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Today's Zaman, Turkey
Jan 1 2012
Will the spring mood in Turkish-American relations last in 2012?
0 11 January 2012 / ALI H. ASLAN, WASHINGTON
The answer to this question depends on whether the conditions that
created the present mood change this year.
Of course, this includes the strong personal relationship between
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip ErdoÄ?an and US President Barack Obama. The
two leaders work diligently to keep relations on track. ErdoÄ?an is one
of the leaders with whom the American president communicates most
frequently. For Obama, who wants to reconcile with the Muslim world
and take control of the process of change in the Arab world, keeping
Turkey close is a number one priority; Turkey's influence is visibly
growing in the region, and getting along with its popular prime
minister is a primary concern for Washington.
The advantages of a close relationship with the US president for Prime
Minister ErdoÄ?an, in both domestic and international politics, cannot
be ignored. It is to Turkey's advantage that Obama will remain in
office until January 2013, even if he loses the presidential election
in November 2012. It is also very likely that the Obama administration
will avoid any risky moves that would jeopardize victory in the
election year. As a president who promised to end American armed
conflicts and fulfilled some of these promises, Obama will refrain
from new ventures at a time when the economy is not in such good
shape. This means for Ankara that an American conflict with Iran, a
scenario that would test US-Turkish relations, is less likely during
this period of time. In response to efforts from Iran to expand its
influence in the region, Washington will exhaust all nonviolent
options. To this end Turkey -- along with Saudi Arabia, as the Sunni
power that would balance Iran in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon -- will
remain significant in American strategic calculations.
The US will be preoccupied with the election for most of 2012. This
may raise some problems for Turkish-American relations. The Armenian
and Greek lobbies may pressure politicians to adopt resolutions that
would upset Turkey including, potentially, legislation pertaining to
the alleged Armenian genocide. But Turkey's inclusion in the NATO
missile shield project, its balancing role in Iraq, ability to
confront the Assad regime in Syria, growing economy and soft power
will convince the White House that Ankara is an asset for US national
security and other interests abroad. Despite tensions between Ankara
with Tel Aviv, the Israeli lobby has not taken a hard line towards
Congress vis-Ã-vis Turkey. If Turkish-Israeli tensions remain low, as
they have these final months of 2011, the possibility that the Jewish
front will become angry with Turkey and take it out on Turkey via the
US Congress is remote. Turkey's preoccupation with domestic security
problems that make it impossible to fulfill its obligations within
NATO, its continued violation of the territorial integrity of Iraq and
deterioration of relations with the Kurds in northern Iraq will not
serve American interests. Therefore, cooperation between Turkey and
the US to combat the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), one of the
crucial elements of this partnership, will remain.
From: A. Papazian
Jan 1 2012
Will the spring mood in Turkish-American relations last in 2012?
0 11 January 2012 / ALI H. ASLAN, WASHINGTON
The answer to this question depends on whether the conditions that
created the present mood change this year.
Of course, this includes the strong personal relationship between
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip ErdoÄ?an and US President Barack Obama. The
two leaders work diligently to keep relations on track. ErdoÄ?an is one
of the leaders with whom the American president communicates most
frequently. For Obama, who wants to reconcile with the Muslim world
and take control of the process of change in the Arab world, keeping
Turkey close is a number one priority; Turkey's influence is visibly
growing in the region, and getting along with its popular prime
minister is a primary concern for Washington.
The advantages of a close relationship with the US president for Prime
Minister ErdoÄ?an, in both domestic and international politics, cannot
be ignored. It is to Turkey's advantage that Obama will remain in
office until January 2013, even if he loses the presidential election
in November 2012. It is also very likely that the Obama administration
will avoid any risky moves that would jeopardize victory in the
election year. As a president who promised to end American armed
conflicts and fulfilled some of these promises, Obama will refrain
from new ventures at a time when the economy is not in such good
shape. This means for Ankara that an American conflict with Iran, a
scenario that would test US-Turkish relations, is less likely during
this period of time. In response to efforts from Iran to expand its
influence in the region, Washington will exhaust all nonviolent
options. To this end Turkey -- along with Saudi Arabia, as the Sunni
power that would balance Iran in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon -- will
remain significant in American strategic calculations.
The US will be preoccupied with the election for most of 2012. This
may raise some problems for Turkish-American relations. The Armenian
and Greek lobbies may pressure politicians to adopt resolutions that
would upset Turkey including, potentially, legislation pertaining to
the alleged Armenian genocide. But Turkey's inclusion in the NATO
missile shield project, its balancing role in Iraq, ability to
confront the Assad regime in Syria, growing economy and soft power
will convince the White House that Ankara is an asset for US national
security and other interests abroad. Despite tensions between Ankara
with Tel Aviv, the Israeli lobby has not taken a hard line towards
Congress vis-Ã-vis Turkey. If Turkish-Israeli tensions remain low, as
they have these final months of 2011, the possibility that the Jewish
front will become angry with Turkey and take it out on Turkey via the
US Congress is remote. Turkey's preoccupation with domestic security
problems that make it impossible to fulfill its obligations within
NATO, its continued violation of the territorial integrity of Iraq and
deterioration of relations with the Kurds in northern Iraq will not
serve American interests. Therefore, cooperation between Turkey and
the US to combat the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), one of the
crucial elements of this partnership, will remain.
From: A. Papazian