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Will Russia Yield On Syria?

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  • Will Russia Yield On Syria?

    WILL RUSSIA YIELD ON SYRIA?
    Suren Grigoryan

    Foreign Policy Journal
    http://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2012/02/24/will-russia-yield-on-syria/
    Feb 24 2012

    Russia and China's vetoes on the UN Security Council resolution
    condemning Syrian government's violent crackdown on opposition
    and aimed at imposing greater international sanctions on Damascus
    were largely viewed in the West, as well as in the Arab world, as a
    critical obstacle for stopping the on-going bloodshed on the Syrian
    streets. However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's subsequent
    visit to Damascus (on February 7th) put Russia in a position of being
    the Bashar al-Assad regime's main protector and therefore welcomed
    the lion's share of international pressure and criticism. Since the
    criticism and pressure are growing concurrently with increasing number
    of civilian deaths and worsening humanitarian situation in Syria,
    the question arises, will Russia change its position on Syrian issue?

    I think the timing of Moscow's activation on Syrian issue prompts the
    answer to the question. By the time Russia's Foreign Minister visited
    Damascus, there was already enough ground to assume that the political
    regime in Syria was steadily heading toward a Libyan scenario. Assad's
    denial to step down and transfer power to his deputy (a suggestion
    included in the Arab League's plan), his belated and perhaps idle
    efforts aimed at reforming the country's political system, and his
    overt determination to stifle political opposition by military terror
    had made his regime's political future extremely questionable even
    before Lavrov's arrival to Damascus. It is hardly plausible that
    Kremlin's decision-makers have underestimated these factors when
    backing Syrian regime vis-a-vis international (particularly Western)
    community. Then what's the point of standing behind the regime and
    its leader who has crossed all possible red lines and is virtually
    condemned to political fiasco?

    Moscow's move was aimed at gaining an additional "platform" for
    bargaining with the West. Given the forthcoming presidential elections
    in Russian Federation such occasion may appear quite soon. The mass
    demonstrations against the candidacy of ruling party (United Russia)
    candidate and incumbent Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin, that started
    in December 2011 in Moscow revealed dissatisfaction by Putin's planned
    return within many segments of Russian society. Alarming numbers of
    demonstrators proves that despite the affluence of administrative,
    financial, media, and other resources that Russia's ruling party
    may employ for securing Putin's victory, the latter's ascendance
    to power may be significantly thorny. Under these circumstances,
    Russia's ruling class may exclude neither undesirable outcome of
    the elections nor post-election turbulence. If such problems arise,
    Russia's political regime will become extremely susceptible to Western
    critique and even interference (whatever it implies), which in turn
    may damage Putin's team standing significantly.

    Here, Moscow may use its position on the Syrian issue as a kind
    of ruse for keeping the West, and particularly the United States,
    away from Russia's internal political "rumblings". In other words,
    Moscow apparently counts on yielding Syria to the West in return
    to the latter's non-interference to Russia's pre- and post-election
    political life. It is worth mentioning also that the urgency of Syrian
    issue increases its bargaining value day by day.

    Russian President Dmitry Medvedev (RIA Novosti / Sergey Guneev)
    Hence, as election day in Russia comes closer, one may expect Moscow
    to change its position in regard to the Syrian issue literally at
    first convenient occasion to do so. According to the Russian daily
    Nezavisimaya Gazeta, in November 2011, Russia's President Medvedev
    stated that if Bashal al-Assad is incapable of managing transformation
    in his country, he has to leave. Thus Russia's leader made clear that
    Moscow is leaving the paths for Assad's exit open, and may change
    its position if needed.

    As for China's position on the same issue, it is unlikely that Beijing
    will stand alone with the Syrian government once Russia leaves it. By
    calling recently on the Syrian government and the country's opposition
    to halt acts of violence immediately, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister,
    Mr. Zhai Jun, basically expressed Beijing's obsession with the burden
    it assumed by vetoing the UN resolution.

    Thus, as violence in Syria intensifies and international concerns with
    the situation in this country increases, one may expect revision of
    Russia's, and then China's, position on dealing with Syrian crisis,
    which will give way to greater international pressure on Syrian
    government and possibly intervention.

    Suren Grigoryan is a political analyst, who worked for the Ministry
    of Defense of Armenia for more than 10 years. His experiences in
    the Armenian armed forces range from commanding troops in the field
    to advising the government on the legal aspects of international
    military cooperation and defense policy formation. Concurrently,
    he provided violence risk assessment in the CIS countries for the
    London based Exclusive Analysis Company that forecasts commercially
    relevant political and violent risks worldwide. He also taught graduate
    course on Comparative Politics called "The Politics of Empire and
    Post-Imperialism" at the Yerevan State Linguistic University of
    Armenia. Suren has two Bachelor degrees. The first is in Law, the
    second, is in military command and engineering. He earned his Master's
    degree (MSc) in Comparative Politics at the London School of Economics
    and Political Science (United Kingdom). The area of Suren's expertise
    and interest is the politics of the Post-Soviet space and the Middle
    East. Currently he resides in the US.

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