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MilAz.info, Azerbaijan
Dec 30 2011
Vladimir Socor: `France's legislation to criminalize denial of the
`Armenian genocide' is casting doubt on the objectivity of French
mediation in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict'
12:18 30-12-2011
`Turkey remains the only major player with pro-Azerbaijan sympathies,
Ankara seeks a role commensurate with its regional strength and
influence'
A prominent US analyst on South Caucasus Vladimir Socor, who is a
Senior Fellow at the Washington-based Jamestown Foundation, is worried
that France's legislation to criminalize denial of the `Armenian
genocide' is casting doubt on the objectivity of French mediation in
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, APA's correspondent reports from the US
Capital.
Mr. Socor, who recently analyzed the latest situation over
Nagorno-Karabakh peace process and Minsk Group's activity, believes
that, unlike Russia and the US, France acts in a purely national
capacity as a Minsk Group co-chair.
`France does not represent the European Union in this forum, and does
not consider yielding its co-chairmanship to the EU. Given the steady
growth of EU interests in the South Caucasus, this negotiating format
looks anachronistic without the EU', he noted.
In the meanwhile, the analyst adds, in the run-up to the French
presidential election, the incumbent President Sarkozy has initiated
legislation to criminalize denial of the `Armenian genocide.'
`Sarkozy seeks to outbid the Socialist presidential candidate,
Francois Hollande, who had recently launched a similar initiative,
vying for the Armenian diaspora's votes. Such gestures are not easily
dismissed as short-term electioneering. They do impact on foreign
policy and diplomacy, directly provoking Turkey, and indirectly
casting doubt on the objectivity of French mediation in the
Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict', he added.
Overall, the analyst believes, the US and France ultimately conceded
the role of lead mediator to Russia since 2008, drawing their
conclusions from the Russia-Georgia war.
During 2009-2011, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Foreign
Minister Lavrov hosted serial meetings with their Armenian and
Azerbaijani counterparts, aiming to draft a general framework for a
negotiated settlement of the Karabakh conflict. The US and French
presidents, Barack Obama and Nicolas Sarkozy, endorsed Medvedev's
mediation through public statements during various summit meetings
with the Russian president.
`Meanwhile, the Minsk Group's three co-chairs are acting jointly at
the ambassadorial level. But the real action has moved to the top
level in Russia, with Medvedev and Lavrov operating as mediators
outside the triple co-chairmanship. Vladimir Putin, now
president-in-waiting, seems set to replace Medvedev as lead arbitrator
in these negotiations after Russia's presidential election', he says.
According to the analyst, today the co-chairs try to maintain a façade
of unity and equality of formal status. However, the triple
co-chairmanship is clearly asymmetrical by now, its balance tilting in
Russia's favor. This arrangement is not final or irreversible, but has
taken shape in practice and by informal consent.
`From first among equals, Russia has become `more equal' than the
other two mediators by all criteria: level of engagement, frequency of
meetings, independent initiatives and leverage building. Russia is
Armenia's ally, with troops in place effectively guaranteeing
Armenia's territorial gains at Azerbaijan's expense. Moscow, however,
can leverage that trump card on Yerevan as well as on Baku in
mediating between them', he adds.
`Overall, Russia capitalizes on its pre-existing advantages in terms
of range of interests and military weight in the region. The South
Caucasus is a higher priority for Moscow than it is for Washington.
This misbalance of interests plays in Russia's favor. It can be
rectified, however, if the European Union becomes a more active player
in this region, commensurate with its capacities and its interests'.
Speaking about the other regional powers in his one of the recent
reports at the Jamestown Foundation, the analyst mentioned that Turkey
remains the only major player with pro-Azerbaijan sympathies.
`Turkey is a member of the original Minsk Group, but not of the
co-chairmanship that runs the process. The delegation of authority,
from the original Minsk Group to the triple co-chairmanship, has
barred Turkey from a direct role in these negotiations. Ankara seeks a
role commensurate with its regional strength and influence', he
mentions.
Dec 30 2011
Vladimir Socor: `France's legislation to criminalize denial of the
`Armenian genocide' is casting doubt on the objectivity of French
mediation in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict'
12:18 30-12-2011
`Turkey remains the only major player with pro-Azerbaijan sympathies,
Ankara seeks a role commensurate with its regional strength and
influence'
A prominent US analyst on South Caucasus Vladimir Socor, who is a
Senior Fellow at the Washington-based Jamestown Foundation, is worried
that France's legislation to criminalize denial of the `Armenian
genocide' is casting doubt on the objectivity of French mediation in
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, APA's correspondent reports from the US
Capital.
Mr. Socor, who recently analyzed the latest situation over
Nagorno-Karabakh peace process and Minsk Group's activity, believes
that, unlike Russia and the US, France acts in a purely national
capacity as a Minsk Group co-chair.
`France does not represent the European Union in this forum, and does
not consider yielding its co-chairmanship to the EU. Given the steady
growth of EU interests in the South Caucasus, this negotiating format
looks anachronistic without the EU', he noted.
In the meanwhile, the analyst adds, in the run-up to the French
presidential election, the incumbent President Sarkozy has initiated
legislation to criminalize denial of the `Armenian genocide.'
`Sarkozy seeks to outbid the Socialist presidential candidate,
Francois Hollande, who had recently launched a similar initiative,
vying for the Armenian diaspora's votes. Such gestures are not easily
dismissed as short-term electioneering. They do impact on foreign
policy and diplomacy, directly provoking Turkey, and indirectly
casting doubt on the objectivity of French mediation in the
Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict', he added.
Overall, the analyst believes, the US and France ultimately conceded
the role of lead mediator to Russia since 2008, drawing their
conclusions from the Russia-Georgia war.
During 2009-2011, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Foreign
Minister Lavrov hosted serial meetings with their Armenian and
Azerbaijani counterparts, aiming to draft a general framework for a
negotiated settlement of the Karabakh conflict. The US and French
presidents, Barack Obama and Nicolas Sarkozy, endorsed Medvedev's
mediation through public statements during various summit meetings
with the Russian president.
`Meanwhile, the Minsk Group's three co-chairs are acting jointly at
the ambassadorial level. But the real action has moved to the top
level in Russia, with Medvedev and Lavrov operating as mediators
outside the triple co-chairmanship. Vladimir Putin, now
president-in-waiting, seems set to replace Medvedev as lead arbitrator
in these negotiations after Russia's presidential election', he says.
According to the analyst, today the co-chairs try to maintain a façade
of unity and equality of formal status. However, the triple
co-chairmanship is clearly asymmetrical by now, its balance tilting in
Russia's favor. This arrangement is not final or irreversible, but has
taken shape in practice and by informal consent.
`From first among equals, Russia has become `more equal' than the
other two mediators by all criteria: level of engagement, frequency of
meetings, independent initiatives and leverage building. Russia is
Armenia's ally, with troops in place effectively guaranteeing
Armenia's territorial gains at Azerbaijan's expense. Moscow, however,
can leverage that trump card on Yerevan as well as on Baku in
mediating between them', he adds.
`Overall, Russia capitalizes on its pre-existing advantages in terms
of range of interests and military weight in the region. The South
Caucasus is a higher priority for Moscow than it is for Washington.
This misbalance of interests plays in Russia's favor. It can be
rectified, however, if the European Union becomes a more active player
in this region, commensurate with its capacities and its interests'.
Speaking about the other regional powers in his one of the recent
reports at the Jamestown Foundation, the analyst mentioned that Turkey
remains the only major player with pro-Azerbaijan sympathies.
`Turkey is a member of the original Minsk Group, but not of the
co-chairmanship that runs the process. The delegation of authority,
from the original Minsk Group to the triple co-chairmanship, has
barred Turkey from a direct role in these negotiations. Ankara seeks a
role commensurate with its regional strength and influence', he
mentions.