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WAR WITH IRAN COULD REVERBERATE ACROSS GLOBE
Post Noon
http://postnoon.com/2012/02/20/war-with-iran-could-reverberate-across-globe/30546
Feb 20 2012
The Middle East and the West aren't the only regions that would be
hit by an Iran-Israel war
TBILISI: After two apparent assassination attempts against
Israeli diplomats in the South Caucasus, many fear this fractured
and strategically important region is being pulled into the rising
tensions between the West and Iran.
On Monday, police defused a "magnetic bomb" attached to a car belonging
to a local driver for the Israeli embassy in Georgia. On the same day,
a bomb exploded on an Israeli embassy vehicle in New Dehli, injuring
several, including the Israeli defense attache's wife.
The attempted bombing in Georgia came less than three weeks after
the government of neighboring Azerbaijan announced it had arrested
three men who had been recruited and paid to assassinate the Israeli
ambassador to Azerbaijan and later attack a Jewish school in the
country.
Tehran accused Azerbaijan Monday of aiding Israeli intelligence
forces in assassinating Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, an Iranian nuclear
scientist who was also killed by a bomb magnetically attached to
his car in early January. At the time, a top Iranian official told a
local newspaper that "Iran's reaction will extend beyond the borders
and beyond the region."
The official added: "None of those who ordered these attacks should
feel safe anywhere."
All three countries that comprise the South Caucasus - Azerbaijan,
Georgia and Armenia - maintain important relationships with both the
West and Iran. Conflict between these two sides could destabilize
the fragile, but strategically crucial peace in the region.
Azerbaijan: Fears of an Iranian invasion
Azerbaijan is a major supplier of both natural gas and oil for Europe,
and several pipeline projects designed to reduce the EU's energy
dependence on Russia require Georgian territory and Azerbaijani
resources.
The two countries are also key links in the Northern Distribution
Network, a transit route supplying ISAF forces in Afghanistan. Since
Pakistan closed its borders to NATO air and ground transit in
November 2011, this route is now the only means for the alliance to
get personnel and materials in and out of Afghanistan.
Since the revelation of the alleged Iranian assassination plot,
Azerbaijan and Iran have been furiously trading accusations. Tehran
has often threatened Azerbaijan with invasion should it allow Western
countries to use its territory in support of an operation against Iran.
Georgia: Caught in the middle
Georgian authorities, meanwhile, have been cautious to assess blame
in the foiled bombing in its capital, Tbilisi, although Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu quickly pointed to Iran in the attacks.
Shota Utiashvili, head of the Georgian Interior Ministry's analytical
department publicly noted the similarities between the descriptions
of the defused bomb and the one used to kill the Iranian scientist,
and said it was designed to target the car's passengers. Other top
officials have downplayed the link, however, noting that the bomb
was found on the driver's personal car, not an embassy vehicle.
Furthermore, pro-government TV channels have made little mention of
the incident in domestic news broadcasts.
Georgia has cultivated close ties with Tehran since its brief 2008 war
with Russia, signing a visa-free travel agreement with the Islamic
Republic and opening up greater economic, academic and commercial
links in various agreements with the country.
Armenia: Trying to stick close to Iran
The country perhaps most vulnerable to the shifting circumstances is
Armenia, which relies on Iran for crucial political support and as a
route for about one third of its trade. Due to an ongoing territorial
dispute with Azerbaijan, Armenia's borders with both Azerbaijan and
Turkey have been closed since the early 1990s. It relies on Iran and
Russia - through Georgian territory - for its trade and energy supply.
Analysts in the Armenian capital, Yerevan, worry that a damaged
or preoccupied Iran could reopen its on-again-off-again war with
Azerbaijan over the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.
The Russian factor
Meanwhile, Russia has announced it will hold military exercises
in the South Caucasus this year that are unprecedented in scale,
involving not only its units in its own North Caucasus territory,
but also battalions stationed in Armenia and the Georgian breakaway
republic of Abkhazia. Over the past year, Russian officials have often
warned that foreign intervention in either Syria or Iran could lead
to a "wider conflict" in the region. Viewing the South Caucasus as
its buffer zone against the Middle East, observers say Moscow is now
reasserting its presence in the region.
From: Baghdasarian
Post Noon
http://postnoon.com/2012/02/20/war-with-iran-could-reverberate-across-globe/30546
Feb 20 2012
The Middle East and the West aren't the only regions that would be
hit by an Iran-Israel war
TBILISI: After two apparent assassination attempts against
Israeli diplomats in the South Caucasus, many fear this fractured
and strategically important region is being pulled into the rising
tensions between the West and Iran.
On Monday, police defused a "magnetic bomb" attached to a car belonging
to a local driver for the Israeli embassy in Georgia. On the same day,
a bomb exploded on an Israeli embassy vehicle in New Dehli, injuring
several, including the Israeli defense attache's wife.
The attempted bombing in Georgia came less than three weeks after
the government of neighboring Azerbaijan announced it had arrested
three men who had been recruited and paid to assassinate the Israeli
ambassador to Azerbaijan and later attack a Jewish school in the
country.
Tehran accused Azerbaijan Monday of aiding Israeli intelligence
forces in assassinating Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, an Iranian nuclear
scientist who was also killed by a bomb magnetically attached to
his car in early January. At the time, a top Iranian official told a
local newspaper that "Iran's reaction will extend beyond the borders
and beyond the region."
The official added: "None of those who ordered these attacks should
feel safe anywhere."
All three countries that comprise the South Caucasus - Azerbaijan,
Georgia and Armenia - maintain important relationships with both the
West and Iran. Conflict between these two sides could destabilize
the fragile, but strategically crucial peace in the region.
Azerbaijan: Fears of an Iranian invasion
Azerbaijan is a major supplier of both natural gas and oil for Europe,
and several pipeline projects designed to reduce the EU's energy
dependence on Russia require Georgian territory and Azerbaijani
resources.
The two countries are also key links in the Northern Distribution
Network, a transit route supplying ISAF forces in Afghanistan. Since
Pakistan closed its borders to NATO air and ground transit in
November 2011, this route is now the only means for the alliance to
get personnel and materials in and out of Afghanistan.
Since the revelation of the alleged Iranian assassination plot,
Azerbaijan and Iran have been furiously trading accusations. Tehran
has often threatened Azerbaijan with invasion should it allow Western
countries to use its territory in support of an operation against Iran.
Georgia: Caught in the middle
Georgian authorities, meanwhile, have been cautious to assess blame
in the foiled bombing in its capital, Tbilisi, although Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu quickly pointed to Iran in the attacks.
Shota Utiashvili, head of the Georgian Interior Ministry's analytical
department publicly noted the similarities between the descriptions
of the defused bomb and the one used to kill the Iranian scientist,
and said it was designed to target the car's passengers. Other top
officials have downplayed the link, however, noting that the bomb
was found on the driver's personal car, not an embassy vehicle.
Furthermore, pro-government TV channels have made little mention of
the incident in domestic news broadcasts.
Georgia has cultivated close ties with Tehran since its brief 2008 war
with Russia, signing a visa-free travel agreement with the Islamic
Republic and opening up greater economic, academic and commercial
links in various agreements with the country.
Armenia: Trying to stick close to Iran
The country perhaps most vulnerable to the shifting circumstances is
Armenia, which relies on Iran for crucial political support and as a
route for about one third of its trade. Due to an ongoing territorial
dispute with Azerbaijan, Armenia's borders with both Azerbaijan and
Turkey have been closed since the early 1990s. It relies on Iran and
Russia - through Georgian territory - for its trade and energy supply.
Analysts in the Armenian capital, Yerevan, worry that a damaged
or preoccupied Iran could reopen its on-again-off-again war with
Azerbaijan over the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.
The Russian factor
Meanwhile, Russia has announced it will hold military exercises
in the South Caucasus this year that are unprecedented in scale,
involving not only its units in its own North Caucasus territory,
but also battalions stationed in Armenia and the Georgian breakaway
republic of Abkhazia. Over the past year, Russian officials have often
warned that foreign intervention in either Syria or Iran could lead
to a "wider conflict" in the region. Viewing the South Caucasus as
its buffer zone against the Middle East, observers say Moscow is now
reasserting its presence in the region.
From: Baghdasarian