earlier this month that leaders in the
region are now worried they will be pulled into an unpredictable
conflict.
"They are clearly concerned, as are the Russians, about the fact that
they're being dragged into a contingency outside their area that they
don't really have anything to say about," he said.
Source: URL: http://www.globalpost.com/
http://georgiandaily.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=22158&It emid=132
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress