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HIDDEN WAR IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS
By Nicholas Clayton
Asia Times Online
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/NB23Ag01.html
Feb 22 2012
TBILISI, Georgia - Two apparent assassination attempts against Israeli
diplomats in the South Caucasus over the past month have spread fears
in Georgia and Azerbaijan that the region may once again become a
battleground for great power politics.
Last Monday, a "magnetic bomb" was found attached to the car of
a driver for the Israeli Embassy in Georgia. The same day, a bomb
exploded on an Israeli Embassy vehicle in New Delhi, India, wounding
the wife of an Israeli defense official, among others.
Less than three weeks earlier, neighboring Azerbaijan announced it had
arrested three would-be assassins who were allegedly hired and paid to
kill the Israeli ambassador to Azerbaijan and attack a Jewish school.
Also last week, the Iranian Foreign Ministry handed the Dilbert
Azerbaijani ambassador a note of protest, alleging Azerbaijan aided
Israeli intelligence in assassinating an Iranian nuclear scientist in
early January, who was also killed by a bomb magnetically attached
to his car. Iran claims Azerbaijan knowingly allowed the assassins
to escape through its territory.
The two sides have been feverishly trading barbs throughout the
week, but Georgia has been notably silent. Although Georgia, led by
pro-Western President Mikheil Saakashvili, maintains close ties with
the United States, it has also worked to open up is relations with
Iran, signing a visa-free travel agreement and several other bilateral
arrangements with the Islamic Republic over the past two years.
Lincoln Mitchell, a professor at Columbia University's School of
International and Public Affairs, said that the incident underlined
the untenable nature of that position.
"If you let Iranians come in without visas, this kind of thing is
going to happen. Iran has made its views on Israel quite clear,
and the notion that some Iranians might come in and do bad things to
friends of America and friends of Georgia is not crazy," Mitchell said.
Mitchell, who has authored a book on the Saakashvili regime, said that
while there have so far been no overt attempts by Georgia's American
backers to persuade it to step back from Iran, that is about to change.
"For Georgia, which is a client of the US, whose base in the US is in
the far right, this is the one fight they can't pick because they'll
never win," he said.
But Arshin Adib-Moghaddam, a professor at the Center for Iranian
Studies at the University of London, said that although the South
Caucasus countries looked West for investment and security guarantees,
Iran for them was "inescapable, embedded in the region like few other
countries", and they would not rush to break ties.
"The pressures have been there for a long time, but Iran continues
to have cordial relations with these states because it is in their
mutual interest," he said. "The United States is far away when you
sit in Kazakhstan, Dushanbe and Baku. Regional leaders seem to be
aware that it is not in their interest to collude too one-sidedly
with one side or the other. It is a balancing act."
But while the other two countries in the South Caucasus - Azerbaijan
and Armenia - have worked to moderate their relationship between
regional players, Georgia is a different story.
Saakashvili is currently heading into a surprisingly competitive
parliamentary election in October, with a presidential election
following in 2013. The president has been coy about whether he will
step away from politics or return to power as prime minister - a post
strengthened by recent constitutional changes.
American officials have repeatedly said they hope to see a peaceful
transfer of power through free and fair elections in Georgia - a feat
the country has yet to accomplish since its 1991 independence from
the Soviet Union. Therefore, Mitchell said Saakashvili could take
advantage of his usefulness in this area to give himself the leeway
to maintain his preeminent position in the country's politics.
"If the Georgian government is smart, then [the current tensions
with Iran are] an opportunity to double down on their support for the
United States, and if they play it any other way then they are making
a huge mistake. Going into a tough two years for himself politically,
Saakashvili can cement his indispensability, which is wrong. He's
not indispensable. But it would be very easy for him to say, if there
is a war going on, that 'I have to stay on and be prime minister',"
Mitchell said.
For now, Georgian officials have the time to make up their mind as an
investigation into the bombings goes on. On the day of the attacks,
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu immediately pointed
the finger at Iran. Georgian officials have mostly been mum on the
incident, with some downplaying the attack, noting that the bomb was
attached to the local driver's personal car, not an embassy vehicle.
But, the president's administration released an ominous statement the
day the bomb was found, calling it "a serious challenge" to the state.
Many Caucasus observers worry that the assassination plots in Georgia
and Azerbaijan portend a return to the region serving as an espionage
no-man's-land like Switzerland before World War II.
"Everyone is using the South Caucasus for this hidden war. No doubt
about it," Alexander Rondeli, president of the Georgian Foundation
for Strategic and International Studies, told the BBC this week.
While there is not yet any concrete evidence tying Iran to the car
bombings, many analysts say there is no other country with the same
combination of motive, capability, and history of similar behavior
as Iran.
Furthermore, the attacks came one day after the anniversary of the
assassination of a top Hezbollah commander, ostensibly by Israeli
operatives. On Saturday, Hezbollah reiterated its alliance with Iran,
and its leader Hassan Nasrallah said this month that Iran had provided
it "moral, political and financial support in all its available forms
since 1982".
While Adib-Moghaddam said that it would be illogical for Iran to risk
its favorable relationships with countries like Georgia and India
for attacks that do negligible damage to the enemy, Wayne Merry,
a Eurasia expert at the American Foreign Policy Council, told Radio
Free Europe last week that the proximity of Azerbaijan and Georgia
and the relative ease at which Iranian operatives can access their
territories make Israeli facilities there the "most available targets".
"I think what we are looking at here is a low-level asymmetric conflict
between intelligence services - Iranian and Israeli - in which the
territory and sovereignty of other countries are not well-respected,"
he said.
While Georgian officials remain tight-lipped about the incidents,
Armenia and Azerbaijan spent the last month conferring with their
allies.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev visited North Atlantic Treaty
Organization headquarters in Brussels on February 15 and has also
met with Israeli President Shimon Peres and US Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton over the past few weeks. Armenia sent its deputy
foreign minister to Iran last week, "reinforcing" its relationship
with Tehran "for the sake of maintaining peace and stability",
according to Armenian state media.
Georgia is now left to decide if it can still keep its friends close,
and its friends' enemies closer.
Nicholas Clayton is a Tbilisi-based journalist and blogger
covering the Caucasus and the world. His blog can be found at
http://www.threekingsblog.com/
By Nicholas Clayton
Asia Times Online
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/NB23Ag01.html
Feb 22 2012
TBILISI, Georgia - Two apparent assassination attempts against Israeli
diplomats in the South Caucasus over the past month have spread fears
in Georgia and Azerbaijan that the region may once again become a
battleground for great power politics.
Last Monday, a "magnetic bomb" was found attached to the car of
a driver for the Israeli Embassy in Georgia. The same day, a bomb
exploded on an Israeli Embassy vehicle in New Delhi, India, wounding
the wife of an Israeli defense official, among others.
Less than three weeks earlier, neighboring Azerbaijan announced it had
arrested three would-be assassins who were allegedly hired and paid to
kill the Israeli ambassador to Azerbaijan and attack a Jewish school.
Also last week, the Iranian Foreign Ministry handed the Dilbert
Azerbaijani ambassador a note of protest, alleging Azerbaijan aided
Israeli intelligence in assassinating an Iranian nuclear scientist in
early January, who was also killed by a bomb magnetically attached
to his car. Iran claims Azerbaijan knowingly allowed the assassins
to escape through its territory.
The two sides have been feverishly trading barbs throughout the
week, but Georgia has been notably silent. Although Georgia, led by
pro-Western President Mikheil Saakashvili, maintains close ties with
the United States, it has also worked to open up is relations with
Iran, signing a visa-free travel agreement and several other bilateral
arrangements with the Islamic Republic over the past two years.
Lincoln Mitchell, a professor at Columbia University's School of
International and Public Affairs, said that the incident underlined
the untenable nature of that position.
"If you let Iranians come in without visas, this kind of thing is
going to happen. Iran has made its views on Israel quite clear,
and the notion that some Iranians might come in and do bad things to
friends of America and friends of Georgia is not crazy," Mitchell said.
Mitchell, who has authored a book on the Saakashvili regime, said that
while there have so far been no overt attempts by Georgia's American
backers to persuade it to step back from Iran, that is about to change.
"For Georgia, which is a client of the US, whose base in the US is in
the far right, this is the one fight they can't pick because they'll
never win," he said.
But Arshin Adib-Moghaddam, a professor at the Center for Iranian
Studies at the University of London, said that although the South
Caucasus countries looked West for investment and security guarantees,
Iran for them was "inescapable, embedded in the region like few other
countries", and they would not rush to break ties.
"The pressures have been there for a long time, but Iran continues
to have cordial relations with these states because it is in their
mutual interest," he said. "The United States is far away when you
sit in Kazakhstan, Dushanbe and Baku. Regional leaders seem to be
aware that it is not in their interest to collude too one-sidedly
with one side or the other. It is a balancing act."
But while the other two countries in the South Caucasus - Azerbaijan
and Armenia - have worked to moderate their relationship between
regional players, Georgia is a different story.
Saakashvili is currently heading into a surprisingly competitive
parliamentary election in October, with a presidential election
following in 2013. The president has been coy about whether he will
step away from politics or return to power as prime minister - a post
strengthened by recent constitutional changes.
American officials have repeatedly said they hope to see a peaceful
transfer of power through free and fair elections in Georgia - a feat
the country has yet to accomplish since its 1991 independence from
the Soviet Union. Therefore, Mitchell said Saakashvili could take
advantage of his usefulness in this area to give himself the leeway
to maintain his preeminent position in the country's politics.
"If the Georgian government is smart, then [the current tensions
with Iran are] an opportunity to double down on their support for the
United States, and if they play it any other way then they are making
a huge mistake. Going into a tough two years for himself politically,
Saakashvili can cement his indispensability, which is wrong. He's
not indispensable. But it would be very easy for him to say, if there
is a war going on, that 'I have to stay on and be prime minister',"
Mitchell said.
For now, Georgian officials have the time to make up their mind as an
investigation into the bombings goes on. On the day of the attacks,
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu immediately pointed
the finger at Iran. Georgian officials have mostly been mum on the
incident, with some downplaying the attack, noting that the bomb was
attached to the local driver's personal car, not an embassy vehicle.
But, the president's administration released an ominous statement the
day the bomb was found, calling it "a serious challenge" to the state.
Many Caucasus observers worry that the assassination plots in Georgia
and Azerbaijan portend a return to the region serving as an espionage
no-man's-land like Switzerland before World War II.
"Everyone is using the South Caucasus for this hidden war. No doubt
about it," Alexander Rondeli, president of the Georgian Foundation
for Strategic and International Studies, told the BBC this week.
While there is not yet any concrete evidence tying Iran to the car
bombings, many analysts say there is no other country with the same
combination of motive, capability, and history of similar behavior
as Iran.
Furthermore, the attacks came one day after the anniversary of the
assassination of a top Hezbollah commander, ostensibly by Israeli
operatives. On Saturday, Hezbollah reiterated its alliance with Iran,
and its leader Hassan Nasrallah said this month that Iran had provided
it "moral, political and financial support in all its available forms
since 1982".
While Adib-Moghaddam said that it would be illogical for Iran to risk
its favorable relationships with countries like Georgia and India
for attacks that do negligible damage to the enemy, Wayne Merry,
a Eurasia expert at the American Foreign Policy Council, told Radio
Free Europe last week that the proximity of Azerbaijan and Georgia
and the relative ease at which Iranian operatives can access their
territories make Israeli facilities there the "most available targets".
"I think what we are looking at here is a low-level asymmetric conflict
between intelligence services - Iranian and Israeli - in which the
territory and sovereignty of other countries are not well-respected,"
he said.
While Georgian officials remain tight-lipped about the incidents,
Armenia and Azerbaijan spent the last month conferring with their
allies.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev visited North Atlantic Treaty
Organization headquarters in Brussels on February 15 and has also
met with Israeli President Shimon Peres and US Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton over the past few weeks. Armenia sent its deputy
foreign minister to Iran last week, "reinforcing" its relationship
with Tehran "for the sake of maintaining peace and stability",
according to Armenian state media.
Georgia is now left to decide if it can still keep its friends close,
and its friends' enemies closer.
Nicholas Clayton is a Tbilisi-based journalist and blogger
covering the Caucasus and the world. His blog can be found at
http://www.threekingsblog.com/