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WAR WITH IRAN WOUD BRING UNCERTAINTY TO THE CAUCASUS
By Zaza Jgharkava
Georgia Today
http://www.georgiatoday.ge/article_details.php?id=9898
Feb 23 2012
Georgia
Many Western politicians and experts believe that it is impossible to
resolve the nuclear stand-off with Iran without embarking on a land
operation. Failed terrorist attempts in Tbilisi and Baku confirm
these presumptions. In this context, many feel that to maintain a
friendship with the United States and Israel, the costs to Tbilisi
and Baku will be too high.
Zerkalo, a newspaper issued in Baku, directly writes about the threats
that Azerbaijan and Georgia may face in the case a military operation
launched against Iran. The publication notes that in this scenario,
Iran will attempt to damage the strategic interests of the West in
the region.
According to Zerkalo, Turkey and Israel are protected well with
anti-air systems. "In terms of security, Azerbaijan and Georgia are
the weak chains in the region. Strategic objects important for the
West are located on their territory," the article explains. There is
also talk of oil and gas pipelines. "Neither Azerbaijan, nor Georgia
have the ability to prevent such attacks."
The talk of possible war has become particularly acute after the failed
terrorist attempts at the Israeli Embassy in Tbilisi on February 13;
and after Azerbaijan's security personnel foiled an attempt at killing
the Ambassador of Israel, the local Rabi and other prominent Jews
residing in Baku in the end of January.
The French publication Le Monde also draws attention to the threats
Georgia may face in the event of war with Iran. Le Monde points out
that a military operation against Iran may give reason to Moscow for
exercising its power in the region, which it considers to be within
its "sphere of privileged interest."
The author of the article specifically underscores the military
exercises Caucasus 2012, a scenario in which, based on Russian sources,
envisages cutting-off the route to the Russian base located in Armenia
in the case of conflict. "Georgia remembers well the maneuvers of
2008, which were followed by the invasion and partial occupation of
Georgian territory," Le Monde writes.
Many people understandably wonder whether Presidents Saakashvili and
Obama discussed the Iranian issue at the meeting in the White House at
the end of January. However, no official commentary was made regarding
the issue.
Nevertheless, the fact remains that as time passes, there are
increasingly dark clouds forming above Iran. U.S. aircraft carriers
are already drifting positioned in the Indian Ocean and the Persian
Gulf, and a French aircraft carrier will soon join them. Official
statements from Washington stating that the US and Israel plan to
act jointly on the issue of Iran, further add to the tension
Naturally, Iran is preparing for a possible confrontation. In response
to United Nations and EU resolutions, Iran has stopped oil export
to Europe and has begun its own naval trainings to demonstrate its
military potential.
Russia's strategic trainings in the North Caucasus are planned for
autumn. Caucasus 2012 will be held in September and will be of a
strategic rather than of an operative-tactical nature. Various units
within the Russian Armed Forces, as well as law enforcement agencies
will participate in the trainings. The armed forces deployed on
the occupied territories of Georgia will also participate in this
training exercise.
These exercises aim to develop actions that can provide increased
intelligence capabilities, anti-air defenses and protect the rear
portion of the army. As Russia's Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes, these
exercises illustrate the fact that Russia is working on a program
of maneuvers that envisage a possible war directed by US and Israel
against Iran.
Therefore, the main players in the region: the United States, Russia
and Europe, to say nothing of Israel and Iran, are organizing their
own military preparations throughout the South Caucasus.
Who should Georgia expect the major threat from? Looking at the
possible dangers, the only threat Georgia may face is from Russia,
which will use a military conflagration with Iran to boost its
influence in the South Caucasus. Despite the fact that such a
perspective is inevitable in the case of war with Iran, the Iranian
war perspective itself looks a bit exaggerated, especially due to
the ongoing conflict in Syria.
Waging war against Iran, even after solving the conflict in Syria seems
unnecessary, as there are better means than bombs to "bring Tehran
to its senses". The sanctions put in place by the United States and
Europe has already brought the first results- the national currency
of Iran has fallen while prices on food products have increased. The
price for one kilogram of meat on the Iranian market reached 30 USD,
one kilogram of rice - 5 USD.
The average monthly salary in Iran is around 350 USD. In March,
parliamentary elections are planned in Iran. Thus, President
Ahmadinejad and his regime may exit the political arena without
the bombs.
By Zaza Jgharkava
Georgia Today
http://www.georgiatoday.ge/article_details.php?id=9898
Feb 23 2012
Georgia
Many Western politicians and experts believe that it is impossible to
resolve the nuclear stand-off with Iran without embarking on a land
operation. Failed terrorist attempts in Tbilisi and Baku confirm
these presumptions. In this context, many feel that to maintain a
friendship with the United States and Israel, the costs to Tbilisi
and Baku will be too high.
Zerkalo, a newspaper issued in Baku, directly writes about the threats
that Azerbaijan and Georgia may face in the case a military operation
launched against Iran. The publication notes that in this scenario,
Iran will attempt to damage the strategic interests of the West in
the region.
According to Zerkalo, Turkey and Israel are protected well with
anti-air systems. "In terms of security, Azerbaijan and Georgia are
the weak chains in the region. Strategic objects important for the
West are located on their territory," the article explains. There is
also talk of oil and gas pipelines. "Neither Azerbaijan, nor Georgia
have the ability to prevent such attacks."
The talk of possible war has become particularly acute after the failed
terrorist attempts at the Israeli Embassy in Tbilisi on February 13;
and after Azerbaijan's security personnel foiled an attempt at killing
the Ambassador of Israel, the local Rabi and other prominent Jews
residing in Baku in the end of January.
The French publication Le Monde also draws attention to the threats
Georgia may face in the event of war with Iran. Le Monde points out
that a military operation against Iran may give reason to Moscow for
exercising its power in the region, which it considers to be within
its "sphere of privileged interest."
The author of the article specifically underscores the military
exercises Caucasus 2012, a scenario in which, based on Russian sources,
envisages cutting-off the route to the Russian base located in Armenia
in the case of conflict. "Georgia remembers well the maneuvers of
2008, which were followed by the invasion and partial occupation of
Georgian territory," Le Monde writes.
Many people understandably wonder whether Presidents Saakashvili and
Obama discussed the Iranian issue at the meeting in the White House at
the end of January. However, no official commentary was made regarding
the issue.
Nevertheless, the fact remains that as time passes, there are
increasingly dark clouds forming above Iran. U.S. aircraft carriers
are already drifting positioned in the Indian Ocean and the Persian
Gulf, and a French aircraft carrier will soon join them. Official
statements from Washington stating that the US and Israel plan to
act jointly on the issue of Iran, further add to the tension
Naturally, Iran is preparing for a possible confrontation. In response
to United Nations and EU resolutions, Iran has stopped oil export
to Europe and has begun its own naval trainings to demonstrate its
military potential.
Russia's strategic trainings in the North Caucasus are planned for
autumn. Caucasus 2012 will be held in September and will be of a
strategic rather than of an operative-tactical nature. Various units
within the Russian Armed Forces, as well as law enforcement agencies
will participate in the trainings. The armed forces deployed on
the occupied territories of Georgia will also participate in this
training exercise.
These exercises aim to develop actions that can provide increased
intelligence capabilities, anti-air defenses and protect the rear
portion of the army. As Russia's Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes, these
exercises illustrate the fact that Russia is working on a program
of maneuvers that envisage a possible war directed by US and Israel
against Iran.
Therefore, the main players in the region: the United States, Russia
and Europe, to say nothing of Israel and Iran, are organizing their
own military preparations throughout the South Caucasus.
Who should Georgia expect the major threat from? Looking at the
possible dangers, the only threat Georgia may face is from Russia,
which will use a military conflagration with Iran to boost its
influence in the South Caucasus. Despite the fact that such a
perspective is inevitable in the case of war with Iran, the Iranian
war perspective itself looks a bit exaggerated, especially due to
the ongoing conflict in Syria.
Waging war against Iran, even after solving the conflict in Syria seems
unnecessary, as there are better means than bombs to "bring Tehran
to its senses". The sanctions put in place by the United States and
Europe has already brought the first results- the national currency
of Iran has fallen while prices on food products have increased. The
price for one kilogram of meat on the Iranian market reached 30 USD,
one kilogram of rice - 5 USD.
The average monthly salary in Iran is around 350 USD. In March,
parliamentary elections are planned in Iran. Thus, President
Ahmadinejad and his regime may exit the political arena without
the bombs.