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Azerbaijan would be highly vulnerable to an Iranian military counterattack
Sat 25 February 2012 09:16 GMT | 9:16 Local Time
Donald N.Jensen
News.Az interviews Donald N. Jensen, resident fellow at the Center for
Transatlantic Relations at the USA's Johns Hopkins University.
Azerbaijani and NATO leadership recently confirmed the intention to
broaden interaction including on the line of Afghanistan at the recent
talks in Brussels. What are the prospects for this cooperation?
The meeting between the two leaders demonstrated the constructive
relationship between Azerbaijan and NATO and outlined the prospects for
further work in the short to medium term. After the NATO withdrawal from
Afghanistan in 2014, however, Azerbaijan's relative strategic importance to
the alliance may decline, with the political momentum for cooperation
slowing.
What do you think about Azerbaijan's intention to finance strengthening
of the Afghani security forces?
I welcome Baku's offer of cooperation, as does, I believe, the US and
NATO. The ability of the Afghan army to effectively provide security for
that country after the NATO withdrawal, however, is in doubt. Any
contribution Azerbaijan can make, therefore, will be invaluable, even as
the financial commitment needed to achieve are goals nay well be
prohibitive.
What can be attractive in NATO's Chicago's summit for such countries as
Azerbaijan?
The agenda will largely focus on Missile Defense, the NATO operation in
Afghanistan, Iran, and perhaps relations with Moscow. Azerbaijan's
interests are thus likely to be indirect at best. Further expansion of the
alliance will not be on the table for the foreseeable future.
What do you think about Azerbaijan's possible role in anti-Iranian
operation?
If there is Western military action against Iran I expect Azerbaijan, as a
friend of Israel, to be quietly supportive (even as it continues to crack
down on Iranian influence inside the country). However, Azerbaijan would
be highly vulnerable to an Iranian military counterattack (indeed, any
retaliatory moves Tehran may make are likely to be targeted in part against
US regional allies). Baku will also have to worry that its domestic public
reaction could favor Iran. This could be a potential factor in
destabilizing the Aliyev regime.
Car the war in Iran provoke new military actions in Karabakh?
Far right Russian politician Vladimir Zhirinovsky earlier this week
predicted an Azeri invasion of Nagorno Karabakh if war broke out between
Iran and the West, with Turkey supporting Baku. I think this is highly
unlikely, Azerbaijan will have enough to worry about elsewhere. Russia,
however, could take advantage of a conflict to expand its influence in the
region, including in the South Caucasus
News.Az
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Sat 25 February 2012 09:16 GMT | 9:16 Local Time
Donald N.Jensen
News.Az interviews Donald N. Jensen, resident fellow at the Center for
Transatlantic Relations at the USA's Johns Hopkins University.
Azerbaijani and NATO leadership recently confirmed the intention to
broaden interaction including on the line of Afghanistan at the recent
talks in Brussels. What are the prospects for this cooperation?
The meeting between the two leaders demonstrated the constructive
relationship between Azerbaijan and NATO and outlined the prospects for
further work in the short to medium term. After the NATO withdrawal from
Afghanistan in 2014, however, Azerbaijan's relative strategic importance to
the alliance may decline, with the political momentum for cooperation
slowing.
What do you think about Azerbaijan's intention to finance strengthening
of the Afghani security forces?
I welcome Baku's offer of cooperation, as does, I believe, the US and
NATO. The ability of the Afghan army to effectively provide security for
that country after the NATO withdrawal, however, is in doubt. Any
contribution Azerbaijan can make, therefore, will be invaluable, even as
the financial commitment needed to achieve are goals nay well be
prohibitive.
What can be attractive in NATO's Chicago's summit for such countries as
Azerbaijan?
The agenda will largely focus on Missile Defense, the NATO operation in
Afghanistan, Iran, and perhaps relations with Moscow. Azerbaijan's
interests are thus likely to be indirect at best. Further expansion of the
alliance will not be on the table for the foreseeable future.
What do you think about Azerbaijan's possible role in anti-Iranian
operation?
If there is Western military action against Iran I expect Azerbaijan, as a
friend of Israel, to be quietly supportive (even as it continues to crack
down on Iranian influence inside the country). However, Azerbaijan would
be highly vulnerable to an Iranian military counterattack (indeed, any
retaliatory moves Tehran may make are likely to be targeted in part against
US regional allies). Baku will also have to worry that its domestic public
reaction could favor Iran. This could be a potential factor in
destabilizing the Aliyev regime.
Car the war in Iran provoke new military actions in Karabakh?
Far right Russian politician Vladimir Zhirinovsky earlier this week
predicted an Azeri invasion of Nagorno Karabakh if war broke out between
Iran and the West, with Turkey supporting Baku. I think this is highly
unlikely, Azerbaijan will have enough to worry about elsewhere. Russia,
however, could take advantage of a conflict to expand its influence in the
region, including in the South Caucasus
News.Az
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress